Gaining the competitive edge Vietnam Post WTO

Transcription

1 Gaining the competitive edge Vietnam Post WTO Ralf Matthaes Managing Director TNS Vietnam AMCHAM October 11, 2007

2 Gaining the competitive edge - AGENDA Looking at Asian trends to predict Vietnam s s potential Post WTO Asian / Vietnamese Population Trends Asian / Vietnamese Wealth Trends Asian / Vietnamese Consumption Trends Asian / Vietnamese Attitudinal Trends Vietnam s s Media landscape Post WTO Print Radio TV Rural consumers The next great opportunity GDP vs population Who is the average rural family Ownership comparison urban vs. rural 12 Changing trends

3 Looking at Asian trends to predict Vietnam s s consumer future Post WTO Vietnam

4 Population Trends

5 Asia s s Population (60% of global pop.) Population in Million Chindia Indonesia Japan Philippines Asia = 3,137,500, China / India 77% on the Asian population 2400 Vietnam Thailand Korea Malaysia Taiwan Hong Kong Vietnam = 2.7 % of Asia Singapore 4.5 Vietnam is home to Asia s 6 th largest population *Population estimated in 2006 *Source: GeoHive (

6 Vietnam has Asia s s 2 nd youngest population Vietnam Philippines India Malaysia Indonesia China Thailand Taiwan Singapore S Korea Hong Kong Japan % 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% % of Vietnamese are under 25 years old Growth Rate estimated in 2006 **Source: GeoHive (

7 Vietnam s s population growth rate Population Growth % Philippine Malaysia Singapore Indonesia India Vietnam 1.20 Thailand Taiwan China Hong Kong Korea 0.42 Japan 0.02 Vietnam has a sustainable & healthy population growth rate Growth Rate estimated in 2006 **Source: GeoHive (

8 Vietnam has the 2 nd largest family size Australia New Zealand Japan S Korea Hong Kong Taiwan Singapore China Thailand Indonesia Malaysia Vietnam Philippines persons 3-4 persons 5 + persons As Vietnam begins to urbanize family sizes shall decrease Growth Rate estimated in 2006 **Source: GeoHive ( Page 8

9 Vietnam has the 3 rd largest female working pop. China Thailand Female(%) Vietnam Male (%) Korea Indonesia Philippines Malaysia Taiwan Female consumers will become more and more important Employment%: *Data estimated in 2003 *Source: Asian Development Bank (ADB)- Key Indicators 2005 (

10 Number of Household - Millions China India Indonesia Japan Vietnam Korea Thailand Philippines Australia Taiwan Malaysia HK New Zealand Singapore Vietnam has the 5 th most number of households in Asia, making Vietnam very attractive for Investment **Source: GeoHive (

11 Vietnam has Asia s s smallest urban pop Singapore Hongkong N.Z. Australia Taiwan Korea Japan 66 Cities will swell just like in China Malaysia Indonesia Philippines China India Thailand VN Source: Country Statistics Offices

12 Population Insights Large, Young & Growing population Smaller household sizes Large female working population Huge urban migration More focus on Young consumers Female consumers Smaller size products Demand for services Building loyalty & consumer commitment MUCH MORE COMPETITION & PRICE DISPARITY

13 Wealth Trends

14 40,000 35,000 36,260 35,390 GDP per head In USD 30,000 25,000 27,320 27,150 25,390 20,000 15,000 16,480 15,110 10,000 5,000 5,150 2,750 - Australia Japan New Zealand Singapore HK Korea Taiwan Malaysia Thailand 1,700 1,290 1, China Indonesia Philippines Vietnam India Vietnam s GDP/ per capita has increase seven fold in the past 15 years

15 The emergence of an urban middle class SEC Scale A = US $1,001 + B = US $1, C = US $ D = US $ E = US $ F = US $150 below % 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% SEC AB SEC CD SEC EF Monthly declared household income The middle class in Urban Vietnam will drive consumersim Source: TNS VietCyle N = 2000 Urban

16 My standard of living VC VC Much lower than today Equal to today Much higher than today Somewhat lower than today Somewhat higher than today Vietnamese are still very optimistic about their economic futures Source: TNS / Gallup - Voice of People Survey

17 Wealth Insights Developing Middle class Larger spend contribution from urban areas Electronic banking & E-commerce will help stimulate economy More discretionary spend & Smaller household sizes More focus on The middle class Luxury goods Mass high quality products at better price points Modern trade easier distribution Technology to save time and money Wealth segments will create greater marketing polarization in terms of wants, needs, aspirations and affordability

18 Consumption Trends

19 Asia s s Media Spend Growth Vietnam India China Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Philippines Hongkong Korea Australia N.Z. Singapore Japan Taiwan Vietnam is experiencing a Media bonanza, which will slow down Source: TNS AP offices

20 FMCG Growth in Asian Countries (%) Vietnam is experiencing the fastest FMCG growth in Asia -8 Urban Vietnam National China National Thailand National Taiwan National Malaysia National Korea National Philippines Total FMCG Value Growth Rate (%) - Year 2006 vs. Year 2005

21 Asia s s Fast Food Penetration Local & Foreign FF purchase in past week urban only Philippines Malaysia China Indonesia Thailand VN India Though changing, Vietnamese still love their Pho! (88%)

22 Mobile Phone Ownership - Urban Singapore Taiwan Hongkong Korea Japan Australia N.Z Thailand Philippines Malaysia China VN Indonesia India Own personal mobile phone urban only Bye Bye Bamboo telephone, we re getting connected, like the rest of Asia

23 Internet Usage In-home Autralia Japan N.Z. Korea Singapore Hongkong Taiwan Thailand China Malaysia VN Philippines India Indonesia In-home account - Urban only Growth in internet usage will be key to catching up to the rest of Asia

24 Retail environment in Asia Direct Sales Traditional Trade Modern Trade Asia Vietnam Philippines Thailand China Korea Taiwan Malaysia Japan Though still small, modern trade will grow substantially in Vietnam

25 Consumption Insights Technology savvy consumers will leap frog technology Ad spend shall increase but become less effective Consumption will continue to increase, but products & services will need to better fit Vietnamese tastes and needs Retail outlets will become new battle ground for FMCG Thus, more focus on Technology New Advertising mediums Stronger focus on retail Better understanding of new consumer segments INNOVATION & CONSUMER EXCELLENCE & UNDERSTANDING WILL BE KEY TO SUCCESS

26 Attitudinal Trends

27 Vietnam happiest nation in Asia Viet Nam N= United States N= Philippines N= Singapore N= Japan N= India N= Indonesia N= China N= Korea N= % 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Very happy Quite happy Not very happy Not at all happy Vietnam s economic turn around has had a profound Positive effect on Vietnam s population Will it Last? Source: World value survey

28 A growing sense of national pride Philippines N=1200 Viet Nam N= Question :How proud are you to be [Nationality]? 1 Very proud 2 Quite proud 3 Not very proud 4 Not at all proud United States N= Very proud India N= Quite proud Indonesia N= Singapore N= Not very proud China N= Not at all proud Japan N= Korea N= % 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Economic development, success in sports and technology, development of local entertainment, realisation of own importance leading to higher pride Source: World value survey

29 Asian traditional values Indonesia N= Question :Do you think that a woman has to have children in order to be fulfilled or is this not necessary? Korea N= Not necessary 1 Needs children World Values Survey Philippines N= Viet Nam N= India N= Needs children Japan N= Not necessary Singapore N= China N= United States N= % 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Looking again at China & India, it appears that certain Vietnamese values will decline in the future Source: World value survey

30 Respect for Parents Viet Nam N= Question :With which of these two statements do you tend to agree? A. One must always love and respect parents. B. Parents must earn love and respect 1 Always 2 Earned 3 Neither World Values Survey 0.7 China N= Philippines N= Singapore N= Korea N= Always Indonesia N= Earned India N= United States N= Japan N= % 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Due to Asian Confucian family values, respect for parents should continue to be strong for years to come Source: World value survey

31 Attitudinal insights Happy Nation that will become less happy due to higher expectations Family will become less important while chasing the economic dream Further emancipation of women Parents advise will become less important National pride is very strong, this may erode Religion not seen as important but may see upswing due to above eroding values With such a young population, expectations will sky rocket Attitudes will become more demanding & self centered

32 Vietnam s s Media Landscape

33 Vietnam Media Landscape - Print Media 713 daily and periodical publications 77% urban population read last week All major newspapers also online Ownership: State-owned Source: TNS Media Vietnam

34 Vietnam Media Landscape - Radio 288 local FM stations 11 national radio stations (VOV) Hundreds of radio transmitters - rural 36% daily listenership in 6 largest cities Ownership: State-owned One foreign owned Radio Zone FM Source: TNS Media Vietnam

35 Vietnam Media Landscape - 1 national TV station (VTV) 1 Terrestrial Digital TV - VTC 65 local TV stations Mode of delivery: Free-to-air broadcast Cable Satellite dish antenna MMDS/DTH Cable providers: 6 Ownership: State-owned Landscape -Television Some foreign involvement expected soon Source: TNS Media Vietnam

36 More choices to watch - Hanoi Domestic channel Foreign channel Number of channels Source: TNS Media Habit Survey, Foreign programming has already gained preference in Hanoi on a short 3 years

37 More choices to watch - HCMC Domestic channel Foreign channel Number of channels In contrast, though catching up, local TV is still preferred in HCMC Source: TNS Media Habit Survey,

38 Total TV viewer-ship By consumption 250 TTV Minutes viewed st half 2003 Free2Air TV Cab/sat TV 1st half st half st half 2006 Satellite & Cable TV are beginning to challenge, Free to Air programming 1st half 2007 Source: TNS TV Audience Measurement,

39 The bigger the share the higher the loss TV rating of HTV7 in HCM City Vietnamese TV viewers are becoming much more demanding Source: TNS TV Audience Measurement,

40 Media spend grew by 40% from 2005 to 2006 But, how effective is it?

41 Vietnam s s Rural Consumer

42 Why Rural Vietnam becomes more & more important? 4 Key Urban Cities Population (%): 9.9 GDP (%): 25.6 Still plays a vital role in the economy Lots of information available Battlefield with fierce competition Secondary Cities Population (%): 13.6 GDP (%): 11.9 The next engine of growth, but limited Limited information available Battlefield in the near future Rural Locations Population (%): 76.5 GDP (%): 62.5 The future mass engine of growth No full insights available at the moment 1 st entry advantage for manufacturers ` the sixth sense of business 42

43 What are the available consumers in each region? (available consumers are those with monthly income > 1.5mln VND) 42% with income > 1.5mln VND 62% population aged Total available consumers: 17mln Rural Low Income: 7% Medium Income: 53% High Income: 40% Low Income: 58% Medium Income: 39% High Income: 3% Low Income: < 1.5 mln VND per month Medium Income: mln VND per month High Income: >4.5 mln VND per month Urban 93% with income > 1.5mln VND 62% population aged Total available consumers: 5mln Source: TNS Vietnam Rural Pilot Survey & TNS Worldpanel Vietnam % of households ` the sixth sense of business 43

44 Understanding an average Rural family Household Size 4 members vs. 4.6 in urban 100% traditional trade vs. 14% Modern Trade in urban Shopping Habits Rural Employment Farmer/ Shop Owner vs. employee & self-employed in urban 425,000 VND vs. 681,000 VND in urban Monthly FMCG Spending Monthly Income mln VND vs. 4.2 mln in urban Source: TNS Vietnam Rural Pilot Survey & TNS Worldpanel Vietnam % of households ` the sixth sense of business 44

45 Durable Ownership FMCG Impact Items Most of rural households are now using electronic cooker. However, there is still a big gap with urban families in make-life-easier products Rural vs. Urban 10% vs. 49% 30% vs. 78% 92% vs. 96% Washing Machine Refrigerator 1% vs. 13% Electronic Cooker 53% vs. 88% Microwave Oven Gas Cooker Source: TNS Vietnam Rural Pilot Survey & TNS Worldpanel Vietnam % of households ` the sixth sense of business 45

46 Durable Ownership Communication Impact Items Color television nowadays becomes a necessity in rural. Radio is also very popular while telephone and computer are still limited. 95% in rural vs. 97% in urban 45% in rural vs. 82% in urban Color Television 32% in rural vs. 4% in urban Telephone 9% in rural vs. 41% in urban Radio/ Cassette Computer Source: TNS Vietnam Rural Pilot Survey & TNS Worldpanel Vietnam % of households ` the sixth sense of business 46

47 Durable Ownership Luxury Items There s also a big gap in ownership of high-tech equipments between rural and urban households 2% in rural vs. 22% in urban 28% in rural vs. 42% in urban Air Conditioner 3% in rural vs. 34% in urban Video Recorder/ Player 9% in rural vs. 35% in urban Still Camera Hi-fi / Music System Source: TNS Vietnam Rural Pilot Survey & TNS Worldpanel Vietnam % of households ` the sixth sense of business 47

48 Sector Ownership Mobile phone already reaches 33% rural population while Internet is still at the very infant stage there! Motorbike ownership is mostly at the low & medium range below 15mln VND one unit Technology Banking & Finance Automotive Mobile phone: 33% in Rural vs. 66% in Urban Internet: 1% in Rural vs. 45% in Urban Insurance: 7% in Rural vs. 9% in Urban Bank account: 6% in Rural vs. 35% in Urban ATM card: 4% in Rural vs. 20% in Urban Motorbike less than 10mil VND: 40% Motorbike 11-15mil VND: 31% Motorbike 16-39mil VND: 13% Motorbike in Urban: 92% Source: TNS Vietnam Rural Pilot Survey & TNS Worldpanel Vietnam % of households ` the sixth sense of business 48

49 12 Major Trends Of Change ` the sixth sense of business 49

50 Upgrading needs ` the sixth sense of business 50

51 Family and Work Question: For each of the following aspects, indicate how important it is in your life. % saying very important on a four point scale. World Values Survey China Korea Philippines Family Indonesia Viet Nam Singapore Work India Japan United States Vietnamese are working harder to improve their lives, Changing family dynamics and time spend with kids Source: World value survey ` the sixth sense of business 51

52 Convenience Convenience ` the sixth sense of business 52

53 Sales growth per channel (%) Direct sales 34 Mordern trade 14 Streetshop 11 All Channels 11 Market 8 Specialty 7 Though still small, modern trade will grow substantially in Vietnam Changing shopping habits and the Vietnamese shopping list ` the sixth sense of business 53

54 Indulgence (Health consciousness) ` the sixth sense of business 54

55 Two forms of malnutrition % Obesity 12% Malnutrition 2007 Wealth has decreased malnutrition, but indulgence has Changed eating habits and increased obesity Source: Study on nutritional status & physical activities of children 6- the sixth sense of business 11y.o NIN & Nestlé ` 55

56 Status Men s care (displaying wealth) ` the sixth sense of business 56

57 Luxury Goods penetration 22% urban 42% urban Air Conditioner 34% urban Luxury goods are permeating into a 3 rd of Vietnamese urban households, Changing entertainment habits DVD 35% urban Still Camera Home Entertainment System Source: TNS Vietnam Rural Pilot Survey - % of households ` the sixth sense of business 57

58 Female Health Emancipation & Beauty ` the sixth sense of business 58

59 Ideal female occupation 21% 26 Unlike my mother s time, women now aspire to be more independent by working & earning money in order to have their own income instead of being housewives Business manager Look after the family / home Business owner / entrepreneur Teacher Doctor/ pharmacist VC 2001, n=636 VC 2004, n=683 VC 2006, n=1009 Female consumers will become more and more important, Changing who advertisers target in the future ` the sixth sense of business 59

60 Innovation Innovation ` the sixth sense of business 60

61 84% of Urban 15 to 24 youths surf weekly % 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Have used the internet Not yet Vietnamese youth are leading the charge for Change, with 57% of the population yet to become consumers Source: TNS VietCyle N = 2000 Urban ` the sixth sense of business 61

62 Differentiation ` the sixth sense of business 62

63 Vietnamese youth are flexing their creative flair Short hair styles look dynamic & fashionable Being dynamic is a key to success Wearing different style of clothes is a way to make myself differentiated Youth are Changing, just to be different ` the sixth sense of business 63

64 Urban Migration ` the sixth sense of business 64

65 Vietnam has Asia s s smallest urban pop Malaysia Indonesia Philippines China India Thailand VN Over 200,000 Vietnamese migrate into HCMC every year, looking to find the promised land Cities will swell just like in China, Changing the economic fabric of Vietnam Source: Country Statistics Offices ` the sixth sense of business 65

66 Technology savvy ` the sixth sense of business 66

67 Technology embracers DVD Player Flat screen TV Personal computer Mobile phone Video disk VCD Technology today is all the rage, Changing all facets of communication, entertainment and commerce Source: TNS VietCycle ` the sixth sense of business 67

68 Media fragmentation ` the sixth sense of business 68

69 Vietnam Media fragmentation TV is Still the King Radio & internet advertising is growing rapidly Vietnam s Advertising spend grew at rate of 40% in 2006, Changing how media influences everyday life in Vietnam Source: TNS Media Vietnam

70 Inflation ` the sixth sense of business 70

71 Cost of Living in New York = Philippines India Vietnam 62 Malaysia Thailand Indonesia China Taiwan New Zealand Australia HK Singapore Korea 115 Japan Vietnam was 38% cheaper than New York in 2006, but inflation is Changing how we will consume in the future Growth Rate estimated in 2006 **Source: GeoHive ( ` the sixth sense of business 71

72 Fading traditions ` the sixth sense of business 72

73 A Historical Perspective on the Future What genre of music do you prefer? Economic Boom Total By age Economic reform Post war Baby Boom Traditions are fading The lean years 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Western Asian Vietnamese pop Vietnamese traditional Source: TNS VietCycle Vietnamese pop music is a reflection of modern culture, Identifying how traditions will Change in the future

74 Summation ` the sixth sense of business 74

75 Summation Population shifts will impact both spending power & consumer needs ` the sixth sense of business 75

76 Summation Competition will increase steadily, creating more consumer sophistication ` the sixth sense of business 76

77 Summation Wealth polarization will create clearer consumer segments ` the sixth sense of business 77

78 Summation Distribution will become easier, with the growth of modern trade ` the sixth sense of business 78

79 Summation Media fragmentation shall reduce advertising impact ` the sixth sense of business 79

80 Summation Attitudes will become more demanding & self centered The Me Generation ` the sixth sense of business 80

81 Summation Youth culture will need to be embraced, while managing expectations to ensure sustainability ` the sixth sense of business 81

82 The changing face of consumerism As you can see, the face of consumerism has changed dramatically over the last 10 years However, please be reminded that not only the Vietnamese consumer has changed the last 10 years.

83 So has TNS Global. 77 Countries 300 Offices Over employees ` the sixth sense of business 83

84 and so have we. FSA / TNS 1996 TNS 2006

85 and so have I. I Hanoi, Jan HCMC, Oct. 2007

86 Thank You / Cam On! ` the sixth sense of business 86