1 IMMIGRATION AND THE ECONOMY LABOR MARKETS, EMPLOYMENT AND PRODUCTIVITY Giovanni Peri Presentation at the Institute for Poverty Research, January 30 th 2014
2 Minimalistic reference point: Internet search Immigrants and Jobs Immigrants and the Economy One finds two types of websites
3 Type 1: Immigrants take jobs and depress wages Immigrants take jobs They depress wages. Without them 8 million more jobs for Americans. Unemployment would be eliminated.
4 Type 2: immigrants create jobs and help wages Immigrants stimulate growth They take jobs that Americans do not want Help firm expand with jobcreation effects. Without them whole sectors (agriculture, construction, hospitality) would be in crisis
5 Minimal bar, provided by Internet: Immigrants are really hurting American jobs. Or they are really helping them. Or they are really doing something in between.
6 My talk will walk you through 1. Man in the street : Immigrants increase supply of labor and hurt native wages and job opportunities. Simplest framework. 2. Economist, Partial Equilibrium Immigrants increase supply of some skills/productive abilities more than others. There are heterogeneous effects. 3. Economist, General Equilibrium Immigrants generate native workers and firm- responses. We need to account for these margins.
7 Simplest Model (supply and demand) Identify different labor markets, regions/metro areas. Inflow of immigrants in those markets and response of native wages and employment. Assumptions: immigrants identical to natives. Specialization, capital and technology are fixed. Prediction: Negative effects if nothing else changes (the short run?) When capital adjusts there are no effects (long run?)
8 Shift in labor supply, then in labor demand
9 9 Variation of immigrants, state-level Percentage of foreign-born in Employment: % 30.00% California U.S.A. West Virginia 31.98% 33.17% 25.00% 24.59% 20.00% Percentage 15.00% 16.06% 13.00% 14.40% 10.00% 5.00% 9.40% 5.90% 10.00% 5.10% 6.40% 8.90% 0.00% 0.30% 0.20% 0.50% 0.80% 1.00% 1.10% Peri, Year April 2011
10 20 years of Empirical findings 27 published paper between 1995 and Estimates. Regress ln(wage natives) on Immigrants as share of employment and controls. Average Estimate of the effect of immigrant share on native wages: Inflow of immigrants by 7 percentage points of employment (U.S ) increases native wages 1/20th of a percentage point.
11 25 years of empirical estimates
12 Explaining the 0 effect People may move out of the local market, diluting the effect. This was the first margin of adjustment considered. Subsequent research analyzed the outflow of native worker (Card and Di Nardo 2000, Card 2005, Peri and Sparber 2009). Did not find significant effects.
13 Omitted Variables? Immigrants may be attracted by success cities inflating the effect. Use push shocks (e.g. Large inflow of Cuban refugees in Miami, Card 1990) Use variation the aggregate flows and previous local communities. (Card 2001). Use aggregate flows and variation in geography (distance from Mexico) (Peri, 2012)
14 Skill heterogeneity is a key issue Need to distinguish effects on more and less educated. There is a large inflow of immigrants in both groups They are very different in their production skills and in their effects.
15 Focus on immigrants as differentiated by skill National Labor markets, for each skill group. Skill group defined by education and age. Workers in it compete for similar jobs. Exploit differences in the inflow of immigrants across skills, to estimate the effect on native wages by skills. (Ottaviano and Peri, 2012)
16 Variation of Immigrants inflows across skill groups
17 Need to define interaction across skills Production uses different skills. College educated may compete with other college educated. But they create opportunities for others (engineer-construction worker; doctor-paramedicnurses) Similarly less educated may compete with other less educated. But they provide services that complement college educated.
18 Production structure; Education and Age skills Experience Schooling College Graduates σ EXP σ LL Some College H kj σ EXP F kj σ IMMI δ γ σ HL Physical Capital High School Graduates Some High School δ=2 σ HH Immigrants
19 Focus on Skills: how many cells do we need? Important to account for interactions/complementarities between cells in production. The biggest effect of relative supply on relative wages seems for college-non college educated Within those broad groups we should look at more relevant production skills, not age and fine education.
20 20 Production structure: Two cells needed to capture key substitutability and complementarity College Equivalents σ HL High School Equivalents Immigrants
21 New Important dimensions Within high school equivalents: Manual-Physical skills versus Communication skills Within College educated STEM-skills (Science, technology, engineering and Math) versus the rest. Math-Analytical/Managerial and Interactive. These skill dimensions determine the occupational distribution of groups.
22 Production structure College and non-college with occupation skills 22 College Equivalents STEM Non- STEM High School Equivalents Manual Non Manual σ HL Immigrants
23 Why does this new structure affect the analysis? 1. Immigrants much more concentrated in those skills. 2. Native workers are mobile across occupations. Important margin of adjustment. 3. STEM may have a productivity effect: they drive science and technology.
24 Manual Analytical-STEM Cognitive-Communication
25 Skill-distribution of less educated Immigrants and natives Define the skill content of 333 occupations based on O*NET database that classify the intensity of use of 56 skills Manual (Limb, Hand, and Finger Dexterity; Body Coordination and Flexibility; Strength) Communication (Oral and written expression and comprehension) Standardize the measure for each to 0-1 (percentile of occupation using that skill in 2000) average and take the ratio. Peri and Sparber (2009)
26 Some Examples of occupational skill content 26 Occupation % of Foreign-Born Workers, 2000 Relative Manual Tasks: EHF/(DCP+EHF) Relative Interactive Tasks: DCP/(DCP+EHF) Manual/ Interactive Agricultural Sector Agricultural Laborer 63% Farm Coordinator 4% Construction Sector Construction Helper 66% Construction Supervisor 8% Postal Services Mail Handling- 48% Machine Operator Mail Clerk/ 7% Deliverer Food Preparation Miscellaneous Food 33% Preparation Supervisor Food 14% Preparation Transportation Services Taxi Driver 40% Supervisor, Motor Vehicle Operators 10%
27 Occupation Communication Intensity Index Manual Intensity Index C/M Percentile Change in Foreign- Born Share of Less- Educated Employment (Percentage Points) Four Occupations with Highest Communication/Manual Values Financial managers Managers of properties and real estate Editors and reporters Operations and systems researchers and analysts Five Occupations with Average Communication/Manual Values Cashiers Cooks, variously defined Hairdressers and cosmetologists Repairers of industrial electrical equipment Kitchen workers Four Occupations with Lowest Communication/Manual Values Vehicle washers and equipment cleaners Furniture and wood finishers Roofers and slaters Drywall installers
28 Low educated immigrants: Pushing less educated natives out of manual jobs
29 Increase in Immigrants, increases intensity of communication tasks in native occupations Effect of an increase in share of immigrants by 1 percentage point of employment Basic Basic Dependent Variables: Ln(Communication/Manual) γ 0.34** (0.05) Ln(communication) γ C 0.31** (0.03) Ln(Manual) γ Μ (0.02) Basic Including Cognitive 0.31** (0.04) 0.31** (0.04) SLS estimation with imputed share of Mexican in the population and distance from Mexico-Aggregate flows as Instruments.
30 Does this margin matter for wage adjustment? Effects of Immigration on wage of high school natives Selected States Percentage Change in Wage of Less-Educated, Assuming Only Competition Percentage Change in Wage of Less- Educated due to Task Complementarities and Specialization Overall Percentage Change of Average Wage Paid to Less- Educated Natives California -4.5% 2.3% -2.2% New Jersey 1.6% 1.3% 2.9% New York -0.7% 1.6% 0.9% Texas -4.8% 1.8% -3.0% United States -1.2% 0.9% -0.3%
31 Native response, looking more in depth Does this occupational upgrading of natives in response to immigrants take place for individuals? How long does it take? Evidence from Denmark (Foged and Peri 2013). Large inflow of non-eu refugees. Flexible labor markets and frequent change in occupation Ability to follow individuals (merged employer employee data)
32 The Interesting Danish case Non-EU immigration started when some countries experienced crisis (Turkey deep economic crisis , Bosnian Crisis , Somalia, Afghanistan Iraq). Overall non-eu flow was relatively large. 3.1% of employment, between 1994 and Danish Labor markets are flexible in the private sector: low costs of hiring and layoffs, large turnover, decentralized (firm-level) bargaining (resemble the US).
33 Denmark: Immigration of non-eu
34 Very unevenly distributed across municipalities, based on existing communities
35 Difference between more and less exposed provinces
36 Manual Intensity and non-eu inflow in Denmark
37 Use a diff in diff approach Select individuals based on their province in 1988 (well before beginning of event) and follow their outcomes. Identify as treated provinces those with high share of non-eu immigrants in 1988 (in average they got many more) Show differential outcome treated-untreated in each year
38 Estimated Specification 1 NAT x i t 3 y imt 14 t M im D year t t 1 t M im D year t t,ind t,reg t,educ t,occ m it M is the dummy for being treated i.e. in a municipality with large density of non-eu immigrants before 1988 Control for individual characteristics, industry-time, regiontime, occupation-time and education-time effects
41 Important Margin of response Native specialization Ethan Lewis 2013: Firms may choose technology more efficient in manual workers if they are abundant (less mechanization, less substitution of capital). Young Native may stay in school longer if many non college educated immigrants are in the area (Jennifer Hunt 2013)
42 What about the effect of STEM workers? Use the H1B visa cap variation over time and the uneven distribution of H-1B across cities, to estimate their effect on productivity. The labor market analysis has not allowed for a productivity effect. Only for relative wage effects. Here we do allow for productive effects. Peri Shih and Sparber (2013)
44 Foreign STEM workers as % of employment Foreigners: Main source of STEM net growth in last 20 years Foreign STEM Total STEM
45 Identify causal effect of STEM on wage and employment Use pre-existing foreign STEM by nationality as of 1970 in US metropolitan areas. H-1B aggregate inflow (controlled by a cap) Combine those to instrument for actual change in foreign STEM. Back up implied productivity effects y ct Native,X Foreign ΔSTEM t c b ct y,x E ct b 3 Controls X ct ct
46 Effects of foreign STEM on wages/employment of natives US metro areas (219 metro areas ) Explanatory Variable: Growth Rate of Foreign STEM Based on imputed H-1B/ inflows (1) Weekly Wage, Native STEM 6.65 (4.53) (2) Weekly Wage, Native College educated 8.03*** (3.02) (3) Weekly Wage, Native Non- College educated 3.78** (1.75) (4) Employment, Native STEM 0.53 (0.56) (5) Employment, Native College educated 2.47 (4.69) (6) Employment, Native Non- College educated (4.19)
47 Impact of more STEM workers Improvements in Science and Technology Increased productivity, and beneficial effects. The effect is stronger for college educated (skill-biased). It qualifies the positive local productivity and growth effects of human capital found by Moretti (2012), Glaeser (2011).
48 Other potential adjustment margins Immigrants supply house-keeping services and increase the work participation of educated women (Cortes 2009) Immigrants increase the variety of skills and creativity and productivity (Alesina et al 2013) Immigrants decrease price of local non-traded services (gardening, house keeping, restaurants) increasing real wages.
49 Who looses? Native non high school educated doing manual jobs. Very few young native workers do these jobs (about 6% of labor force). The same group is also aredisadvantaged by the evolution of technology and trade. Immigrants doing manual jobs are usually paid less than natives. However much more than in countries of origin.
50 In Summary Accounting for adjustment margins and total equilibrium effects, there is little evidence of negative effects. Accounting for productivity effects (high skilled) there is evidence of positive effects. Why? Complementarities of manual and communication skills Adjustment of native specialization. Positive productivity effects of STEM.
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