Dynamics of spatial inequality in the Brazilian labor market between 1980 and 2000: a fixed effect approach 1

Transcription

1 Dynamics of spatial inequality in the Brazilian labor market between 1980 and 2000: a fixed effect approach 1 Alexandre Gori-Maia Professor at Institute of Economics University of Campinas (UNICAMP) IE/UNICAMP - Cidade Universitária Zeferino Vaz Caixa Postal 6135 Campinas / SP CEP Telefone: gori@eco.unicamp.br Abstract This paper aims to analyze the dynamics of wage inequality within and between groups of municipalities in Brazil and highlight the important role of regional disparities in the total inequality. Results are based on microdata sample of Demographic Census 1980 and 2000 and consider 3,569 Minimum Comparable Areas (MCA), which allow historical comparison between common areas in the Brazilian territory. In order to analyze the determinants and dynamics of spatial inequality, this paper combines the use of inequality indicators, descriptive spatial analysis and a panel model associating average wages and labor market characteristics. Spatial correlation in errors was considered and represented by a Gaussian model. Overall, results stress the high level of wage inequality between and within MCA. Moreover, independent of local labor market characteristics, unobserved regional structures still play a central role in the extreme Brazilian wage inequality. Regional and individual inequality showed contradictory trend in the period. Differences between richest and poorest people increased substantially in the period, while regional disparities showed semi-stability and even slightly reduction. The panel data analysis also suggests that, independent of the dynamics of the labor market characteristics, average wage reduced substantially in the period, which means that, if labor market had remained constant in this period, Brazil would have experienced an expressive reduction in the average wages. Key words: wage inequality; regional disparities; spatial data analysis; spatial modeling; convergence theory JEL: J31; J24; R12 1 Paper submited at 4th World Conference of the Spatial Econometrics Association", Chicago, June 9-12, Special thanks to CAPES and Prof. Herve Thery, Visitor Professor at Department of Geography - University of São Paulo 1

2 1. Introduction Brazil is widely known for its high levels of poverty and inequality (VELEZ et al., 2004), which is strictly related to its historical process of socioeconomic development (FURTADO, 1986). Since colonization, Brazil witnessed a huge accumulation of lands by a restricted number of owners and even the socioeconomic development experienced in last decades has been unable to attenuate such extreme disparities (HOFFMANN, 2001). Nowadays, huge inequality can be witnessed in innumerous socioeconomic dimensions, such as those related to income, health, infra-structure or labor market characteristics (GORI-MAIA, 2009). Distribution of wages in the labor market plays a central role in this dynamic because, besides representing the major share of total income in Brazil, it also determines future income and quality of life for most individuals and, thus, influences the prospects of socioeconomic development. Among the determinants of the high wage inequality in Brazil, labor market characteristics can be highlighted, such as labor force participation, employment conditions and economic structure. For instance, spatial distribution of economic activities influences productivity and the spatial distribution of wage, as well as labor force qualification and workers experience. Similarly, higher unemployment rates in more accumulated populations tend to debilitate workers bargaining power and compel them to accept lower wages, in addition to different levels of segregation and discrimination they are subjected to in the labor market. Immeasurable regional characteristics are also responsible for huge socioeconomic disparities in the territory and determine different patterns of spatial distribution of employment and wages. Besides the influence of historical, cultural and environmental events on socioeconomic development level, different levels of regional development determine distinct socioeconomic structures, playing an important role in the geographic distribution of people and income. In order to understand the dynamics of wage inequality in the Brazilian territory and how regional characteristics have affected it, this paper aims to analyze the wage distribution between and within groups of municipalities in Brazil. To achieve this, results are based on inequality measures and spatial modeling using panel data. Municipalities are the lowest autonomous territorial units inside the political-administrative division in Brazil. Understanding their relation within the territory is essential to planning and making decisions concerning implementation of economic activities, public and private consumption, as well as providing ways to understand emerging social relations and spatial patterns of inequality. The results of this paper are presented in two main parts, besides this introduction and final conclusions: i) patterns and dynamics of the spatial inequality: measures for the spatial distribution of inequality between and within municipalities in Brazil; ii) determinants of the spatial inequality: spatial data modeling to analyze the determinants of wage inequality between municipalities. Overall, results emphasize the high level of inequality between and within municipalities and the important role of regional disparities, independent of labor market structures, on the extreme wage inequality in Brazil. The territorial dynamics stills highlight the contradictory trends between income and wage inequality between and within municipalities. 2. Material Analyses were based on microdata sample of Demographic Census 1980 and Demographic Census is the main household survey sponsored by the IBGE (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística) and it is conducted decennially over most Brazilian territory, except 2

3 for those rare and inaccessible indigenous tribes. Because new municipalities were created between 1980 and 2000, spatial analyses were based on Minimum Comparable Areas (MCA) 2. Sponsored by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and the Institute of Applied Economic Research (IPEA), MCA represent 3,569 groups of municipalities which allow historical comparison between common areas in the Brazilian territory (RANGEL et al., 2007). Employed were considered those persons 10 years old or more who, during the reference period, performed any work for wage, salary or profit in cash, or those persons who, having already worked in their present job or with an enterprise, were temporally absent at work during the reference period for any specific reason. Although unpaid workers could play an important role in labor force composition, especially on developing countries (HUSSMANNS, 2009), they have not been considered in order to avoid overestimation of wage inequality due to methodological concerns. To simplify denominations, wages, salaries and profits were referred, in this paper, basically as wages, representing monthly payments for labor or rendered services. All values were deflated to July 2004 using INPC (Brazilian National Consumer Price Index) from IBGE and converted to dollars considering the Purchasing Parity Power (PPP) proposed by United Nation Statistical Division Patterns and dynamics of the spatial inequality Brazilian economic literature provides several empirical analyses to understand the trends of its regional inequality. FERREIRA & DINIZ (1995), for instance, suggest a continuous and absolute convergence of per capita income for Brazilian states between 1970 and AZZONI et al. (2000) also suggest a conditional convergence of state per capita incomes between 1981 and 1996, this means, controlling for geographical characteristics, human capital and local infra-structure. For its turn, RANGEL et al. (2007) analyze the relation between economic growth, inequality and socioeconomic indicators and also suggest a convergence trend in the long run, highlighting that higher and sustainable economic growth could be achieved improving human capital and reducing inequalities. On the other hand, MAGALHAES & MIRANDA (2008), analyzed differences between municipal per capita income during ages 1970 and 2000 and suggested a process of regional divergence, although identifying some groups of regional convergence, this means, regions with reduction on inequality between municipalities. Trying to understand more precisely what led regional inequality in last decades, MAIA & THERY (2009) exhibited how recent reduction of the income inequality between municipalities in Brazil was straightly related to wider and higher pensions covers. Thus, reduction of municipal inequalities was not specifically related to a trend of economic growth, but especially due to effects of public policies implemented on the retirement and pension system during ages 90. In order to improve previous analysis, this paper wants to highlight what happened specifically with the dynamics of spatial inequality in the labor market, where wages are more straightly related to the dynamics of economic development. 2 New technologies and the process of municipalization implemented on Constitution of 1988 give rise to expressive changes on the dynamics of the political-admninistrative division of Brazilian territory (IBGE, 2008). There were 3,991 municipalities in 1980 and and5.507 in Conversion based on1.2 reais (R$) for each dollar (US$) in July 2004 (Data source: UNSD. Available at < Accessed April 2009). 3

4 First of all, the level of spatial inequality between and within MCA was analyzed by Theil s T index. Moreover, its decomposition property allowed verifying the share of total inequality due to differences between and within groups of individuals (HOFFMANN, 1998). Because municipalities can also be arranged in states and administrative regions, Theil s T also allowed evaluating the contribution of each of these areas to the total inequality in the labor market. According to Theil s T, both individual wage and per capita income inequalities exhibit extreme values in Brazil (Table 1). Per capita income inequality is slightly superior than wage inequality, probably due to the facts that: i) socio-demographic tends to increase inequality because low-wage workers usually live in families with more dependents; ii) asymmetric distribution of income from pensions (richest persons attaining highest shares of pensions) tends to increase per capita income inequality in Brazil, particularly in metropolitan regions (HOFFMANN, 2003). The decomposition of Theil s T allowed estimating the contribution of regional differences to the total inequality in Brazil. Differences among MCA represented 12% of total wage inequality and 18% of income inequality in Although these values seem inexpressive contributions, they represent average wage differences among 3,569 MCA over almost 170 million Brazilian and, thus, can be considered a relevant contribution of regional differences to the total inequality in Brazil. Differences between Federal Units and Regions also contribute significantly to total inequality, although in lower level due to reduced number of groups (5% and 4%, respectively, in 2000). The evolution of Theil s T between 1980 and 2000 suggest that Brazilian dynamics of economic development did not reach success reducing individual inequalities and differences between richest and poorest persons increased substantially. On the other hand, regional disparities followed a particular trend, showing semi-stability or even reducing in the same period. For instance, Theil s T for wage inequality between MCA remained close to 0.10, while Theil s T for income inequality between MCA reduced 17%. Table 1 Theil s T decomposition according to geographical areas Brazil Region Wage Income Wage Income Theil % Theil % Theil % Theil % MCA (3,569) Federal Units (27) Regions (5) Total Data source: Demographic Census, microdata,ibge In order to understand more precisely such contradictory trends, next analysis highlight the dynamics of wage differences in the Brazilian territory. Although per capita income used to be a more accurate measure of individual purchase power, wages play a central role in the Brazilian inequality. Besides representing the most expressive share of the total income in Brazil, especially in richest regions (Table 2), current wages also determine expected income and quality of live for most individuals and allow a stricter analysis of the personal differences, such as those related to segregation, discrimination and human capital. 4

5 First of all, it must be stressed the high level of wage and employment inequality between MCA, which means that just few municipalities accumulate most significant share of the employed population and total wage in the labor market. For instance, the 10% richest Brazilian municipalities, arranged according to average wage, shared 48% of the employed population and 66% of the total wage in On the other hand, the share of the poorest MCA was almost inexpressive: the 40% poorest municipalities shared 14% of the employed population and just 4% of the total wage. The territorial dynamics contributed to increase the accumulation of the employed persons and wages in the richest MCA. Between 1980 and 2000, rose 2 percent points the share of the employed population and 3 percent point the share of the total wage in the 10% richest MCA. Overall, average wages rose slightly in the top poorest and richest municipalities and declined in the remaining intermediary municipalities, which could be responsible for the tenuous increase in the whole wage inequality. Wages play also a more relevant role on the total income of intermediary and richest municipalities, which can be attributed to higher wages and activity rates in more developed areas. Overall, in the 10% richest MCA average wage is 5 times higher than that of the 10% poorest MCA and the total wages represent 78% of the total income, in contrast with just 65% of the 10% poorest municipalities. On the other hand, government benefits, such as pensions and financial aids, tend to play a more relevant role in the poorest municipalities (MAIA & THÉRY, 2009). Table 2 Population, wage and income distribution according to tenth of municipalities per capita income Brazil 2000 Tenth % Pop % Wage % Wage / Income Avg Wage (US$) % Pop % Wage % Wage / Income Avg Wage (US$) , ,084.7 Total Data source: Demographic Census, microdata, IBGE Values of July 2004 (US$ PPP) Besides high wage and employment disparities between richest and poorest MCA, there are also wide patterns of spatial inequalities (Figure 1). Those few MCA accumulating the most significant share of wage are located in the state of São Paulo, South region and east side of Shoutheast region, in addition to narrow areas in the coast border of the Northeast region. Only the MCA of São Paulo, the biggest in Brazil, held 13% of the total Brazilian wage in On 5

6 the other hand, large areas in the central-north regions are expressive in territory but practically inexpressive in reference to the share of the total wage. In addition to lower productivity, labor markets in underdeveloped regions are usually disorganized and of limited scope, giving rise to lower wages and employment opportunities. Low-wage and unpaid jobs, such those with persons working for family gain or self-subsistence, prevail in less developed areas, especially in the rural areas of Northeast region (GORI-MAIA, 2009). Moreover, migratory movements, especially of young and adult workers, tend to reduce labor force supply in less developed and raise it in more developed areas. In Brazil, such movement was observed in the last decades from rural to urban areas; from less developed areas in the Northeast region to more developed areas in the Southeast; and, recently, from the South and Northeast regions to the Central-West and North regions, following the new agricultural borders of development (THÉRY & MELLO, 2006). Between 1980 and 2000, the share of the total wage accumulated by the two more populous and richest cities, São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, felled 2 points percent. On the other hand, accumulation of wage rose more significantly in other important cities, such as Brasília, Curitiba and Goiânia. Overall, patterns of extreme spatial inequality still remain, with almost 30% of the total wage accumulated by the seven richest Brazilian MCA. Figure 1 Spatial distribution of total wages Brazil 1980 and 2000 Cartographic source: Articque Data source: Demographic Census, microdata,ibge Values of July 2004 (US$ PPP) The spatial distribution of MCA average wage reinforces previous analysis and allows indentifying patterns and dynamics of labor remunerability (Figure 2). Six class intervals were defined using amplitudes equivalent to US$ 150 PPP, which approximately discriminate, in the whole period, the 25% lowest average wages, next 25%, 20%, 15%, 10% and 5% highest average wages. Overall, results exhibit a continuous extension of richest MCA spreading in the states of São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, south of Minas Gerais, South region and in the new border of agricultural development in the Central-West region. Besides a higher proportion of relatively 6

7 richest MCA in 1980, there are no evident changes in the patterns of spatial inequality between 1980 and The level of spatial dependence for the MCA average wage was examined by Moran s I autocorrelation coefficient (BAILEY & GATRELL, 1995). High values for the Moran s coefficient suggest a strong and positive relation among neighbors, which means that MCA with higher average wages tend to be close to each other. Persistence of high values for the Moran s coefficient even for different lags, namely for differences between MCA farther from each other, also suggests the heterogeneity of spatial distribution and the prevalence of strong spatial patterns in the territory. This result can be testified visualizing the huge accumulation of the poorest municipalities in the large areas of the Northeast region and the richest ones in the South, Southeast and some parts of the Central-West region 4. Figure 2 Spatial distribution of municipalities according to average wages Brazil 1980 and 2000 Cartographic source: Philcarto Data source: Demographic Census, microdata,ibge Values in July 2004 (US$ PPP) 4. Determinants of the spatial inequality 4.1. Methods The panel data model In order to analyze the determinants of wage inequalities in the territory, a panel data model was adjusted for the natural logarithm of the average wage as a function of covariates related to the main labor market conditions (such as participation, unemployment and informality rate), labor force socioeconomic composition (such as qualification, experience, gender and race) 4 Nevertheless, spatial distribution in the central-north areas must be analyzed carefully, because they are expressive on territory but inexpressive on wage and employment accumulation. 7

8 and the sectoral structure of municipal labor markets. Fixed effects were used to control unobserved characteristics related to individuals (MCA) and time (1980 and 2000). Such model can be expressed as: ln( k Yit ) 0 j 1 X m D e (1) j j it i t it Where ln(y) represents the natural logarithm for MCA average wage and X j is the j-th covariate. Fixed effects m i control MCA differences and fixed effects D t identify income differences across census. The unpredicted random error is represented by e. Coefficients j represent impacts on the natural logarithm related to a unitary variation on the explanatory variable X j. In other words, given a unitary variation on X j, percentage variation on Y will be given by ( j )100%. For its time, because m i and D t are dummy variables, the variation on the average wage between periods, independent of labor market characteristics, will be given by ( e 1)100%, where is a generic representation for m i and D i (HALVORSEN & PALMQUIST, 1980). Overall, fourteen covariates were considered in this analysis: Labor market condition i) Participation ratio (0..1): the ratio of labor force (employed and unemployed population) to working age population (10 years old or more); ii) Unemployment ratio (0..1): the ratio of unemployed population to labor force; iii) Informality ratio (0..1): the share of employed population covered by social security; iv) Underemployment ratio (0..1): the share of employed population working less than 35 hours a week; Labor force socioeconomic composition v) Participation of young people (0..1): the share of young persons (less than 25 years old) in the employed population vi) Elder participation (0..1): the share of elderly persons (60 years old or more) in the employed population; vii) Secondary participation (0..1): the share of those that completed secondary school in the employed population; viii) Women participation (0..1): the share of women in the employed participation; ix) White participation (0..1): the share of white or yellow color persons in the employed population; Sectoral structure According to the main economic activities suggested by United Nation Statistics (UNSD, 2009), the share of six economic sectors was considered (agriculture sector was used as reference of analysis): x) mining, manufacturing and utilities - electricity, gas and water supply (0..1); xi) Construction (0..1); xii) wholesale, retail trade, restaurants and hotels (0..1); xiii) transport, storage and communication (0..1); 8

9 xiv) other activities - financial intermediation, real state, renting, business activities, public administration, defense, education, health, social work, social services, personal activities, private households and others services (0..1). Given that all covariates are ratios varying between 0 and 1, regression coefficients will represent marginal elasticity on the MCA average wage given a percentage variation in the desirable explanatory index. Such coefficients were estimated by Maximum Likelihood methodology using MIXED Procedure of SAS System (LITTELL et al., 1996). Spatial autocorrelation The first step comprised estimating the coefficients for equation (1) using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS). Overall, covariates explained significantly the variation of the natural logarithm of the MCA average wages, with a coefficient of determination equivalent to However, because observations closers together tend to be more alike than observations farther apart, spatial correlation in errors must be considered in order to obtain more efficient estimates for coefficients and unbiased estimator for their variances (BAILEY & GATRELL, 1995). In general, spatial correlation can be defined as: Var 2 ( e it ) i and Cov( e it, e jt ) ij (2) Where ij can be modeled as a function of the distance between locations i and j. In other words, suppose d ij as the distance between i-th and j-th MCA, covariance between then would be given by: Cov( e it, e jt 2 ) [ f ( d )] (3) ij Among several models to adjust f(d ij ) (LITTELL et al., 1996; BAILEY & GATRELL, 1995), Gaussian model fitted better in the spatial correlation observed in the residuals of equation (1). Gaussian is a isotropic model which supposes that f(d ij ) does not depend on the direction and is the same for all pairs of equally distant locations. It is given by: d 2 ij / 2 f ( d ij ) e (4) Where is the range, defined as the maximum distance at which observations are spatially correlated. Observed and predicted values by a Gaussian model for the spatial dependence among residuals can be visualized in the semivariogram, a standard statistical measure for spatial variability as a function of the distance between observations (Figure 3) 5. Variability is lower for observations closer together and increases over distance, reaching a sill when spatial correlation has no effect anymore (Figure 3). 5 A variaogram is defined as one-half the variance of the difference between two observation a given distance apart (LITTELL et al.,1996). 9

10 Figure 3 Observed and adjusted semivariance for the OLS residuals Data source: Demographic Census, microdata,ibge Distances in km 4.2. Results and discussion Determinants of the average wages According to the parameters estimated in the semivariogram analysis, a Gaussian model was considered to adjust coefficients for the panel data model (Equation 1). Overall, likelihood ratio exhibited the relevant contribution of the labor market factors to explain wage disparities. Most variables were significant at 0.1%, which means that they have relevant marginal contributions to explain wage variability (Table 3). Table 3 Maximum likelihood estimation for natural logarithm of MCA average wage Brazil 1980 and 2000 Variable S t p Intercept 6,742 0,142 47,60 *** Labor Market Conditions Participation rate -0,201 0,068-2,95 ** Unemployment rate -0,096 0,074-1,29 0,197 Informality rate -0,155 0,033-4,63 *** Underemployment rate -0,152 0,073-2,09 ** Labor Force Composition Young participation -0,062 0,088-0,70 0,481 Elderly participation -0,719 0,218-3,30 *** Secondary degree participation 1,369 0,102 13,49 *** 10

11 Woman participation -0,391 0,084-4,65 *** White participation -0,001 0,032-0,02 0,981 Sectoral Structure Mining, manufacturing and utilities 0,095 0,061 1,55 0,121 Construction 0,475 0,104 4,57 *** Wholesale, retail trade, restaurants and hotels 0,489 0,105 4,65 *** Transport, storage and communication 0,670 0,222 3,01 ** Other activities 0,020 0,075 0,26 0,792 Fixed Effect Age ,227 0,023 9,85 *** Data source: Demographic Census, microdata,ibge *** Significance at 0.1%; ** Significance at 5%; * Significance at 10% Participation ratio reflects both employment and unemployment situations and it is negatively related to MCA average wages 6. This result suggests that, in this period, the higher the share of labor force in the working age population the lower the wages. In order to understand such a relation, two important considerations must be highlighted. First of all, between 1980 and 2000, Brazil witnessed a huge increase in the working age population and women s participation in its labor market, thus increasing the supply of the labor force and compressing average wages (LEONE et al., 2010). Second, debit crisis at the beginning of the 80s introduced a long period of low and unsteady economic growth in Brazil, which resulted in severe restrictions to the labor market development. Between 1981 and 2000, the cumulative economic growth in Brazil was 21s percent point lower than the growth of its Economically Active Population 7. Unemployment showed an insignificant effect on the average wage, probably due to its high correlation with the participation ratio. On the other hand, informality and underemployment ratios, both proxies for inappropriate labor market conditions, exhibited negative relations with MCA average wage. For example, the higher the participation of the employed population with insufficient hours of work the lower the average wage. Although there is no accurate information concerning availability and willingness to work additional hours for these workers, results may reflect an underutilization of their productive capacity, including underutilization that arises from a deficient economic system, with negative impacts on wages in the labor market. In Brazil, underemployment has a particular relevance in agricultural and underdeveloped regions, where most workers cannot afford to be unemployed even for a short period of time and, in order to survive, must engage in some economic activity in spite of its inadequate conditions, limited hours and low remuneration. Labor force characteristics such as age structure, educational attainment and female participations also play important roles determining average wages in Brazil. Age structure is a proxy for the labor force experience and their coefficients suggest that wages are lower in 6 The employment ratio (ER) is given by the division between the employed (EP) and the working age population (WAP). By definition, it is the same that the product between the complement of unemployment ratio (UR) and the participation ratio (PR): ER=EP/WAP=(1-UR) PR. 7 Source: IPEADATA. Available at Access in June

12 municipalities with a higher participation of older workers (60 years old or more). The elderly usually have lower availability to work and lower productivity than those younger than them. They also have more difficulty in finding a new job and usually accept lower wages to avoid unemployment. In turn, there was no evidence of a relation between the variation in young worker participation and average wages, probably due to its high correlation with elderly participation. Besides huge differences among schooling levels in Brazil, educational attainment is responsible for expressive differences among MCA average wages. Variation in the share of those having completed secondary school represented the most expressive impact on average wages in the period. A 1.36% increase in average wages for each percent point variation in this feature. Coefficient related to women s participation reflects any segregation, discrimination or socio-cultural differences in the labor market and it is negatively related to average wages. Women tend to work in occupations with lower socio-occupational status and, even in similar occupational positions, these groups can still be subjected to discrimination. Women still present lower average working hours than men, due to the social containment that they are subjected to, and, thus, tend to present lower productivity and average wages than men. Although some studies point to similar social segregation and discrimination in relation to non-white workers, there is no evidence that variation in the share of this group can lead to lower MCA average wages in Brazil. Sectoral structure reveals the level of regional economic development and has a direct impact on average wages. More developed regions tend to present a higher share of employees in the tertiary sector, especially in those activities related to transport, storage and communication. On the other hand, the higher the participation of agricultural, mining, manufacturing and construction activities, the lower the MCA average wage tends to be. Finally, the time fixed effect coefficient suggests that, independent of labor market characteristics, the MCA average wage was 23% higher in 1980 in comparison to In other words, the semi-stability of the unconditional average wage witnessed in Table 2 would be specially due to the improvement of labor market characteristics in Brazil, such as finishing secondary school and the reduction of low-productivity activities. If the labor market characteristics had remained constant between 1980 and 2000, MCA would have experienced an expressive reduction in the average wages. Impacts of labor market characteristics on MCA average wages In order to better understand how the dynamics of labor market characteristics affected average wages, Table 4 presents the average values for each labor market characteristic in and 2000 and the respective impacts of their variation on average wages. Suppose that X j is 00 the average value for the j-th labor market characteristic in 1980 and X j is the average in The estimated impact of the variation of this labor market characteristic on MCA average wage will be given for: r j ˆ j j j ( X X ) (4) Overall, dynamics of labor market conditions (participation, unemployment, informality and underemployment) caused negative impacts on MCA average wage. Participation ratio 12

13 increased 6 percent points between 1980 and 2000, reducing 1% the MCA average wages. Underemployment and unemployment also increased substantially (6 and 14 percent point, respectively) and were responsible for an overall reduction of 2% on MCA average wages. On the other hand, positive changes in the labor force composition and in the sectoral structure exceeded negative ones and contributed to improve MCA average wages. The improvement of educational level caused the most expressive impact on average wages. The share of the employed population which completed secondary school increased 17 percent points between 1980 and 2000, leading to an expressive increasement of 23% in MCA average wages. For its turn, women participation increased 11 percent point and impacted negatively on average wages (4%). On sectoral structure, low wage activities (agricultural, mining, manufacturing and construction) were replaced by services ones, which have, historically, higher wages and contributed to improve average wages. The most expressive increase occurred with wholesale, retail trade, restaurants and hotels occupations. There was a 6 percent point variation in the share of the employed population, which lead to a positive variation of 3% on average wages. Table 4 Average values for explanatory variables Brazil 1980, 1991 and Variable X j X r j j Labor Market Conditions Participation ratio 0,492 0,549-0,011 Unemployment ratio 0,022 0,157-0,013 Informality ratio 0,441 0,424 0,003 Underemployment ratio 0,061 0,122-0,009 Labor Force Composition Young participation 0,360 0,251 0,007 Elderly participation 0,042 0,042 0,000 Secondary degree participation 0,128 0,293 0,227 Woman participation 0,272 0,379-0,042 White participation 0,564 0,569 0,000 Sectoral Structure Agricultural 0,300 0,157 - Mining, manufacturing and utilities 0,180 0,147-0,003 Construction 0,075 0,072-0,001 Wholesale, retail trade, restaurants and hotels 0,138 0,202 0,031 Transport, storage and communication 0,043 0,052 0,007 Other activities 0,265 0,370 0,002 Spatial distribution of fixed effects Data source: Demographic Census, microdata,ibge Although labor market characteristics, represented by explanatory variables, explained the most expressive marginal contribution for the coefficient of determination (4/5 of the total R 2 ), fixed effects for differences among MCA emphasize the importance of unpredictable 13

14 regional characteristics to explain wage inequalities (1/5 of total R 2 ). Because Brasilia was used as reference in this analysis, estimated fixed effects coefficients express the percent variation on average wage between each MCA and this municipality. Figure 4 exhibits their spatial distribution and allow identifying clusters of municipalities according to their pattern of regional inequality. Most coefficients are negatives because Brasilia has one of the highest average wages in Brazil. Both spatial distribution and expressive Moran s coefficients exhibit high dependency of the spatial patterns and suggest that, besides explanatory factors, regions still play a central role determining wages in the labor market. Because fixed effects represent unobservable characteristics, these results may suggest that unobserved regional labor characteristics still make difference in determining average wages. It could be due to, for instance, human capital, historical and cultural differences. Overall, highest negative fixed effects tend to occur in the Northeast region, suggesting that, in this region, average wages are still lower than predicted by its low socioeconomic conditions. Conclusions Figure 4 Spatial distribution of fixed effects Brazil 1980 and 2000 Cartographic source: Philcarto Data source: Demographic Census, microdata,ibge In balance, this paper aimed to analyze the dynamics of spatial distribution of wage in the Brazilian labor market. Overall, results stressed the high level of wage inequality between and within municipalities and that, independent of local labor market structures, unobserved regional characteristics still play a central role in the extreme wage inequality in Brazil. Wages and employment are extremely accumulated in few municipalities and their spatial distributions show evident patterns in the Brazilian territory. High autocorrelation indexes, either for one or more lags, also suggest an apparent heterogeneity of the wage distribution between municipalities, suggesting the prevalence of high patterns of inequality in the territory. Although the two biggest municipalities lost participation in the share of total wage and employment, the dynamics of spatial distribution showed no expressive changes in the 14

15 patterns of spatial inequality between 1980 and This stationary trend for the differences between MCA average wages is contradictory with the reduction observed for the differences between MCA per capita income and the increase of differences for individual wages within MCA. In order to understand how labor market structure could explain inequality between regions, a fixed effect model was adjusted for the MCA average wage as a function of covariates related to labor market characteristics. Although such explanatory factors show significant and consistent relations, unobserved characteristics remained as an important factor determining average wages in the territory. The spatial distribution of residuals and their autocorrelation indexes showed pertinent patterns of spatial dependency, corroborating the hypothesis that, independent of labor market structures, territory still plays a central role in the wage inequality. Finally, time fixed effect coefficients suggests that, independent of the dynamics of labor market structures, average wage reduced expressively between 1980 and This means that improvement of labor market characteristics in Brazil, such as higher participation ratio, secondary school and reduction of low-productivity activities, played a central role in the spatial dynamics of the regional inequality. If labor market had remained constant, Brazil would have experienced expressive reduction of regional wages. References AZZONI, C. R.; MENEZES FILHO, N.; MENEZES, T. A.; SIVEIRA NETO, R. Geography and Income convergence among Brazilian states. Research Network Working Papers, R-395, 30 p., BAILEY, T. C.; GATRELL, A. C. Interactive spatial data analysis. Longman Scientific & Technical, Essex, England, FERREIRA, A. H. B.; DINIZ, C. C. Convergência entre as rendas per capita estaduais no Brasil. Revista de Economia Política. v. 15, n. 4, p , FURTADO, C. Formação econômica do Brasil, 21ª ed. São Paulo: Editora Nacional, GORI-MAIA, A. Estrutura de classes e desigualdades. Debates contemporâneos, São Paulo: LTr, GORI-MAIA, A.; GARCIA, V. G. Desigualdade e discriminação segundo gênero e raça no mercado de trabalho brasileiro: 1982 e Revista da ABET, v. 6, p , GORI-MAIA, A.; THERY, H. Dinâmica da distribuição espacial de renda no Brasil: 1980 a Campinas: Instituto de Economia, São Paulo: Departamento de Geografia, 2009 (no prelo). HALVORSEN, R.; PALMQUIST, R. The interpretation of dummy variables in semilogarithmic equations. The American Economic Review, v. 70, n. 3, p , HOFFMANN, R. Inequality in Brazil: The Contribution of pensions - out/dez/2003. Revista Brasileira de Economia, Rio de Janeiro, v. 55, p ,

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