LOYOLA MARYMOUNT UNIVERSITY 2014 FROM THOSE WHO KNOW IT BEST RESIDENTS AND LEADERS

Transcription

1 LOYOLA MARYMOUNT UNIVERSITY 2014 FROM THOSE WHO KNOW IT BEST AND LEADERS

2 Forecast LA would like to thank the following companies and organizations for their support.

3 FORECAST LA Forecast LA, Loyola Marymount University s inaugural study, takes an interdisciplinary approach to understanding the Los Angeles region.

4 CONTENTS Contents ABOUT US... 4 AUTHORS... 5 SUMMARY... 6 METHODOLOGY... 8 DEMOGRAPHICS SURVEY RESULTS CENTER ACTIVITIES What does it mean to be an Angeleno?

5 FORECAST LA Creative lifestyle. Ambitious. Ser un angelino es como sentirme en mi país. Somebody who loves sunshine. Como vivo aquí aunque no soy nacida aquí, para mi es de mucha importancia porque mis hijos son nacidos aquí. You have to be open minded with the variety of people and treat everyone with respect. Hipster. Bluecollar. Optimistic. Urban. Diverse. Respondents from Loyola Marymount University s 2014 Public Outlook Survey 2014 FORECAST LA 3

6 ABOUT US About Us The Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles at Loyola Marymount University is one of the leading undergraduate research centers in the nation. It is a respected leader in public opinion surveys, exit polling, and leadership and community studies. Founded in 1996, the Center also conducts groundbreaking research on voter preferences and voting patterns, quality of life concerns, and contemporary urban issues. The Center provides rigorous, mentored research experiences for undergraduate students at LMU. Loyola Marymount University Located between the Pacific Ocean and downtown Los Angeles, Loyola Marymount University is a comprehensive university offering 60 major programs, 41 master s degrees and a doctoral degree in education from four colleges, two schools and Loyola Law School. Founded in 1911, LMU is ranked third in Best Regional Universities (West) by U.S. News and World Report. LMU is one of the largest Catholic institutions of higher education on the West Coast, with over 6,000 undergraduate students and more than 3,000 graduate and law students. Committed to ethical formation as well as academic excellence, the university emphasizes its Jesuit and Marymount traditions through the education of the whole person. 4 FORECAST LA 2014

7 AUTHOR BIOS Fernando J. Guerra, professor of political science and Chicana/o studies, is the founding director of the Center for the Study of Los Angeles at Loyola Marymount University. He earned his doctorate in Political Science from the University of Michigan and his B.A. from the University of Southern California. Guerra has served on standing commissions, blue ribbon committees, and ad hoc task forces for the City of Los Angeles, the State of California, and regional bodies in Southern California. He is a source for the media at the local, national, and international level and has published in the area of state and local government and urban and ethnic politics. Brianne Gilbert is the associate director of the Center for the Study of Los Angeles. She has an extensive background in the areas of voter surveys, public opinion research, quantitative methodology, and geographic information systems (GIS). She is the author of Statistics in the Social Sciences: Inferential Statistics as Rhetoric in Sociology. Gilbert earned her M.A. and teaching certification from Florida International University and her B.A. from Wittenberg University, both in sociology with emphases on methodology and statistics. She has served as a GIS and statistical consultant in such fields as anthropology, business, environmental studies, geology, medicine, and sociology. Brittany Machado is the Research Analyst at the Center for the Study of Los Angeles. She is involved with the various phases of research studies including survey development, implementation, and the dissemination of each study s findings. As the undergraduate student supervisor, she works daily with the Center s student researchers to develop their methodological and technical skills. Machado is also developing original educational and event programming for the Center that prepares students for careers in politics, international affairs, business, and research. She earned her M.A. in the social sciences from the University of Chicago and has conducted work across several fields. Berto Solis is the Communications Coordinator at the Center for the Study of Los Angeles. He plans, organizes, and implements various events the Center hosts such as its biannual lecture series, election central, and most recently Forecast LA, as well as maintains the Center s websites and social media channels. Before joining the Center s team he worked at UC Santa Barbara s Davidson Library in the Government Publications Unit and later as the Special Collections Audio/Visual Digitization Lab Head Technician/Team Leader, specializing in cylinder recording digitization and restoration. Berto earned his B.A. in Spanish and Latin American and Iberian Studies from UC Santa Barbara in FORECAST LA 5

8 Summary What Residents Say Angelenos are an optimistic people. They believe in their region, their cities, and especially their neighborhoods. The greatest resource for any community are its people; the more optimistic the people the greater the civic resource. Angelenos believe we are heading in the right direction, that the economy will improve, and that they will be in a better financial situation by the end of the year. By wide margins they recommend their city and neighborhood to others; they believe that their neighborhoods are a safe place to live, a good place to raise their children, and a good place to live overall. A large majority of Angelenos plan to stay in the region. But not every aspect of life is positive. Angelenos believe that the disparity between the rich and poor will increase, that unemployment will decrease but not significantly, that housing and healthcare costs will continue to increase and most pessimistically, that a vast majority of residents cannot afford to buy a home in Los Angeles. Challenges persist. To face these challenges leaders require a triad of information for a comprehensive analysis. Leaders need to know what is happening, what their residents believe is happening, and what their colleagues are thinking and doing. This triad of information provides a strong foundation for decision making. In this forecast we provide quantitative data on the economy, public opinion data from the residents, and a systematic study of leadership. This is the first forecast that combines these fundamental pieces of information for Los Angeles or any region. What Leaders Say While residents are optimistic, the mayors of Los Angeles County are even more optimistic about their cities and their ability to affect change. When asked about moving in the right direction, whether the economy will do better in 2014, and whether their residents finances would improve in 2014, 2020 or 2050; mayors were not only optimistic about their region, but much more optimistic about their cities. Over the entire survey, when asked about conditions in the nation, state, county, and their individual cities, optimism was decidedly higher for their individual cities compared to the county, the county compared to 6 FORECAST LA 2014

9 SUMMARY the state and the state compared to the nation. Just like the residents, the closer the geographic area being discussed the more optimistic the views of the mayors. Mayors also believe that they do much more in their cities to improve their economy in relation to other cities in the county, that they will be able to attract both large and small businesses to their cities, and that their residents are much better off than those in other parts of the county. Mayors, much like residents, are concerned about healthcare costs. Mayors also are concerned about revenue growth, but by a wide margin are not in favor of increasing taxes. Mayors are very much in sync with their residents about continuing problems with economic disparity; they both believe that it will continue to increase. However, residents are twice as pessimistic as mayors about the ability of residents to purchase a home in their cities. One major problem for the region is the belief of mayors that the vast majority of businesses that will move into their cities will come from other parts of the county. That is, while selected cities will see an increase in businesses and jobs, there will be no net increase for the region. Contrary to expert opinion, mayors believe that city councils have more influence over their economy than other levels of governments such as the Board of Supervisors, the state legislature, or the U.S. Congress. When asked about their biggest concern, mayors chose political paralysis in Washington D.C. and Sacramento over a major earthquake or an international economic meltdown. While mayors believe their operating budgets will increase they do not see hiring many more city employees. A majority of mayors would also like to see a new hybrid type of pension for employees to replace the defined benefit plan. Finally, when asked to rank their priorities from over twenty selected issues, mayors ranked reducing crime first, followed by developing new redevelopment alternatives, increasing retail services, providing job opportunities, and tied for fifth priority improving public education and improving quality of streets. In general, mayors show an amazing optimism and a strong belief in local action. Combined with the positive economic indicators, residential optimism, and leadership action, the region is poised to improve over the coming year. Residents and leaders throughout Los Angeles County now have a method to express their opinions on a myriad of urban services, civic concerns, cultural identity, and satisfaction in the region overall. Forecast LA provides a holistic perspective that goes beyond voters and elections, since residents do not need to be registered voters to participate in the economic and civic life of Los Angeles. What do all the residents of Los Angeles County think about their region, their cities, and their neighborhoods? Forecast LA attempts to address this question FORECAST LA 7

10 Methodology As part of Forecast LA s unique approach to forecasting in the Los Angeles region, the Center for the Study of Los Angeles conducted two outlook surveys. The Leaders Outlook Survey involved face-to-face interviews with Los Angeles County mayors who discussed their term-of-office priorities, how their municipalities will fare economically in the short and long term, and other topical issues. The Public Outlook Survey involved 20-minute telephone sessions with 2,400 adults living in Los Angeles County. Survey respondents were asked about quality-of-life concerns, personal economic well-being, homeownership, overall life satisfaction, and various civic issues. Leaders Outlook Survey SAMPLING The universe of this survey included every mayor serving each of the 88 cities in Los Angeles County, including both elected and rotating mayors. Rotating mayors were included in the universe regardless of length of time served as mayor. Including mayors of eight of the top ten most populous cities in the county, 60 mayors completed the survey. These mayors represent 83% of the residents in Los Angeles County who live in incorporated cities. DATA COLLECTION In an initial letter, students at Loyola Marymount University and researchers at the Center for the Study of Los Angeles contacted each of the mayors to request their interview participation and explain the survey. Interviews were conducted in a three and a half month period from October 2013 to January Students and Center researchers then followed up with their assigned mayors to schedule and conduct their surveys individually. The subject consent form took subjects approximately five minutes to read and sign for consent to participate. This time also included answering any questions the mayor may have asked the interviewer. On average, interviews took 38 minutes to complete. Mayors were interviewed in their government offices, public places, and places of business. The survey was administered by the student (or in less than 20% of the interviews, by Center researchers), who read aloud multiple choice questions, as well as the open-ended interviewstyle questions. Students recorded interviews (when consent was given by subjects) using a digital recorder provided by the Center. In the case that consent was not given by subjects, students wrote notes on the subject s answers. At any point the mayor was allowed to opt out of the survey. In addition mayors were informed that there were minimal risks associated with this study and that no penalties existed if he or she chose not to participate. After the interview and survey administration, students were required to report immediately to the Center to deposit their recorder and completed survey. Students transcribed open-ended questions and Center researchers inputted survey data. 8 FORECAST LA 2014

11 METHODOLOGY Public Outlook Survey SAMPLING Since the primary purpose of this study was to gather representative input from adult residents within the Los Angeles region, a random digit dial (RDD) sample was employed. The RDD sample was drawn by determining the active phone exchanges (the first three numbers of a sevendigit phone number) and blocks with a given sampling area (in this case, by the zip codes that comprise the county) and then producing a random list of all active residential and cell phone numbers in the area. This method produced both listed and unlisted phone numbers. SCREENERS The protocol for this study involved asking potential respondents a series of questions, referred to as screeners, which were used to ensure that the person lived within the county and was at least 18 years old. These screeners were necessary to correct one of the inherent tendencies of the RDD method to over-sample older residents and women. Specifically, RDD samples typically overrepresent women and older residents because they are often more likely to be home in the early evening or on the weekend and are also more likely to answer the telephone. To adjust for this bias, interviewers asked to speak to the youngest male in the household. If the youngest male was not available at the time of the call, the interviewer asked to speak to the youngest female at home at the time. A gender quota was imposed for male and female respondents to prohibit the responses from being too heavily favored for one gender over the other. DATA COLLECTION Telephone interviews were conducted the first three full weeks in January 2014 between the hours of 4:30pm and 9pm during the week, 10am to 4pm on Saturday and 10am to 5pm on Sunday. The survey was translated into Spanish, Mandarin, and Korean; Spanish, Mandarin, and Korean-speaking interviewers were available for those respondents who only spoke, or were more comfortable speaking, either of those languages. The average length of the survey was 21 minutes. 2,400 residents (1,200 from the city of Los Angeles and 1,200 from Los Angeles County who live outside the city of LA) made up the sample for the Public Outlook Survey. Racial/ ethnicity quotas were employed in each sample to achieve desired numbers of respondents identifying as Latinos, Whites, African Americans, and Asian Americans FORECAST LA 9

12 DEMOGRAPHICS: Residents surveyed (2,400) 10 FORECAST LA 2014

13 DEMOGRAPHICS: Demographics: Residents 18 and Older GENDER Male 49% Female 51% RACE/ETHNICITY Latino 43% White 31% African American 9% Asian American 15% Other ethnicity 2% AGE % % % 65 & over 15% EDUCATION Less than high school 14% High/tech school graduate 48% College graduate 27% Graduate degree 11% EMPLOYMENT Employed full-time 45% Employed part-time 13% Student 6% Homemaker 8% Retired 17% Unemployed 11% UNION MEMBERSHIP No one in my household belongs to a union I or someone in my household belongs to a government union I or someone in my household belongs to a private union POLITICAL IDEOLOGY Liberal 37% Moderate 32% Conservative 32% HOUSEHOLD INCOME Under $40K 45% $40K 69,999 23% $70K 99,999 14% $100K 149,999 9% $150K or more 9% MARITAL STATUS Single 30% Married 50% Divorced/Separated 9% Widowed 6% Domestic partnership 5% BIRTH COUNTRY 78% 13% 9% U.S. born 60% Naturalized 25% Non-citizen 15% YEARS LIVED IN LOS ANGELES 5 years or less 4% 6-15 years 19% years 26% 26 or more years 51% 2014 FORECAST LA 11

14 DEMOGRAPHICS: LEADERS ERIC GARCETTI, Los Angeles BOB FOSTER, Long Beach DAVE WEAVER, Glendale R. REX PARRIS, Lancaster FRANK SCOTTO, Torrance BILL BOGAARD, Pasadena ANDRE QUINTERO, El Monte FERNANDO VASQUEZ, Downey JAMES T. BUTTS JR., Inglewood LUIGI VERNOLA, Norwalk EMILY GABEL-LUDDY, Burbank AJA BROWN, Compton GIL HURTADO, South Gate JIM DEAR, Carson PAM O CONNOR, Santa Monica DANIEL JUAREZ, Hawthorne STEVE CROFT, Lakewood RAY DUNTON, Bellflower AIDE CASTRO, Lynwood STEVE ASPEL, Redondo Beach BRENT A. TERCERO, Pico Rivera CHRISTINA CORTEZ, Montebello PAUL K. TANAKA, Gardena MARIO GOMEZ, Huntington Park MICKEY SEGAL, Arcadia POLLY LOW, Rosemead STEVE DE RUSE, La Mirada WALTER ALLEN III, Covina JOSEPH R. ROCHA, Azusa SUSAN BROOKS, Rancho Palos Verdes CHARLIE KLINAKIS, La Puente JULI COSTANZO, San Gabriel The 60 mayors interviewed as part of the Leaders Outlook Survey represent 83% of the LA County residents who live in cities. City with mayor interviewed (60) City with mayor not interviewed (28) 12 FORECAST LA 2014

15 DEMOGRAPHICS: LEADERS Demographics: Leaders JEFFREY COOPER, Culver City GENDER Male 73% Female 27% RACE/ETHNICITY Latino 25% White 55% African American 8% Asian American 7% Other ethnicity 6% Multiple responses allowed. AGE % % % 65 & over 34% EDUCATION High school diploma or equivalent 23% College degree 37% Graduate degree 40% CURRENT OR PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE Member of a private sector union 22% Member of a public sector union 25% Small business owner 58% Elected member of another local office 18% Member of your party s central committee 8% Legislative aid 10% Multiple responses allowed. POLITICAL PARTY Democrat 57% Republican 35% Declined to state 7% Other 2% POLITICAL IDEOLOGY Liberal 27% Moderate 45% Conservative 28% BIRTH COUNTRY Born in the United States 92% Not born in the United States 8% PARENTS BIRTH COUNTRY Both were born in the United States 70% One was born in the United States 10% Both were born in another country 20% YEARS LIVED IN LOS ANGELES 2 5 years 2% 6-10 years 3% years 2% 16 years or more 93% MARY ANN LUTZ, Monrovia DAVID LESSER, Manhattan Beach OPANYI NASIALI, Claremont ABBE LAND, West Hollywood CURT MORRIS, San Dimas PAT KEARNEY, Lawndale DON KENDRICK, La Verne ANTONIO TONY CARTAGENA, Walnut RICHARD D. SCHNEIDER, South Pasadena ANTONIO LOPEZ, San Fernando FRED GAINES, Calabasas MARGARET E. FINLAY, Duarte DENIS WEBER, Agoura Hills LAURA OLHASSO, La Cañada Flintridge MARGARET ESTRADA, Lomita LUIS LOUIE AGUIÑAGA, South El Monte BILL FISHER, El Segundo SALLY ZUNIGA FLOWERS, Artesia RICHARD J. MOORE, Santa Fe Springs RICHARD WARD, San Marino JOE AGUILAR, Commerce JOAN HOUSE, Malibu NANCY WALSH, Sierra Madre MICHAEL J. NOLL, Signal Hill PHILIPPA KLESSIG, Westlake Village FRANK V. ZERUNYAN, Rolling Hills Estates ROY FRANCIS, La Habra Heights 2014 FORECAST LA 13

16 SURVEY RESULTS LEADERS How do you think things are going in the (nation/state/region/city/ neighborhood): in the right direction or the wrong direction? Residents are optimistic about the direction of their neighborhoods, cities, and region. The closer to home, the more optimistic residents are. Personal investment in the area is a strong driver of optimism. Leaders reflect a similar trend towards optimism the smaller the area of focus. The converse can also be observed: pessimism increases in relation to the state and national areas among leaders. Direct involvement with the region continues to be a strong driver of optimism: nearly all leaders believe their cities are going in the right direction. NATION STATE LA REGION/ COUNTY RIGHT DIRECTION WRONG DIRECTION RIGHT DIREC TION WRONG DIRECTION RIGHT DIRECTION WRONG DIRECTION LEADERS CITY/AREA RIGHT DIRECTION WRONG DIRECTION NEIGHBORHOOD RIGHT DIRECTION WRONG DIRECTION All numbers represent percentages, unless otherwise indicated. Due to rounding, not all columns total 100%. 14 FORECAST LA 2014

17 SURVEY RESULTS Are we going in the right or wrong direction, and how does that relate to ethnicity? AFRICAN AMERICAN ASIAN AMERICAN WHITE LOS ANGELES REGION RIGHT DIRECTION WRONG DIRECTION RIGHT DIRECTION CITY/AREA WRONG DIRECTION NEIGHBORHOOD RIGHT DIRECTION WRONG DIRECTION All groups of Angelenos see their region and city going in a positive direction; some more than others. Asians are the most optimistic, followed by Latinos and African Americans. Immigrants, mostly Latinos and Asians, are much more optimistic than US born residents. Our results show that immigrants continue to believe in the California dream. LATINO OTHER Are we going in the right or wrong direction, and how does that relate to ideology? LIBERAL MODERATE CONSERVATIVE LOS ANGELES REGION RIGHT DIRECTION WRONG DIRECTION RIGHT DIRECTION CITY/AREA WRONG DIRECTION NEIGHBORHOOD RIGHT DIRECTION WRONG DIRECTION Liberals, moderates, and conservatives are equally optimistic about the direction of their neighborhoods. As observed previously, as the geographic area covered by the question gets larger and more distant, optimism decreases. Residents political ideology is related to how sharp this decrease in optimism will be. Conservatives show the largest drop in optimism towards their city and region, followed by moderates, and lastly liberals. The closer to home the more optimistic each group becomes, especially conservatives FORECAST LA 15

18 SURVEY RESULTS The majority of residents are optimistic about the economy improving over time. The longer the time frame, the more optimistic residents feel. The shorter the timeframe, the more cautiously optimistic residents feel. While only 14% consider the economy to be likely much better in the next year, 60% consider the economy to be somewhat better in the next year. Over the long term cautious optimism turns into outright optimism. In general, do you believe the economy will do much better, somewhat better, somewhat worse, or much worse in 2014 than 2013? % of residents who think the enonomy will be much better 36% 28% 14% years years 2034 LEADERS Over the course of the next year, leaders are very optimistic about the state of the economy in the national, state, county, and city level. Leaders are most optimistic about the economies they can directly influence, showing a 100% and 94% rate of optimism for their cities and counties respectively. As their ability to influence the region diminishes, their optimism in regards to its financial future decreases. Do you believe the economy will do better in 2014 than 2013? Nation 83% State 83% County 94% City 100% 16 FORECAST LA 2014

19 S U R VEY RES U LT S Relative to the rest of the county, in 2014 will your city s residents be better off, about the same, or worse off? LEADERS LEADERS BETTER OFF SAME WORSE OFF While both residents and leaders do not expect the regional economy to worsen in the next year, leaders are more likely to be optimistic while residents are more likely to expect the status quo to continue. Given the power, influence, and responsibility inherent to their positions, leaders are likely to expect improvements just as their constituents are likely to demand them. Meanwhile, residents continue to exhibit a cautious optimism in regards to their future. By the end of the year, do you expect the financial situation in your household to improve, worsen, or stay the same? AFRICAN AMERICAN ASIAN AMERICAN WHITE LATINO IMPROVE STAY THE SAME WORSEN 32 6 Residents do not expect their household incomes to decrease over the next year. Most residents expect their income to improve or stay the same. In terms of race and ethnicity, Asian Americans and whites show the most pessimism in terms of their finances, with a majority expecting their income to decrease or remain the same. Conversely, more than half of Latinos and African Americans expect their incomes to increase over the next year. OTHER 2014 FORECAST LA

20 SURVEY RESULTS Residents are most willing to increase their taxes for education, firefighting services, and street improvements. Residents are somewhat willing to increase their taxes for earthquake retrofitting and police services. Residents are least willing to increase their taxes for transportation and redevelopment. This is the opinion of both registered and non-registered voters, all of them taxpayers. Currently the county s sales tax is 9.0%. Would you be willing to increase that tax for the following projects? TRANSPORTATION RETROFITTING EDUCATION STREET IMPROVEMENT 44% 50% 51% 55% 67% 59% 72% POLICE 50% FIRE FIGHTERS 64% REDEVELOPMENT 45% 18 FORECAST LA 2014

21 SURVEY RESULTS Currently the county s sales tax is 9.0%. Would you be willing to increase that tax for the following projects, and how does that relate to race and ethnicity? TRANSPORTATION African American 40% Asian American 34% White 40% Latino 52% Other 50% 50% 55% 67% RETROFITTING African American 58% Asian American 41% White 33% Latino 65% Other 50% When it comes to supporting taxes there is a wide variety of differences among ethnic groups. There are no taxes Latinos do not support. Whites only support tax increases for education. Asians, in addition to education, support tax increases for fire services, but nothing else. African Americans are more like Latinos, although they do not support taxes for transportation, police, or redevelopment. Again, this is the combined opinion of both registered voters and nonvoters, all of them taxpayers. EDUCATION African American 74% Asian American 65% White 54% Latino 87% Other 74% STREET IMPROVEMENT African American 62% Asian American 49% White 45% Latino 73% Other 62% POLICE African American 44% Asian American 46% White 37% Latino 61% Other 47% FIRE FIGHTERS African American 67% Asian American 53% White 48% Latino 78% Other 73% REDEVELOPMENT African American 49% Asian American 33% White 24% Latino 63% Other 39% 2014 FORECAST LA 19

22 SURVEY RESULTS LEADERS Do you think the majority of residents in your city/area can afford to buy a home? Optimism about local residents prospects for buying a home is low for both leaders and residents. Leaders, however, are less pessimistic about the prospects of local residents ability to purchase a home. This leader/resident gap might be explained by the fact that leaders are overwhelmingly homeowners in comparison to their residents. no no 62% 83% LEADERS Every type of Angeleno is pessimistic about a majority of residents being able to afford a home in their respective city. No matter the type of city or type of resident, this pessimism about homeownership holds true. Do you think the majority of residents in your city/area can afford to buy a home? EMPLOYMENT Employed full time Employed part time YES NO CITIZENSHIP U.S. born Naturalized YES NO Student Non-citizen Homemaker Retired Unemployed EDUCATION LEVEL Less than high school High school degree College degree Graduate degree FORECAST LA 2014

23 SURVEY RESULTS Do you think the growing economic disparity between the rich and the poor will increase, stay the same, or decrease in the future? LEADERS LEADERS AGREE INCREASE STAY THE SAME DECREASE Recently the state voted to increase the minimum wage to $10 per hour starting in Do you agree or disagree with this new law? 86 Residents believe that economic disparity will continue to increase over the course of the next year. Leaders are almost evenly split in their belief that economic disparity will increase or will increase or remain the same by the end of Almost no leaders see a decrease in income disparity in the future while a hopeful number of residents foresee a decrease in income disparity. Residents overwhelmingly support a minimum wage increase while one of the primary concerns for leaders was job creation. DISAGREE 14 Do you believe the following will increase, stay about the same, or decrease by the end of the year? UNEMPLOYMENT HOUSING PRICES HEALTHCARE COSTS INCREASE STAY THE SAME DECREASE Not surprisingly, residents believe that housing and healthcare costs will continue to increase in the next year. Only 35% of residents believe that the unemployment rate will decrease in the next year. The three major drivers of an individual s economic situation are not improving as rapidly as many would like to see. Despite these concerns, it seems that residents remain optimistic about their overall quality of life FORECAST LA 21

24 SURVEY RESULTS Los Angeles has been and remains a manufacturing center, a trade hub, an entertainment capital, a financial headquarters, a tourism darling, and a real estate powerhouse in varying degrees of prestige, notoriety, and stability. Real estate has been the only economic sector to navigate the many tumultuous changes in demographics, economics, environment, and politics in the area, despite the low importance residents attribute to it. It appears that residents are focused on future-oriented sectors (i.e., technology) and not on the most historic and consistent, real estate. On a scale of 1 to 5 with 5 being the most important and 1 being the least important, how important are the following sectors to the county s economy? TECHNOLOGY TRADE FINANCE MAUFACTURING TOURISM ENTERTAINMENT REAL ESTATE 3.9 Numbers represent the average ranking. It is difficult to say what makes an Angeleno or even who is an Angeleno. Whatever the term means, a vast majority of Los Angeles County residents identify themselves as Angelenos. Do you consider yourself to be an Angeleno? 76% yes no 24% 22 FORECAST LA 2014

25 SURVEY RESULTS Do you consider yourself to be an Angeleno? CITY/COUNTY City of LA LA County, excluding city of LA ETHNICITY African American Asian American White Latino Other YES NO Not surprisingly, residents of the city of Los Angeles are more likely to identify as Angelenos than the residents of Los Angeles County, but not by a large margin. While all ethnic groups identify as Angelenos, Latinos and Asians are especially likely to identify as such. Noncitizens and naturalized citizens are also more likely to identify themselves as Angelenos. Los Angeles is a city of immigrants and the perceived identities of those groups reflect a strong association. CITIZENSHIP U.S. born Naturalized Non-citizen FORECAST LA 23

26 SURVEY RESULTS Half of all residents consider their expectations of the government to be unmet while most are satisfied or very satisfied with the services the government offers. This apparent contradiction disappears as the specific registers of residents satisfaction are explored. Few residents express high levels of satisfaction with the services they receive; most residents are merely satisfied with the services they receive. Satisfaction is not a glowing endorsement of quality. In terms of expectations, do the services the city/county government provides exceed your expectations, meet your expectations, or fall short of your expectations? Exceed expectations Meet expectations Fall short of expectations Overall how satisfied would you say you are with the quality of the services that your city/county provides? Very satisfied Satisfied Neither satisfied nor unsatisfied Unsatisfied Very unsatisfied FORECAST LA 2014

27 S U R VEY RES U LT S Do the services your city/county government provide exceed your expectations, meet your expectations, or fall short of your expectations, and how does that relate to the length of your time living in LA? % of residents who think the gov t falls short of expectations LESS OR MORE The expectations residents have of their governments increase the longer they remain in the region. Residents who have lived here longest expect the most from their governments. Long-time residents may be more aware of the services provided and therefore expect more, or may be older in age and therefore more reliant on government-provided services. Residents who are newest to the region report the government meeting their expectations. These may be younger residents, those who are unaware of, or not heavily reliant on, the services provided, or it could be that newer residents needs are most in-line with the government s priorities. Do you think your city/county does enough, more than enough, or not enough to integrate immigrants into the community? ENOUGH MORE THAN ENOUGH NOT ENOUGH LA COUNTY CITY OF LA LA COUNTY EXCLUDING THE CITY OF LA Residents are split on their perception of the government s efforts in dealing with immigration, though more so in the city of Los Angeles than in the county alone or in the county overall. That the city of Los Angeles has a complex perspective about efforts surrounding immigration integration (including recently reopening the Office of Immigrant Affairs) further cements its status as an immigrant s city FORECAST LA

28 SURVEY RESULTS Residents enjoy the environment, amenities, and education their cities offer and appreciate the sense of community and diversity their cities give them. Nevertheless, residents worry about the affordability of their homes and healthcare and about their access to desirable work. Residents also worry about homelessness and disaster preparedness. Overall, a majority of residents believe they have a good to excellent quality of life. In your city/county, how would you rate the characteristics as a whole using the scale excellent, good, fair, or poor? CHARACTERISTICS EXCELLENT GOOD FAIR POOR Overall quality 14% 44% 37% 6% Appearance 14% 40% 36% 11% Access to health care 9% 33% 36% 22% Quality housing 6% 22% 39% 34% Desirable employ 6% 23% 40% 32% Culture & recreation 15% 39% 35% 11% Quality of amenities 19% 47% 28% 6% K-12 education 13% 37% 29% 21% Traffic mobility 9% 34% 32% 25% Public transport 14% 41% 31% 14% Walkability 15% 38% 32% 15% Crime & safety 11% 36% 36% 17% Sense of community 15% 36% 36% 13% Integration 12% 40% 35% 13% Environment 10% 39% 38% 13% Homelessness 6% 21% 30% 43% Mental health 10% 35% 33% 21% Disaster 9% 36% 37% 18% 26 FORECAST LA 2014

29 SURVEY RESULTS If someone was interested in moving to your neighborhood, would you recommend it for the following aspects? AS A PLACE TO LIVE OVERALL AS A SAFE PLACE TO LIVE YES NO Residents eagerly recommend their city or neighborhood as a place to live, especially in regards to their overall quality of life. By a small factor, pessimism increases in regards to recommending their city or neighborhood when it comes to work and retirement. AS A PLACE TO RAISE CHILDREN AS A PLACE TO RETIRE AS A PLACE TO WORK FOR ITS OVERALL QUALITY OF LIFE FORECAST LA 27

30 SURVEY RESULTS Anxiety about having work hours reduced is related to historically unstable demographic groups such as young people, low wage earners, non-citizens, and new residents. The most vulnerable residents tend to be a combination of these demographic factors. Not surprisingly, older residents, residents with incomes over 100k, or college educated residents are the least likely to expect decreased hours. In terms of racial and ethnic groups, Latinos and Asians feel their work hours are the most threatened followed by African Americans and lastly whites. Do you, or does someone in your household, expect to have hours at work reduced at some point during the current year, 2014? ETHNICITY African American Asian American White Latino Other CITIZENSHIP U.S. born Naturalized YES AGE & over EDUCATION LEVEL Less than high school High school degree College degree YES Non-citizen 26 Graduate degree 12 INCOME POLITICAL BELIEFS Under 40K 26 Liberal 16 $40K 69, Moderate 19 $70K 99, Conservative 23 $100K 149,999 7 $150K and over 10 LIVED IN LOS ANGELES 5 years or less years years years or more FORECAST LA 2014

31 S U R VEY RES U LT S If you ve lived in LA for five years or less, why did you move to the Los Angeles region? If you ve lived in LA for more than five years, why do you stay in the Los Angeles region? Strong job market/employment economic opportunity Proximity to family and/or friends Neighborhoods/sense of community Diverse population opportunities/ Green living, including walkability and biking REASONS TO MOVE TO LA REASONS TO STAY IN LA People move to Los Angeles County for the educational, vocational, and environmental opportunities the region offers and to be closer to their friends and families. Residents stay in the region for the same reasons in addition to gaining a sense of community and learning to appreciate the region s various amenities and unique diversity. Proximity to activites and amenities (e.g., entertainment, arts, sports, etc.) Mass transit options Housing options Educational opportunities (public, private, parochial, higher education) Environmental factors (e.g., weather, beach, etc.) Reputation/spirit of Los Angeles How likely are you to move out of the Los Angeles region in the next 5 years? VERY LIKELY More than two thirds of the residents surveyed do not plan on leaving the region in the next five years. SOMEWHAT LIKELY NOT VERY LIKELY NOT LIKELY AT ALL 2014 FORECAST LA

32 Center Activities The Center for the Study of Los Angeles produces a wide variety of scholarly work, from journal articles, presentations, and studies to commissioned volumes regarding Los Angeles and its prominent members. In addition to these research projects and as part of its commitment to education about the region, the Center for the Study of Los Angeles hosts a diverse range of events, many of which are free and open to the public. CENTER FOR THE STUDY OF LOS ANGELES STUDENT RESEARCH ASSISTANTS ZAYD AL-MARAYATI Class of 2016 STEPHANIE ANAYA Class of 2016 COLIN ARNOLD Class of 2015 ISABEL CASSO Class of 2015 JASMINE DAVIES Class of 2014 KATHERINE HENLEY Class of 2014 DANIEL HOLLIS Class of 2014 BRENDAN HUGHES Class of 2014 BRIANNA MEDINA Class of 2017 NAREK MKRTOUMIAN Class of 2015 CHRISTOPHER MOSSER Class of 2014 ALISON SACKERSON Class of 2015 ANDREW SMITH Class of 2014 BIANCA VILLASENOR Class of 2014 SUMMER WALL Class of 2015 THE TOP 100 MOST SIGNIFICANT ELECTED OFFICEHOLDERS IN LOS ANGELES COUNTY The Top 100 is a database of the 100 most powerful elected positions in Los Angeles County dating back to By recording the name, ethnicity, gender, and election year of each officeholder, the Top 100 database demonstrates the significant shifts in minority political inclusion over the last several decades. The record accounts for changes in structures such as atlarge elections, redistricting, and the creation of new positions. Ethnicities are coded as white, Latino, black, Asian American, and Jewish. The result is a powerful visual tool that tells the story of a changing political landscape and the future of more equal representation. THE TOP 300 MOST SIGNIFICANT ELECTED OFFICEHOLDERS IN CALIFORNIA The Top 300 is an extension of the Top 100. This database includes the state constitutional officers, Board of Equalization, U.S. Representatives, the Board of Supervisors for the ten largest counties, and the city councilmembers of the top ten most populous cities in the state. All of these elected officials are also entered by election year and coded for race (white, Latino, black, and Asian American) as well as gender. This data shows a clear shift in power and the effects of redistricting on minority political inclusion. THE SACRAMENTO SEMINAR The Sacramento Seminar is an annual event attended by colleges and universities from throughout the state spend three days in the state capitol learning about politics, public policy, and careers in government service. The core of the Seminar is a series of panels with elected officials, lobbyists, chiefs of staff, interns, and Capital Fellows; topics have included the future of public policy, the new superminority, the effects of redistricting, and more. Additionally, students attend a networking reception, take tours of the capitol, and establish relationships with colleagues from other universities to better equip them as future leaders. THE LEADERSHIP INITIATIVE The Leadership Initiative is an effort to promote effective leadership development, civic engagement, and public policy advocacy in Los Angeles. The Center is conducting an integrative study of leaders in ten sectors including politics, education, arts/culture, business, community, health, land use/housing, law, media/ entertainment, and religion/spirituality. Upon completion, the Center s Leadership Initiative will have identified and surveyed 1,000 leaders who impact public policy. The objective of this project is to provide data that will encourage collaborative leadership and accountability for better community outcomes in Los Angeles. 30 FORECAST LA 2014

33 CENTER ACTIVITIES LA/DF: DEVELOPING BINATIONAL LEADERS Los Angeles/Mexico City (DF) is a university-led Los Angeles/Mexico City partnership and consortium to prepare a new generation of leadership working in both countries across a variety of companies, institutions, organizations, and sectors that have binational U.S./Mexico operations. A group of LMU students complete a 15-week course of preparatory briefings, meetings, and local field trips prior to traveling to Mexico City in for a week-long immersion. Through this program Los Angeles and Mexico City-based college students acquire a greater understanding of their own metropolis through a systematic and guided comparison of the structures and dynamics of these two megacities. THE EXIT POLLS To address methodological issues surrounding the discrepancies in 2000 and 2004 Presidential election exit poll results (e.g., poor sampling techniques, inaccurate results, and skewed reporting of underrepresented subgroups (e.g., African American and Latino voters), LMU researchers developed and implemented an innovative sampling technique known as the racially stratified homogenous precinct approach in the city of Los Angeles. Since then the Center has conducted eight exit polls and has produced some of the most accurate exit polling results in the country. To date, over 1,000 undergraduate researchers at LMU have collected more than 17,000 surveys. THE LA RIOTS ANNIVERSARY STUDIES The 1992 LA Riots had a profound impact on nearly every aspect of Los Angeles, from government and community relations to quality of life to demographics. Many wondered how these Riots would affect future quality of life, and race relations in LA could no longer be ignored. In observance of each of the 5, 10, 15, and 20 year anniversaries of the LA Riots, the Center for the Study of LA sponsored cross-sectional phone surveys of Angelenos to study their attitudes toward Los Angeles. In a longitudinal effort to learn more about this impact, the Center conducted surveys in 1997, 2002, 2007, and THE UNDERGRADUATE RESEARCH SYMPOSIUM The Undergraduate Research Symposium (URS) is an annual conference hosted by Loyola Marymount University displaying the works of several hundred students. Each year the Center works with a majority of its student researchers to design, organize, and present their research at the URS. The students use statistical analysis programs (Stata and SPSS) to analyze data, geographic information systems (GIS) to create maps, Qualtrics to create and distribute surveys, and learn interviewing techniques to develop their projects. Our students are trained to use a host of large datasets such as the U.S. Decennial Census and American Community Survey. Most often students choose to use data from one or more of the dozens of surveys the Center has conducted since its inception. Given the Center staff s high standards, the process often entails dozens of drafts but yields excellent, graduate-level work. LECTURE SERIES The Center organizes various lectures throughout the year which are filmed and aired on LA36. This year the Center is launching its new Forecast LA Lecture Series in conjunction with the Forecast LA conference which will focus on the future of regional issues such as water, power, transportation, education, and elections. Previous lectures have featured hundreds of panelists on a variety of topics relating to the city, county, region, state, and nation. These lectures give students an intimate look at the places in which they live and allow them to interact with their public leaders. THE THOMAS AND DOROTHY LEAVEY CENTER FOR THE STUDY OF LOS ANGELES RESEARCH COLLECTION The Research Collection is a special collection focused on preserving Los Angeles political artifacts. It houses papers of Los Angeles public officials; Los Angeles real estate and industrial developers; reformers and reform movements (principally in the late twentieth-century Los Angeles); prominent Roman Catholic families in Los Angeles; and other collections related to Los Angeles history and politics. Most recently the Center celebrated the addition of the Bill Rosendahl-Adelphia Communication Corporate Collection or Public Affairs Television Programs. The Research Collection promotes undergraduate research and preserves knowledge for future generations of Angelenos. CENTER FOR THE STUDY OF LOS ANGELES DEVELOPMENT COUNCIL MR. STEVE SOBOROFF Chairman, Center for the Study of Los Angeles Development Council Managing Partner, Soboroff Partners MR. RAUL AMEZCUA Principal, De La Rosa and Co MS. BARBARA CASEY CEO, Casey & Sayer MR. ALEX MARTIN CHAVES CEO, Parking Company of America Management MR. HENRY CISNEROS Founder & Chairman, CityView MR. THOMAS FLINTOFT Founding Principal, Kindel Gagan MR. JIM GARRISON President, Pacific Federal Insurance Co. MR. RUBEN GONZALEZ Vice President of Public Policy, Political Affairs, LA Area Chamber of Commerce MS. LISA GRITZNER President, Cerrell Associates, Inc. MR. JOHN GUERRA Regional Public Affairs Manager, Southern California Gas Company, retired MR. RANDAL HERNANDEZ External Affairs Executive, Union Bank MS. FRAN INMAN Senior Vice President, Majestic Realty Co. DR. DAVID O. LEVINE Chief of Staff, Jerry Epstein, Shores Marina del Rey MR. ALEXANDER MORADI Managing Partner & Founder, ICO Group MR. GEORGE L. PLA President & CEO, Cordoba Corporation MR. TIMOTHY G. PSOMAS Chairman, PSOMAS MS. RENATA SIMRIL Senior Vice President for External Affairs, Los Angeles Dodgers MR. MARK SLAVKIN Vice President for Education, The Music Center MR. PETER VILLEGAS First Vice President, National Manager, Office of Corporate Responsibility, JP Morgan Chase 2014 FORECAST LA 31

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35 Working together to create a prosperous tomorrow Wells Fargo Capital Finance is proud to support the Forecast LA Conference. When we all come together to support our communities, we create a better and brighter world. Wells Fargo Capital Finance wellsfargocapitalfinance.com 2014 Wells Fargo Capital Finance. All rights reserved. Products and services require credit approval. Wells Fargo Capital Finance is the trade name for certain asset-based lending services, senior secured lending services, accounts receivable and purchase order finance services, and channel finance services of Wells Fargo & Company and its subsidiaries. WCS (01/14)

36 Low-cal options. No-cal options. However-you-and-your-family-roll options. There are people s tastes. And then there are people s taste buds. Satisfying both is why we offer such a wide range of low- and no-calorie options (150 in the U.S. alone), as well as portion-control packages, that can fit into a balanced diet and active lifestyle. Variety it s just another thing we re doing to help make the world we all live in a little bit better. To learn more about what we re doing and why we re doing it, join us at livepositively.com 2012 The Coca-Cola Company glacéau, glacéau, vitaminwater, bottle design and label are registered trademarks and vitaminwater zero is a trademark of glacéau. TRUVIA is a trademark of The Truvía Company L.L.C. You are a visionary. You see tomorrow where others only see today. You find new ways to inspire our community. You provide the leadership for generations to come. For your unique vision, we salute you. Union Bank is proud to support and sponsor the Loyola Marymount University Forecast LA inaugural event. Leticia Aguilar, Executive Vice President, Regional President 445 South Figueroa Street, Los Angeles, CA 90071, unionbank.com 2014 Union Bank, N.A. All rights reserved.

37 Metro is proud to sponsor Forecast LA. Sodexo is a proud sponsor of the economic forecast summit at LMU. To learn more about Metro s projects and programs, visit facebook.com/losangelesmetro ml 2014 lacmta The Future has Landed at LAX New Tom Bradley International Terminal is proud to support Loyola Marymount University and Forecast LA With more than $80 billion in assets under management, Payden & Rygel is one of the largest privately owned investment managers in the United States. Rendering: Joe Cordelle, Courtesy of Fentress Architects

38 California Community Foundation is proud to sponsor Forecast LA in creating insight into the future of economic development and equitable opportunity in Los Angeles County The Center has let me explore my original research. Working here has polished my analytical skills & knowledge of public policy. I love the fact that that as students we get hands-on experience and excellent professional development. Working at the the Center has given me an active knowledge of my city. The Center taught me so much about local politics. -Student Research Assistants, Class of 2014

39 Smart Insight for Business and Government Small businesses, Fortune 500 companies, the State of California, major cities and counties, and a leading Wall Street hedge fund all use analysis from Beacon Economics. Learn more at Economic & Revenue Forecasting Economic Impact Analysis Economic Policy Analysis Real Estate Market Analysis EB-5 Visa Economic Analysis Expert Witness Services Public Speaking

40 THE ENERGY OF» ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Southern California Gas Company (SoCalGas ) applauds Loyola Marymount University (LMU) and its Center for the Study of Los Angeles for giving back such positive energy to Southern California. We share LMU s commitment to the community. For more than 140 years, SoCalGas has been committed to providing safe and reliable energy to the communities we serve. We are proud to be a part of this year s Forecast LA conference and wish the Center for the Study of Los Angeles continued success. socalgas.com 2014 Southern California Gas Company. All copyright and trademark rights reserved. N

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42 Leadership Through leadership, strength and a commitment to excellence, we can reach new heights together. We proudly sponsor Loyola Marymount University. chase.com 2014 JPMorgan Chase & Co.

43 We provide only the best laundry equipment and service for your residents

44 A splash on your behalf The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California proudly supports Loyola Marymount University s Inaugural FORECAST LA mwdh2o.com Los Angeles 2 nd Regional Investors Conference February Issuer presentations from: City of Los Angeles Los Angeles World Airports Port of Los Angeles Department of Water & Power County of Los Angeles Los Angeles Unified School District Metropolitan Transportation Authority City Administrative Officer For agenda and conference materials visit cao.lacity.org Forecast LA has given me a rare glimpse at what lies ahead for Los Angeles. Our future will be bright. Steve Soboroff

45 The Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles thanks the residents and leaders of Los Angeles County for sharing their insights & allowing us to create FORECAST LA

46 Proud Sponsors of Forecast LA Laborers Local 300 Sergio Rascón Business Manager Membership & Executive Board Metro is proud to sponsor Forecast LA. To learn more about Metro s projects and programs, visit metrolosangeles facebook.com/losangelesmetro Bank of America is honored to support Loyola Marymount University & the Forecast LA Conference Thank you for all that you do for Los Angeles. Your presence here creates connections that enrich our entire community and we are honored to support the great work you are doing. Visit us at bankofamerica.com/la Life s better when we re connected 2014 Bank of America Corporation ARH46WCM

47 PARTNERS IN BUILDING A BOLD FUTURE BOLD IN BUSINESS The L.A. Area Chamber has championed the needs of the business community and the citizens of the L.A. region for more than 125 years. From serving as the voice of the business in the halls of government to promoting economic development and fostering collaboration throughout the community, the Chamber has worked to ensure economic prosperity and quality of life in our region. lachamber.com

48 The LADWP is pleased to serve as a sponsor for the 2014 LMU Forecast LA Conference LADWP continues as a major contributor to the economic growth of Los Angeles and Southern California HAYNES REPOWERING PROJECT UV FILTRATION PROJECT HEADWORKS PROJECT SCATTERGOOD PROJECT For information on our many infrastructure and economic development programs go to LADWP1

49 Proud to Support Forecast LA The Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles at Loyola Marymount University and Beacon Economics Employee Benefits: What we do best! Pacific Federal Insurance Corporation One of California s Largest Privately-Owned Employee Benefit Firms PacFed Insurance Services CA License # PacFed Benefit Administrators CA License # 0B North Central Avenue, Suite 400, Glendale, CA 91202

50 for more information: thomas and dorothy leavey center for the study of los angeles loyola marymount university 1 lmu drive, suite 4119 los angeles, ca forecastla@lmu.edu reproduction of this document or any portion therein is prohibited without the express written permission of the center for the study of los angeles. copyright 2014 by loyola marymount university. designed by ginny warren