Challenges of Latin America and the Caribbean in front of the current development crossroads

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1 Challenges of Latin America and the Caribbean in front of the current development crossroads ANTONIO PRADO DEPUTY EXECUTIVE SECRETARY Regional Meeting of the Ambassadors of Norway in Latin America Santiago, 20 January 2016

2 Latin America and the Caribbean is at a crossroads

3 After a period of prosperity, the region is facing a more difficult external context and slower economic growth The world economy has not expanded as expected. Growth projections for 2016 (2.9%) are slightly better than those for 2015 (2.4%). Upturn in growth in the United States (about 2.6% in 2016) with positive impacts for remittances, tourism and trade in Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean. Fiscal imbalances and lack of competitiveness in the eurozone, plus high unemployment and slow growth of 2.0% in 2016 are acting as a drag on global trade. Slowdown in China from a growth of 9.2% in 2011 to a lesser growth of 6.5% in 2016 is having an impact on countries that export natural resources. End of quantitative easing (QE) in the United States and launch of QE in Europe likely to create more volatile financial conditions.

4 The economic and trade slowdown indicates a future with lower growth LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: ANNUAL VARIATION IN MERCHANDISE EXPORTS, a (Percentages) Panama Dominican Republic Bolivia (Plur. State of) Central America Nicaragua Cuba Guatemala Peru Costa Rica 1.0 Honduras Colombia Paraguay Mexico Haiti El Salvador Chile The Caribbean Uruguay Argentina Ecuador Latin America and the Caribbean South America Brazil Volume Price Value Venezuela (Bol. Rep. of) -7,0 Source: ECLAC, based on official figures from the countries central banks, customs offices and national institutes of statistics. a Figures for 2015 and 2016 are projections. LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: GDP GROWTH, 2016 a (Percentages, on the basis of dollars at constant 2010 prices) -0,8-2,0 6,2 5,2 4,5 4,3 4,3 4,2 4,0 3,4 3,3 3,3 3,0 3,0 2,6 2,5 2,4 2,1 1,6 1,5 0,8 0,3 0,

5 Global tectonic shifts Reorganization of the global economy and international politics in trade blocs: TPP, TTIP, RCEP, BRICS Decoupling of the financial economy from the real economy Technology revolution without precedent Tendency towards global inequality An uneven demographic transition: some countries have a demographic dividend, others have an ageing population Large-scale migration as a result of disasters, wars and inequality Urbanization: 80% of the population lives in cities Growing ecological footprint Vulnerability to climate change and to natural disasters (cumulative cost of US$ 350 billion) Conflicts, violence and insecurity

6 Nicaragua Guatemala Honduras Rep. Dominicana El Salvador México Paraguay Uruguay Costa Rica Panamá Venezuela Bolivia Argentina Brasil Ecuador Colombia Perú Chile Promedio Not enough was done to increase investment in human capacities, and to reduce inequality AMÉRICA LATINA: POBLACIÓN AÑOS QUE CONCLUYÓ LA EDUCACIÓN SECUNDARIA, 2010 (Porcentajes) Quintil 1 Quintil AMÉRICA LATINA (PROMEDIO SIMPLE 18 PAÍSES): CONCLUSIÓN DE AL MENOS CINCO AÑOS DE EDUCACIÓN TERCIARIA ENTRE JÓVENES DE 25 A 29 AÑOS, SEGÚN QUINTILES DE INGRESO PER CÁPITA Y SEXO, ALREDEDOR DE 2010 (Porcentajes) Hombres Mujeres Quintil 1 Quintil 2 Quintil 3 Quintil 4 Quintil Total Fuente: CEPAL sobre la base de tabulaciones especiales de las encuestas de hogares de los países. Nota: El dato de Argentina corresponde al Gran Buenos Aires y el de Uruguay a zonas urbanas.

7 With social progress, the region still remains the worst distribution of income, and other inequalities LATIN AMERICA: a POVERTY AND INDIGENCE, b (Percentages) LATIN AMERICA AND OTHER WORLD REGIONS: GINI COEFFICIENT, AROUND Poor Indigent 0.00 Latin America and the Caribbean (18) Sub- Saharan Africa (39) East Asia and the Pacific (10) North Africa and Middle East (9) South Asia (8) Western Europe and Central Asia (21) OECD (22) Source: ECLAC, on the basis of special tabulations of data from household surveys. a Estimate for 18 countries of the region plus Haiti. c The 2014 figures are projections. Source: ECLAC, on the basis of special tabulations of data from household surveys in the respective countries.

8 Vulnerability has come down considerably, but still applies to half the population LATIN AMERICA (WEIGHTED AVERAGE FOR 18 COUNTRIES AND FOR 8 COUNTRIES): PROFILE OF INCOME VULNERABILITY, AROUND 1990, 2002, 2008 AND 2013, AND BY RACE OR ETHNIC GROUP, AROUND 2011 (Percentages) Source: ECLAC, Inclusive social development: the next generation of policies for overcoming poverty and reducing inequality in Latin America and the Caribbean, Santiago, November, a Weighted average for the Plurinational State of Bolivia (2009), Brazil (2011), Chile (2011), Ecuador (2011), Mexico (2010), Paraguay (2011), Peru (2011) and Uruguay (2011).

9 With challenges of environmental sustainability to move towards low-carbon paths LATIN AMERICA: PER CAPITA GDP AND PER CAPITA ENERGY CONSUMPTION, 2008 (Kilograms of oil equivalent and 2005 purchasing power parity dollars) GLOBAL TRENDS IN GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS, (Percentages of global emissions) Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Structural Change for Equality: an integrated approach to development (LC/G.2524(SES.34/3)), Santiago, Chile, Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), The European Union and Latin America and the Caribbean in the new economic and social context, Santiago, 2015.

10 Five major structural challenges

11 Insufficient investment for development and innovation In infrastructure In research, science and innovation In development banking: inclusive financing In cleaner production solutions GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION, (Percentages of GDP, on the basis of dollars at constant 2005 prices) Latin America Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures and World Bank, World Development Indicators. Eastern Asia and Pacific

12 2. Insufficient and limited fiscal space: little and poor taxation INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON OF THE LEVEL AND STRUCTURE OF THE TAX BURDEN (Percentages of GDP) Regressive tax structure Low tax burden in most countries High evasion Widespread exemptions Social spending has a limited redistributive impact Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and International Monetary Fund (IMF). a The coverage for calculating the Latin American average refers to central government except in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica and the Plurinational State of Bolivia, where it refers to general government.

13 3. The production structure has not changed: it is heterogeneous and a source of inequalities LATIN AMERICA (18 COUNTRIES): STRUCTURAL HETEROGENEITY INDICATORS, AROUND 2009 (Percentages) LATIN AMERICA (18 COUNTRIES): GDP PER WORKER, PPP AROUND 2009 (Thousands of dollars) Source: ECLAC, on the basis of R. Infante, América Latina en el umbral del desarrollo. Un ejercicio de convergencia productiva, Working Paper, No. 14, Santiago, Chile, June 2011, unpublished.

14 The greatest structural challenge is to diversify the export pattern to reduce dependence on raw materials LATIN AMERICA AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES IN EAST ASIA: PATTERN OF STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND SHARE OF EXPORTS, (Percentages) LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: EXPORT STRUCTURE BY TECHNOLOGY INTENSITY, (Percentages of the total) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% % High-technology manufactures Low-technology manufactures Raw materials Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. Medium-technology manufactures Natural resource-based manufactures

15 4. Functional inequality: increasing concentration of income, capital and technology LATIN AMERICA (13 COUNTRIES): VARIATION IN GINI INDEX AND WAGES RELATIVE TO GDP, 2002 AND 2009 Gini index Share of wages in GDP (Percentages) Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of CEPALSTAT, National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) of Argentina, and the central banks of Costa Rica, Guatemala and Uruguay.

16 5. The region continues to trade little with each itself and with low levels of productive integration SELECTED GROUPINGS: SHARE OF INTRA-GROUP EXPORTS IN TOTAL EXPORTS, (Percentages) SHARE OF PARTS AND COMPONENTS IN INTRA-GROUP EXPORTS, 2013 (Percentages) 70 Grouping Percentage ASEAN+5 34 TLCAN European Union Latin America and the Caribbean European Union ASEAN+5 a NAFTA Latin America and the Caribbean Latin America and the Caribbean (excluding Mexico) Source: ECLAC, on the basis of United Nations Commodity Trade Database (COMTRADE). a Includes the 10 members of ASEAN and China, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China, and Taiwan Province of China.

17 ECLAC proposal: structural change for equality and sustainability

18 The road in the social sphere Consolidate social public spending as a countercyclical fiscal policy tool with more efficient implementation. Create opportunities for financing social spending. Design a new generation of social policies linked with social investment, with instruments and mechanisms to increase efficiency, effectiveness, impact and sustainability. Investment in innovation, education and employment for youth, generating solid bases for achieving objectives of structural change for equality. Active policies on care and time-liberation, with a view to full incorporation of women into the labour market

19 Re-establishment of a productive architecture Promote structural change by mainstreaming environmental sustainability With new institutions that promote productivity from an explicit industrial policy Link low productivity sectors with those at the frontier technology Integrated support strategy for SMEs with inclusive financing that meshes well with the most dynamic sectors Greater hierarchy for science and technology Mediation mechanisms for social and environmental conflicts Land use planning and urban planning

20 Time for production integration Integration is a multidimensional process encompassing economic, political, social, cultural and environmental issues. The production dimension as a strategic element of regional integration Tackling inequality as well as social policies calls for a change in the production and export structure and the creation of good quality and progressively more sophisticated activities. The regional space is the most conducive to this transformation

21 Politics and policymaking: the importance of compacts The development crossroads the region has reached calls for revisiting the way in which its institutions and structures are linked to one another, involving a wide range of agents in the process A compact is a political instrument for putting into place, within a democratic framework, medium-term institutional policies and reforms with a strategic vision, with less risk that they will be reversed later A social compact is necessary at a time of changes in the interaction between the State, the market and society, with social effervescence and the emergence of new forms of participation The citizenry is a party to the compact, as a full bearer of rights, with the State acting as guarantor of those rights

22 Compacts relating to the seven pillars for transforming the region s development process A fiscal compact A compact for investment and industrial policy A social and labour compact A compact for social welfare and public services A compact for environmental sustainability A compact for natural resource governance A compact among the international community for development and cooperation towards 2030

23 Compacts make it politically feasible to chart a new path of growth and structural change to ensure progressive and sustainable steps towards greater equality, based on proposals that have been developed and implemented by participatory and democratic methods, thus avoiding the danger that proposals will remain in the realm of volunteerism and the expression of good intentions.

24

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