Rachel Suissa University of Haifa

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1 The EU as global actor based on the wider Petersberg Tasks: Building on EU and Member States Instruments and Capability Processes Rachel Suissa University of Haifa

2 WP6Scenario Research Managing Trans-boundary Crises: What Role for the European Union? Stephenson& Rhinard, International Studies Review (2008) Four different ideal-typical futures to which the EU might aspire and consider the likelihood of each option by assessing what capacities the EU currently has in place:

3 Ideal-Typical Future The Supranational Future EU Rational of Action The EU could do more as a transboundary crisis manager and calls attention to the demonstrated benefits of EU institutions in solving common problems Possible Implications of Scenario Centralization of EU crisis management responsibilities in a semiautonomous and flexible agency The Subsidiarity Future (builds on the conventional wisdom in disaster and crisis management studies) The consequences of adversity should be addressed at the local level where the consequences are most acutely felt. This alternative does not deny a role for the EU. It prescribes a facilitating role for the EU. The EU enhances the transboundary management capacity of member states and enables cooperation between national organizations. The subsidiarity scenario prescribes a complementary but distinct division of labor between national and supranational crisis management.

4 Ideal-Typical Future EU Rational of Action Implications of Scenario Alternative Organization Future Transboundary threats may require transnational coping capacity, but the EU is not where that capacity should be developed. Crisis and security responsibilities are better placed in other international organizations (IOs) better suited for such a role. NATO might be a likely candidate for this role. Alternatively, a new international organization could be formed to address the new crisis management challenges without denying any involvement of the EU. An active role in enhancing capacity in an IO and working with that IO, but in this scenario the EU refrains from developing its own coping capacity; Appeals to those who argue that EU and NATO responsibilities overlap in this area. NATO possesses a civil contingencies unit that could help coordinate civilian responses to transboundary crises in the Union. The current membership of NATO, however, differs in fundamental ways with EU membership, undermining the alliance s capacity and legitimacy to operate on EU territory. Does not rule out cooperation between NATO and EU, especially when it comes to certain types of threat, for example, attacks with nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons

5 Ideal-Typical Future EU Rational of Action Possible Implications of Scenario EU-Skepticism Future A traditional bottom-up perspective on crisis and disaster management with a skeptical view on further expansion of EU tasks and authority. Denies the necessity of a centralized,supra-national response structure and points to the unintended consequences to accompany such a development. It views collaboration on crisis management matters between nation-states as important but not necessarily a job for European Union institutions

6 Criticism/Scenarios Managing Transboundary Crises: What Role for the European Union? Lack of specific scenarios does not allow a true functional understanding of these roles Lack of additional research in three problems that undermine European capacity to cope with tran-sboundary threats: Solving the Coordination Riddle. why some organizations or networks manage to function in a coherent, coordinated manner in times of adversity, whereas so many others fall apart? Furthering Effectiveness. whether EU crisis policies and structures will work effectively in the heat of the moment. Enhancing Legitimacy. The democratic legitimacy of the EU s identity as a security provider and crisis manager

7 The Turmoil in the Arab world A sample of similar dilemmas for different Petersberg tasks scenarios Perceptions of the EU as a global actor: How is EU perceived as a global actor before, during and after the Arab turmoil inside and outside Europe? National traditional diplomacy in the Arab world: How will the arab turmoil change the traditional diplomacy at the member state level, and will it facilitate or limit Petersberg tasks? Economic challenges: What new challenges pose the Arab turmoil on Petersberg capacities and capabilities, and what are the implications of the Union's responsibilities towards economies of countries such as Ireland, Portugal, Greece on the implementation Petersberg tasks? The question of proportionality between EU NATO as global actors: the increase in total capabilities as a key component in preparedness for simultaneous threats. In how many places Petersberg tasks could be applied simultaneously? The EU Wider Petersberg's tasks needs greater demands in Maneuverability and Flexibility.

8 RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR EU IN THE NEW ARAB WORLD - Both Arab democracy and islamist radicalisation risk to increase Islamist radicalisation in EUROPE Political Opposition-Shift : Democracy in state origin might enhance an Islamist opposition in Europe - Shifts in Middle East diplomacy perceptions (Arab countries and Israel) Unique Opportunity To EU Diplomatic Role (Weakening of the U.S. in Arab countries; Europe as the central diplomatic working zone for the Palestinian Authority drags Israel to Counter-diplomacy in the same zone. Thus, empowering EU diplomatic role in the middle east) - Turning points, such as shifts in strategic alliances in Israel as well as in other countries in the region facilitate a more active role for the EU - EU Should consider Training of diplomacy in the service of immigrants from Arab countries - Cultural Diplomacy' cultural cooperation especially with Arab countries as a way to advance Europe's interests and values in the world including democracy, human rights, conflict prevention and peace building Ending with an extreme scenario: Is Europe ready for a similar turmoil possibly conducted by a transboundary civic society?

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