Youths and labour market in Cameroon in 2010

Transcription

1 REPUBLIQUE DU CAMEROUN Paix- Travail- Patrie REPUBLIC OF CAMEROON Peace- Work- Fatherland INSTITUT NATIONAL DE LA STATISTIQUE NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF STATISTICS Youths and labour market in Cameroon in 2010 June 2011 BP 134 Yaounde. Tél. : (237) Fax : (237) Site Web: 1

2 Youths and labour market in Cameroon in 2010 PRESENTATION NOTE The decision to recruit 25,000 young Cameroonians, taken by the President of the Republic on the 10 th February 2011, will induce a new and positive momentum on the labour market. On the basis of that decision, the Prime Minister, Head of Government, immediately set up the organs in charged of conducting the operations. It is necessary to point out that this important decision is part of the implementation of the Growth and Employment Strategy. The private sector will have to fit in after the Government, since the Public Service cannot alone bring down unemployment, notably youths unemployment. The decision intervenes in a socio-economic context, characterised by a strong employment demand on the labour market, where the modern sector of the economy, according to the findings of the second national Survey on Employment and the Informal Sector (EESI 2), only covers about 10% of employments, the remaining being supplied by the informal sector, generally in precarious conditions. The portion of the population targeted (17-40 years old) by this recruitment constitutes an important demographic weight, which accounts for roughly 37% of the total population. Within this age group, unemployment is a widespread phenomenon, especially in the major metropolises, Yaounde and Douala. Even if the unemployment rate as defined by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) remains apparently low, it is highly overshadowed by global underemployment (a kind of hidden unemployment), which affects more than 70% of persons in activity. The higher education graduates are the most affected by unemployment and underemployment for those who are employed. Undoubtedly, for the evident reason of job security, the majority of unemployed youths, especially those of the secondary or higher education level, prefer paid jobs in the Public Service or the modern private sector. The monthly wage expectations of these young unemployed stands on average at 119,500 CFA F and increases with the level of education to 201,500 CFA F for NHD holders or equivalent diplomas and 400,000 CFA F for doctorate graduates. Such indications could be usefully exploited in the setting up of the budgetary framework related to the recruitment of the 25,000 public agents. 2

3 INTRODUCTION The Head of State has decided, on the 10 th February 2011, on the recruitment of 25,000 persons in the Public Service for the year The hope of thousands of young Cameroonians will thereby become reality. On the occasion of his traditional message to the youth, the Head of State has decided on the recruitment, for the year 2011, of 25,000 public agents aged between 17 and 40 years in the Public Service. This decision, of a major political and socioeconomic range, has been hailed by all the populations. The latter consider it as a prior solution to the thorny issue of unemployment, notably the unemployment of young graduates, among whom some have desperately been seeking a job for more than a decade. The transition of the decision to action has been immediate, as the Government has mobilized itself swiftly. By decree N 040/CAB/PM of the 18 th February 2011, the Prime Minister, Head of Government, has materialized into facts the decision by setting up two organs, namely the coordination and supervision Commission (composed of 15 members and representatives of sectoral ministries) and the technical Committee (comprising 12 members). These organs are each in charge of ensuring the materialization of the recruitment of the 25,000 agents in the Public Service. The Commission, placed under the supervision of the Prime Minister, Head of Government, orients, coordinates and evaluates the operations inherent to the recruitment of 25,000 young graduates in the Public Service. The technical Committee, placed under the authority of the Minister of Public Service, steers the operation of recruitment of these 25,000 public agents. I- STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK OF RECRUITMENTS The recruitment of 25,000 public agents intervenes in the second year of implementation of the Growth and Employment Strategy Paper (GESP), which gives prime importance to employment. Cameroon adopted in 2009 its Growth and Employment Strategy Paper (GESP). This GESP, of which the first phase covers the period till 2020, will have to foster the rise of Cameroon to the rank of a country with an emergent economy by 2035, according to the Vision Cameroon gave itself. The GESP bestows prime importance to employment, which constitutes the second pillar of this strategy. The first pillar pertains to economic growth, which must be beyond 7% per annum over a long period. The GESP acknowledges that if growth, albeit strong and sustainable, does not generate decent jobs, it would not be of satisfactory quality as it might induce wage inequalities and social strife. The labour market, in light of the findings of the second Survey on Employment and the Informal Sector (EESI 2), carried out by the National Institute of Statistics (NIS) in 2010, enables to get an information base for the evaluation of the employment section of the GESP. This operation is part of the National Strategy for the Development of Statistics (NSDS) adopted and being implemented since 2009 by the Government. 3

4 EESI 2, carried out by the NIS in 2010, can be tapped for getting the overall situation of the labour market and obtaining the elements of the profile of the people likely to be candidates for the recruitment. II- SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONTEXT The recruitments will done in a context marked by a labour market mainly characterised by the predominance of precarious employments which are mostly created in the informal sector. The Head of State s decision intervenes in a context marked by an economic growth, which was at 1.9% in 2009, must have stood around 3% in 2010 and is projected to be around 3.8% in Inflation was roughly 1.3% in 2010, lower by 1.7 point in comparison with 2009, thanks to the measures undertaken by the authorities for fighting speculation and guaranteeing a better purveying of markets with staples. Following the definitions in force at the International Labour Organisation (ILO), the labour market situation is as follows for the people aged 10 years or more, considered as population at working age. 2.1 Labour market dynamism In 2010, the rate of activity of people aged 10 years or more decreased by a little more than 2 points as compare to The informal sector is by far the greatest supplier of jobs, however precarious. The rate of activity is one of the indicators that enable to appreciate the labour market dynamics. Its fluctuations give an indication of the market capacity to open or close to job creation. At a level of 69.0% in 2010, the rate of activity decreased by 2.5 points as compare to its 2005 value. Despite this fall, such a level of activity highlights the will of the population to implement every possible strategy so as to get out of poverty and reduce its socio-economic dependence. Considering only the population aged between 15 and 64 years, the rate of activity which is 77.1%, has decreased of more than 2 points as compare to its 2005 level. For the years old, its value was 35.9% in 2010, as against 39.9% in The activity of this age group is especially seen in the context of the economic exploitation of children, a practice condemned by the law. This overall average level of activity veils strong regional disparities. Indeed, the Littoral (excluding Douala), the Centre (excluding Yaounde) and the West regions, with more than 8 active persons out of 10 of working age, stand apart from the other regions. Whereas at the other end, Adamawa region has the lowest rate of activity which is about 6 active persons over 10. The participation in the labour market is clearly higher in the rural area than in the urban one. Indeed, almost three persons of working age out of four in the rural area have an employment or are seeking thereof, against three out of five in the urban area. The informal sector remains by far the greatest supplier of jobs, since 90.5% of workers operate in this sector. 4

5 2.2 The labour market disequilibria: Unemployment and underemployment Unemployment definition according to ILO does not enable to appraise the labour market situation. ILO s definitions, applied as such to the labour market situation of all countries, especially those of the Sub-Saharan Africa, do not allow an optimal and thorough characterization of national situations. In fact, according to the ILO, an active person is considered as unemployed if he has got no job or has not worked for at least an hour over the 7 days preceding the survey and is seeking a job and is ready to work immediately. As of expanded unemployment, it regroups the unemployed as defined by the ILO, to which is added the discouraged unemployed, who, although not having sought a job during the reference period, remain available if they were proposed one. It is for this reason that a relevant analysis of the situation leads us to consider other indicators of possible labour market disequilibria. It is notably the underemployment, which integrates the level of remuneration, the activity income and the number of working hours Unemployment Between 2005 and 2010, the unemployment rate decreased by nearly 1 point, from 4.4% to 3.8%. The number of unemployed (according to the ILO s definition) stabilized around 350,000 people. Unemployment is essentially firstinsertion unemployment, which mostly affects the youths and the higher education graduates. The analysis of the phenomenon with respect to the age of individuals reveals that the average age of the unemployed stands at 27 years. This average age varies very little with respect to the sex. It is roughly 28 years old for men and about 27 years old for women. The unemployment rate increases with the level of education. Indeed, it is under 9% for individuals with at most the secondary education level and 13% for those of the higher education. The average duration of unemployment stands at 38.5 months, and 56.2% of unemployed persons are first-time jobseekers. These unemployed persons are not ready to exercise just any type of employment. They seek an employment corresponding to their qualifications. Actually, if the unemployment rate is so low and undoubtedly close to an incompressible level, it is because it is not a good indicator of the labour market tensions. In the absence of compensations, remaining unemployed is only possible when one belongs to a relatively wealthy family likely to take care of unemployed members. Like in most developing countries, underemployment, which is a sort of hidden unemployment, provides a better measure of the insufficiency/inadequacy of job supply. 5

6 2.2.2 Underemployment Visible underemployment affects 14.8% of the active occupied population. There is visible and invisible underemployment. Visible underemployment concerns the people who, involuntarily, work less than 40 hours a week. It affects 14.8% of the active occupied population. This phenomen is in general observed more in the urban area (16.9%) than in the rural one (13.8%). As regards invisible underemployment, it affects 63.7% of the active occupied persons, women in particular. Invisible underemployment concerns the workers whose remuneration is lower than the guaranteed hourly minimum wage (the equivalent of 28,500 CFA F per month for 40 working hours per week). This form of underemployment affects 63.7% of workers. The active women account for 71.8% in this phenomen, against 56.3% for men. It is in the agricultural informal sector that this situation is more frequent: It concerns 81.4% of the active occupied persons, against 20.0% in the private formal sector and 12.3% in the public sector. Global, underemployment affects 71.9% of the active people, with some found in the public sector. Global underemployment concerns the unemployed active people according to the ILO s definition and the employed active people who are in visible or invisible underemployment. It affects 71.9% of the active population. This rate is 65.1% for men and 79.2% for women. This phenomenon affects 36.7% of the active population in the public sector, 27.5% in the private formal sector, 62.0% in the non-agricultural informal sector and 83.7% in the agricultural informal sector. Graph 1: Rate of global underemployment with respect to sex and the activity sector Between 2005 and 2010, the rate of invisible underemployment has dropped by 5.6 points, from 69.3% to 63.7%. If one considers the global underemployment indicator, which cumulates together the two forms of underemployment, the decrease is also significant. Whereas underemployment affected 75.8% of the active population in 2005, 71.9% 1 of active occupied persons are affected in Visible underemployment has been computed on the basis of 35 hours so as to facilitate the comparison with 2005.

7 III- PROFILE OF THE POTENTIAL CANDIDATES TO THE RECRUITMENT 3.1 Their main characteristics On the basis of demographic projections, the population aged between 17 and 40 years is estimated at 7,257,881 people, that is 37.4% of the whole population in 2010, the latter comprising 50.4% of women and 49.6% of men. With respect to the repartition by region and the residence area, the proportion of the years old is higher in Yaounde (48.3%), Douala (47.6%), the South-West (44.1%) and the South (40.1%). Moreover, these youths represent 45.0% of the population in urban area and 32.7% in the rural area. Furthermore, almost 1 person out of 10 holds a higher education diploma. Apart from CEP/CEPE/FSLC holders, among whom there are more women than men, there are almost as many women as men among the holders of the other diplomas. Graph 2: Repartition of the graduates of the years (%) This population is composed of 29.3% non-graduates, as against 70.7% graduates. With respect to sex, there are 50.4% of women who hold a diploma, as against 49.6% for men. Globally, 4 persons out of 10 are CEPE/CEP or FSLC holders. 3.2 Levels of activity and unemployment The rate of activity of the years old is 76.2% and varies from 60.7% in the Adamawa region to 87.8% in the Centre region (excluding Yaounde). Graph 3: ILO activity rate of the years old with respect to the survey region 7

8 women are more discouraged than men in job-seeking. On the regional plan, besides the great metropolises of Douala (12.1%) and Yaounde (12.4%), young people of the Adamawa and South-West regions are the most concerned by unemployment, with figures greater than the national average. It is worth pointing out that the phenomenon is more intensified in the urban area, where the average rate is 11.4%, than in the rural one (4.3%). The level of education does not seem to constitute a shield against unemployment. The unemployment rate is generally higher for persons with the higher education level. It is 13.7% among BAC/GCEAL/BEP holders, 22.8% among BTS/DUT/DEUG/ NHD holders, 15.7% among Licence/BD holders and 10.4% among Maîtrise/DEA/ Master/MBA holders. Graph 4: ILO unemployment rate, according to the highest diploma (%) 3.3 Profile of the years old in unemployment situation The average age of the graduates of the years who are in the situation of unemployment is 25.9 years. This shows that the youths are the most concerned by unemployment. This statistic raises the problem of the insertion of youths in the labour market after their training. Furthermore, one notices that the unemployed women are a little younger (25.6 years old) than the unemployed men (26.3 years old). The youths who already have some work experience are on average older by three years than those with no experience (first-time job-seekers). The average number of years of studies among the unemployed is 11.2 years: It means that these unemployed have successfully completed the class of 2 nde /Form 5 of secondary education. The urban area unemployed have attended on average one more year of studies than those of the rural area. With respect to sex, it is observed that, among the unemployed, men attend about one more year of studies than women. When first-time job-seekers are compared with those already having some work experience, it emerges no difference regarding the average number of years of studies. 3.4 Profile of the underemployed likely to be candidates It will be possible to find among the candidates for recruitment, persons who are presently in the situation of underemployment in the informal sector. 8 Given the weight of the informal sector in our economy that offers nearly 90% of jobs, it may happen that underemployed graduates apply. Among the years old having a job, 60.7% are in the situation of global underemployment. This level of

9 underemployment is higher for women (70.9%) than for men (52.5%), in the rural area (68.5%) than in the urban one (55.7%). The level of global underemployment among the years old varies with respect to the region of residence. It is lower in the metropolis of Douala (49.1%), in the East (54.0%), the South (55.3%) and the South-West (55.2%) regions. The BTS/DUT/DEUG and Maîtrise/DEA/ MBA graduates are the least concerned by this phenomenon. In fact, 40% of them are in the situation of underemployment. 3.5 Characteristics of the unemployed Within this age group, women are more affected by unemployment than underemployment As in all the country's total population, among the unemployed aged 17-40, there are more women than men (64.9%, against 35.1%). These unemployed are mostly first-time job-seekers. In fact, 59.5% of them are first-time job-seekers against only 40.5% who already have some work experience. Besides, this unemployment is of long duration as 56.4% of these unemployed have been seeking work for more than one year the average duration since unemployment being 34.3 months. This duration is higher in the rural area (46.2 months) than in the urban one (31.2 months). Graph 5: Characteristics of the unemployed IV- PREFERENCES OF THE UNEMPLOYED The majority of the unemployed, for reasons of job security, prefer public sector s or formal private sector s jobs. Among the unemployed, 65.9% prefer being wage earners in the public sector or in the formal private sector, 21.6% lean towards independent work and 12.4% are indifferent. With regard to the level of education, almost 8 unemployed persons out of 10 of the higher education level prefer a salaried job, unlike those of the secondary education level, who are 26.2% to prefer an independent employment. It is not therefore excluded that some people who already work in the informal sector should be candidates to the recruitment. Graph 6: Jobs sought by the graduates of the years (%) 9

10 V- WAGE EXPECTATIONS OF THE YEARS OLD The wage expectations of the candidates to the recruitment stand averagely around 119,412 CFA F per month. This average increases with the diploma to a maximum of almost 400,000 CFA F per month for holders of at least the doctorate degree. The objective of the authorities is to reinforce human resources in administrations at every level and, concomitantly, resolve the thorny problem of unemployment, notably that of the youths. The positive effect expected by administrations is the engagement, the devotion to work and the good productivity of the young people recruited. The motivation linked to the recruitment in the Public Service must be accompanied by the motivation linked to the remuneration. Graph 7: Wage expectations among the educated persons aged between 17 and 40 years with respect to sex (in thousands of CFA F) and 99,484 CFA F for women). These wage expectations vary with the diploma. In fact, they increase from approximately 70,728 CFA F for FSLC (or equivalent diplomas) holders to 201,416 CFA F for NHD (or equivalent diplomas) holders and 400,000 CFA F for Doctorate holders. Furthermore, independently of the diploma, wage expectations of men are systematically higher than those of women. Wage expectations are not rigid, because candidates may accept monthly salaries inferior to 41.0% roughly of their initial expectations. Graph 8: Reservation wage among the educated persons aged between 17 and 40 years with respect to sex (in thousands of CFA F) If one considers only the people of this age group having at least a diploma, the average monthly wage expectations is 119,412 CFA F (156,323 CFA F for men 76.2% of the unemployed are ready to revise their expectations down ward in case of prolonged unemployment. The reservation wage, which is the minimum acceptable wage stands on average at 70,338 CFA F per month, that is 41.1% (more than two-fifth) below wage expectations. 10

11 CONCLUSION The unemployment of youths of the years is a very intensified phenomenon in the urban area. The cities of Douala and Yaounde display the highest levels of youth unemployment and underemployment. The higher education graduates are the most affected. These young people have a higher preference for salaried jobs, and this will increase the pressure. They are not ready to exercise just any type of employment. The Government will have to find the adequate incentives for the modern private sector to fit in. The wage expectations expressed seem to be on average reasonable, except for some graduates, whose expectations cannot be met given the current Public Service s salary scale. Most candidates will be ready to accept the proposed remuneration, provided the other working conditions and the career profile be clearly defined. 11

12 ANNEX Table 1: Rate of underemployment (in %) for the population in general DOUALA YAOUNDE URBAIN RURAL TOTAL Rate of visible underemployment (in %) 13,5 20,0 16,9 13,8 14,8 Men 11,4 15,7 14,6 14,9 14,8 Women 16,4 25,3 19,8 12,7 14,9 Public sector 11,2 27,8 24,4 36,7 28,5 Formal private sector 6,6 8,5 7,4 13,0 8,7 Non-agricultural informal sector 15,3 18,6 17,2 20,8 18,5 Agricultural informal sector 9,0 27,5 13,9 10,9 11,1 Rate of invisible underemployment (in %) 32,0 38,5 42,9 74,4 63,7 Men 24,0 32,1 35,1 68,5 56,3 Women 42,9 46,4 52,9 80,3 71,8 Public sector 8,7 8,7 7,9 21,2 12,3 Formal private sector 11,4 19,5 16,2 32,7 20,0 Non-agricultural informal sector 37,2 48,1 46,9 57,9 51,0 Agricultural informal sector 61,0 35,4 75,6 81,8 81,4 Rate of global underemployment (ILO) (in %) 41,3 53,8 54,3 79,2 71,9 Men 36,7 49,3 49,1 74,8 65,1 Women 59,2 69,0 68,9 84,3 79,2 Public sector 19,9 34,8 31,4 47,1 36,7 Formal private sector 17,7 26,9 22,9 42,3 27,5 Non-agricultural informal sector 47,2 60,9 58,0 69,0 62,0 Agricultural informal sector 65,9 57,9 79,9 84,0 83,7 Table 2: Wage expectations and reservation wages for the educated people of the years Monthly wage expectation (CFA F) Accept to revise their wage expectations down ward unemployment lasts (in %) Reservation wage (CFA F) Expected number of working hours per week Men CEPE/CEP/FSLC BEPC/CAP/GCEOL Probatoire/BP BAC/GCEAL/BEP BTS/DUT/DEUG/NHD Licence/Bachelor Degree Maîtrise/DEA/Masters/MBA or more Women CEPE/CEP/FSLC BEPC/CAP/GCEOL Probatoire/BP BAC/GCEAL/BEP BTS/DUT/DEUG/NHD Licence/Bachelor Degree Maîtrise/DEA/Masters/MBA or more Total CEPE/CEP/FSLC BEPC/CAP/GCEOL Probatoire/BP BAC/GCEAL/BEP BTS/DUT/DEUG/NHD Licence/Bachelor Degree Maîtrise/DEA/Masters/MBA or more