Macro Strategy 4 September 2016

Transcription

1 Middle East & North Africa North America East Asia & Pacific Euro Area OECD Members UAE Saudi Arabia Qatar Oman Bahrain Kuwait GCC: Labor Markets Labor markets reform is emerging as a crucial element of the wider GCC economic reform process. The structure of labor markets in the region has been one where foreign labor dominates employment in the private sector, and GCC nationals dominate employment in the public sector. That model worked very well when high oil prices were driving an infrastructure investment boom. Furthermore the public sector wage bill could absorb high paying jobs for nationals, while foreign labor was able to remit money benefiting their respective economies. However a weak oil market since the end of 2014 is now placing significant pressure on the public sector wage bill, and productivity has been on a declining trajectory for years, largely as a result of inflow of unskilled workers. With diversification the overriding theme in the region, rebalancing the labor markets will be one of the key s to its success. Macro Strategy 4 September 2016 Demographics are a significant challenge, especially given the rapid expansion of the working age population. With the public sector absorbing almost 90% of GCC national employment, the challenge of policy makers will be gradually shifting nationals from public sector employment into private sector employment. This entails creating high value, high productivity jobs in more sustainable and diversified industries. Given this is a very significant structural adjustment, understanding what policy requirements are needed and more importantly implementing and following them through will be key. For the right labor market policy adjustments to take place we have identified three key reforms needed to take place to improve labor market dynamics and ensure that economic diversification plans are matched with the right labor force to see it through. First the incentive gap between public sector and private sector employment needs to close in. This means creating more opportunities for GCC nationals in the private sector, gradually shifting them from and constraining them in the public sector. Secondly educational and skill set development is extremely important, which will involve a reform process ranging from early schooling to higher education, and will call for a dialogue between industry and policy makers on understanding skill set requirements. Finally an expatriate workforce will continue to play an important role in the economic development of the region. However there needs to be a shift to higher skilled workers, to help drive innovation, competition and productivity. Unemployment Levels Comparison 12% 10% 8% 6% Shady Shaher Elborno Head of Macro Strategy ShadyB@emiratesnbd.com 4% 2% 0% Mohammed Ali Al-Tajir Research Analyst MohammedTAJ@emiratesnbd.com Source: World Bank, ENBD Research

2 The Current Structure of GCC Labor Markets The current structure of GCC labor markets is one that is largely dependent on imported labor, a legacy of decades of oil driven investments. Given the relatively smaller domestic populations in most GCC countries, there was a need to import the labor needed to build the required infrastructure and populate various services based industries where GCC nationals had no inclination to seek employment. This lack of inclination stemmed from an attractive public sector, that offered better wages, more benefits, less working hours, and more protection for GCC citizens in their respective countries. Furthermore given the smaller size of their local populations and the wealth created on the back of the oil sector, this was an affordable proposition. The model in the region worked very well for many decades. The foreign workforce played a key role in supporting the region s economic growth. They provided the skilled labor force that occupied professional jobs where there were not enough GCC nationals to do so, and also supplied the low skilled labor that took on much of the construction boom the region has seen. At the same time GCC citizens benefited from a generous public sector that offered citizens a significant wage differential over the private sector, and allowed them to raise their living standards and share the wealth of their economies. Social stability and economic stability have been two elements of the GCC model. The model has served social dynamics well, where citizens enjoy highs standards of living with access to education, healthcare and welfare. At the same time foreigners have enabled GCC countries to realize their economic aspirations through that larger transient workforce. This had positive spillover to the foreign workforce largely through remittances back to their home countries. The public sector in the GCC will at some point reach limitations in the rate of absorption of its national workforce. The drive of policymakers to diversify their economies out of oil and gas and envisage a larger role for the private sector is strongly driven by a need to ensure employment opportunities for nationals exist in the long run. The challenge will be balancing labor supply dynamics, where currently the public sector is largely dependent on nationals and the private sector on foreigners. For that to take place there needs to be an understanding of the structural challenges that raise the barriers for nationals to be employed in the public sector and take the steps needed to address that. Public Sector Employment Comparison ( ) 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% United Arab Emirates Jordan Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom General Gov Sector State Owned Enterprises Source: World Bank, ILO, ENBD Research Page 2

3 Public to Private: Transitions in progress The GCC public sector stands at a significant and distinct advantage compared to the private one, when it comes to attracting nationals for employment. Government jobs in the GCC are perceived as well remunerated, secure and less demanding than private sector ones. Thus the distortions are not only strong, but continue to grow stronger as the wage gap in particular continues to expand. The private sector which operates on a commercial and profit focused basis, will find it hard to match both entry wages and pay rises that the public sector offers. There are a number of challenges that this system imposes. First is the very important role the current systems imposes on expectations. There is a natural expectation among nationals to follow the path towards public sector employment, and this is built-up through social circles and attitudes especially towards higher education, where students become aware of the distinct benefit one sector offers over the other. Yet where the public sector offers security and benefits, it detracts from the incentives to innovate, compete and become more entrepreneurial. Thus this might be a factor in a relatively nascent entrepreneurial and SME sector where risk taking gives way to security and better incentives. The other challenge this system imposes is limitations. The public sector wage bill in the region has been rising. The IMF recently urged a number of GCC countries to reign in their public sector wage bills, especially in an environment of low oil prices and high capital expenditure needs. Furthermore as population growth accelerates, and privatization and private sector development projects move ahead, the scope of available public sector employment opportunities is getting tighter. According to data from the World Bank for example the UAE public sector wage bill stands at 10% of GDP. Governments are now realizing that urgent policy measures are needed to undertake a healthy transition that directs more new working age nationals towards the private sector. Youth Preference for Employment 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Bahrain Kuwait UAE Qatar Saudi Arabia Public Sector Private Sector Source: Gallup Survey 2010, World Bank, ENBD Research Page 3

4 While the transition from the onset seems very challenging, it can through the right set of policies be achievable. An important and fundamental driver to the success of this process is that the economic structures of most GCC economies have and are undergoing rapid change. Diversification is shifting the modus operandi of the economy to sectors that are more productive, innovation driven and competition fostering. Policymakers need to harness this shifting dynamic by addressing educational policies, private sector employment targets, and rebalance the flow of foreign labor towards attracting a higher skilled foreign workforce to help boost and spur productivity in the economy. There are a number of policy options that policy makers can adopt in the near term to begin spurring this transition to private sector employment. One option is to begin adopting more dynamic quota models for employing nationals in the private sector. This means setting quota s in line with the educational skill-set pool of nationals and potential graduates. It is important that the system is dynamic and able to adjust rapidly to supply and demand fundamentals of a particular sector. While this will not directly address the incentive gap, it does go some way towards displaying for nationals a commitment to ensure they are placed in the correct employment environment where the progression path is clearer. Thus this becomes an incentive in itself. Furthermore policymakers could begin to adopt a fee or employment tax selectively in certain sectors for employing foreigners. This needs to be a very delicate balance as it should not dis-incentivize the private sector from investing in the economy, while allowing for the collections from the fund to set training and development programs for nationals. In 2009 Bahrain introduced a USD 26 dollar monthly tax on every foreign worker to fund a program called Tamkeen to train nationals for employment in the private sector. The program has proved very successful, so far benefiting more than 130,000 in Bahrainis and businesses in areas from training and continuing education to business startup support. Other near term measures such a subsidizing wages, are likely to prove more challenging. While this could be applied selectively, and especially in cases where wage differentials are very significant, the problem they pose in continuity and precedent setting. Applying it on a large scale could prove wholly inefficient, as it would distort the incentives for genuine productivity, and indirectly weigh on a wage bill that policymakers are aiming to ultimately reign in. Rather the focus should be on highlighting the better long term progression opportunities of private sector employment for productive nationals, and the long term reward gains both financial and aspiration wise Wage Bill % of Budget Expenditure Comparison 11% 17% 21% 24% 25% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% United Arab Emirates Japan Italy Germany United States Source: ILO (2012 Estimates), ENBD Research Page 4

5 Education and Training: Gearing up Developing the education system is a natural progression of the sum of changes taking place in the economic model of GCC economies. The transition from being oil based to being diversified, will require human power to populate these new industries and sectors. Currently most of professional non-oil careers are populated by qualified foreigners in the region. A smaller local population in the past has been a key driver. However as the local population increases, training and qualifying nationals to populate these roles becomes more feasible. While the reward incentive challenge is a near term barrier, schooling and higher education can play a key role in shaping students mindsets to appreciate the long term career and reward benefits of private sector employment. The education system from schooling all the way up to higher education and other forms of institutional learning will be one of the key elements in helping direct students towards private sector employment. This will entail addressing issues ranging from the existing educational models, a focus on the content taught at schools and interaction between higher education institutions and industry on developing curriculum that will better benefit career seeking nationals opportunities in the private sector. Furthermore skillset building through specialized training institutions to bridge the existing skill gap for nationals already in the workforce is another important dimension. Schooling for instance could benefit from introducing more curriculum that simulates independent and creative thinking. Making the curriculum more dynamic will give students the skill sets that will allow them to perform better in an environment where innovation, and thinking out of the box is a competitive advantage to their career prospects and progression. The UAE in August 2016 announced significant reforms of its high school curriculum unifying a system that previously offered two streams humanities and sciences (where 80% of nationals chose the former). The new curriculum will focus on subjects of science, technology, engineering and mathematics, with students spending 50% of their time in class and the remainder learning practically in the field. Industry input to higher education can have a substantial impact on the range and quality of qualifications of nationals, and result in a better match between supply and demand in the job market. In other words opening a dialogue between the private sector and higher education in the GCC on types of career specializations for example, or engaging students directly in projects will result in more relevant higher education skill set building. Furthermore the involvement of the private sector through scholarships for example, will also demonstrate a genuine commitment to nationals, and help boost their social credentials. Qualification Mismatch of Youth with Jobs Asia Eastern Europe Latin America MENA Sub Saharan Africa Europe 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Well Matched Over Educated Under Educated Source: International Labor Organization 2014 Page 5

6 Productivity: Rebalancing Boosting labor productivity in the long run will be key to promoting growth in the non-oil sector. Productivity improvements will result in enhanced resource allocation and utilization, will boost competition, drive innovations and help attract investments to a more sustainable non-oil sector. According to data from the IMF labor productivity across much of the GCC has declined over the period between , falling at an average rate of 1.5% for the UAE, Bahrain and Qatar. One reason highlighted for the fall in productivity is in the inflow of low skilled labor for work in the construction sector over the last decade. In Qatar for example construction employment as a share of total employment rose from under 20% in 2001 to almost 45% in 2008, before declining to 37% in 2013 as the construction boom moderated slightly. Another important measure of productivity is called Total Factor of Productivity (TFP), which measure how efficiently all inputs are used in production. Data from the IMF for GCC over the period between 1990 to 2012 shows that total factor of productivity for both total output and non-oil output declined throughout the GCC, an outlier being non-oil output in Saudi Arabia which had a marginal increase. The weakness in TFP growth maybe a result of many factors one of them being inefficiencies in public spending. Another factor is that much of the investment over the last decades has been focused on infrastructure building, where the rising flow of low skilled workers to undertake ever larger construction contracts outstrips the aspired gains from utilizing that infrastructure towards more productive activities. There are some short term benefits to the current system that the productivity metrics do not fully capture. One of the factors is that low skilled labor actually keeps production costs low and in any case happens in a segment of the labor market where nationals really have no interest in seeking jobs. So while labor wages in the low skilled segment continue to be depressed they do not affect the segment of the market where nationals are seeking employment, that of the higher paying skilled professions. Nationals for example seeking employment in certain high skilled careers such as those in financial services or engineering where foreign workers dominate, have access to equal if not higher reward opportunities than public sector jobs. Thus in those segments where foreign workers actually push wages higher on the back of their skills, they have a positive impact on both productivity and the attractiveness of the private sector. Total Factor of Productivity Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE Source: IMF, ENBD Research Page 6

7 One comparison and distinction to make is that between the GCC and other migrant receiving countries. Where the GCC lacks the population size to take on the low skilled jobs needed to boost rapid development, the GCC needs that migrant labor flow to enable it to achieve is development aspirations. In other countries the priorities are different, as domestic populations are large enough to take on both skilled and low skilled work, and they can have higher discretion in selecting migrants based on scarce qualifications and skills. This then boosts both total productivity and is unlikely to have a dampening effect on wages as selection focuses on jobs where domestic skills supply is limited. Addressing productivity is likely to be a key long term challenge. One important element would be policy decisions that balance low skilled labor needs with a move towards a more diversified productive economy. First there needs to be a better balance between capital investments decisions on infrastructure in particular relative to the needs of the economy. This means more effectively assessing the needs for investment in certain areas and ensuring mechanisms exist to gauge the performance and efficiency of these investments and being able to take decisions around that. So in the case of transport infrastructure for example railway projects need to take a proper gauge of what are the demographic and business logistics requirements of in certain geographies and align their projects with that. Other measures to improve productivity will include encouraging the development of the private sector and fostering an environment of entrepreneurship. Building innovation centric clusters around industrial diversification for example will raise the both demand for and assimilation of higher skilled workers. This will undoubtedly improve productivity measures. Furthermore labor market regulations need to allow for higher flexibility when it comes to high skilled foreign workers in particular to make the environment more attractive for attracting needed skills. Focusing efforts on the policy steps that are needed to address all of these structural re-alignments will be very useful at this stage, especially given the very significant transitions the economies of the region are now beginning to undertake. Youth Labor Force Participation Sub-Saharan Africa North Africa Middle East Latin America and the Caribbean South Asia South Eas Asia and the Pacific East Asia Central And South-Eastern Europe Developed Economies and EU Source: International Labor Organization 2014 Page 7

8 Final thoughts. The region s economic transition from hydrocarbon based to more diversified and productive economies entails a whole suite of adjustments where the common denominator will be more sustainable economies that create and drive prosperity for their people. An elemental part of this transition is undertaking difficult adjustments to rebalance labor markets. As the role of the private sector expands on the back of diversification initiatives, citizens of the GCC have a first right to access to opportunities created. Enabling citizens to take on these opportunities will involve empowering them with the skills needed, and educating them about the long term rewards prospects of private sector careers or entrepreneurial ventures. This mind shift challenge is not an easy one, however with the right mixture of policies and educative initiatives it is achievable. Shifting more of the GCC workforce from the public to the private sector is an important catalyst that can be achieved largely though education and training, but also through offering the local workforce a road-map for career progress and development in the private sector. The foreign workforce will continue playing a crucial role in the economic development of the region. However by adjusting the balance by attracting higher skilled workforce and reducing dependence on low skilled labor will also boost productivity metrics. Page 8

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