Table A.1. Jointly Democratic, Contiguous Dyads (for entire time period noted) Time Period State A State B Border First Joint Which Comes First?
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1 Online Appendix Owsiak, Andrew P., and John A. Vasquez The Cart and the Horse Redux: The Timing of Border Settlement and Joint Democracy. British Journal of Political Science, forthcoming. Appendix A: List of Jointly Democratic, Contiguous (for entire time period noted) Table A.1. Jointly Democratic, Contiguous (for entire time period noted) Time Period State A State B Border First Joint Which Comes First? Settles Democracy United States Canada Settlement United Kingdom Ireland Joint Democracy Netherlands West Germany Settlement Belgium West Germany Settlement Switzerland West Germany Settlement Germany Czech Republic Settlement West Germany Austria Settlement West Germany Denmark Settlement Poland Czech Republic Settlement Poland Slovakia Settlement Austria Czech Republic Settlement Austria Slovakia Settlement Austria Slovenia Settlement Hungary Slovakia Settlement Hungary Slovenia Settlement Hungary Czechoslovakia Settlement Czech Republic Slovakia Joint Democracy Italy Slovenia Settlement Macedonia Greece Settlement Macedonia Bulgaria Settlement Namibia Botswana Settlement United States Canada Settlement United Kingdom Ireland Joint Democracy United States Canada Settlement United Kingdom Ireland Joint Democracy Netherlands Belgium Settlement Netherlands West Germany Settlement Belgium West Germany Settlement Switzerland West Germany Settlement Switzerland Austria Settlement West Germany Austria Settlement West Germany Denmark Settlement Austria Italy Settlement Finland Sweden Settlement Finland Norway Settlement Sweden Norway Settlement United States Canada Settlement Honduras El Salvador Joint Democracy Honduras Nicaragua Settlement Nicaragua Costa Rica Settlement 1
2 Costa Rica Panama Settlement Panama Colombia Settlement Colombia Venezuela Settlement Colombia Ecuador Settlement Colombia Brazil Settlement Venezuela Brazil Settlement Brazil Bolivia Settlement Brazil Argentina Settlement Brazil Uruguay Settlement Bolivia Chile Settlement Bolivia Argentina Settlement Chile Argentina Joint Democracy Argentina Uruguay Settlement United Kingdom Ireland Joint Democracy Netherlands Belgium Settlement Netherlands Germany Settlement Netherlands West Germany* Settlement Belgium France Settlement Belgium Germany Settlement Belgium West Germany* Settlement France Switzerland Settlement France Spain Settlement France Germany Settlement France West Germany* Settlement France Italy Settlement Switzerland Germany Settlement Switzerland West Germany* Settlement Switzerland Austria Settlement Switzerland Italy Settlement Spain Portugal Settlement Germany Austria Settlement Germany Czechoslovakia Simultaneous Germany Czech Republic* Settlement Germany Denmark Simultaneous West Germany* Austria Settlement West Germany* Czechoslovakia Settlement West Germany* Denmark Settlement Poland Czech Republic Settlement Poland Slovakia Settlement Poland Lithuania Joint Democracy Austria Hungary Settlement Austria Czechoslovakia Simultaneous Austria Czech Republic* Settlement Austria Slovakia Settlement Austria Italy Settlement Austria Slovenia Settlement Hungary Czechoslovakia Settlement Hungary Slovakia* Settlement Hungary Slovenia Settlement Hungary Ukraine Settlement Czech Republic Slovakia Joint Democracy Italy Slovenia Settlement Macedonia Greece Settlement 2
3 Macedonia Bulgaria Settlement Greece Bulgaria Settlement Greece Turkey Settlement Cyprus Turkey N/A 1974 Joint Democracy Bulgaria Turkey Settlement Estonia Latvia Missing 1920 Unknown Latvia Lithuania Missing 1991 Unknown Finland Sweden Settlement Finland Norway Settlement Sweden Norway Settlement Namibia Botswana Settlement Notes: In this table, we include only dyads that are jointly democratic for the entire time period under consideration. *Denotes a dyad that may be considered a duplicate; these occur because of the unification of Germany and the dissolution of Czechoslovakia in the period. Adjusting the figures in Table 1 to consolidate these dyads does not change the results presented in the text. 3
4 Appendix B: Robustness of Results Part B.1. Results Using a Democracy Threshold of +5 on the Polity2 scale. This section reproduces the analyses within the main text for all tables, using +5 as the threshold for democratic states instead of +6. Our main conclusions remain unchanged. Table B.1.1. Temporal Relationship between Border Settlement and Joint Democracy in Jointly Democratic, Contiguous (Individual Presented in Appendix A) Time Period Border Settles before Joint Democracy before Total Joint Democracy Border Settlement (82.76%) 3 (10.34%) 29* (50.00%) 1 (50.00%) (92.86%) 1 (7.14%) (81.48%) 8 (9.88%) 81* Notes: Row percentages do not add to 100% because this total includes: a) simultaneous cases, in which border settlement and joint democracy appear in the same dyad-year, and b) unknown border settlement dates. We therefore omit these dyads from the analysis because we cannot tell whether joint democracy or border settlement came first in these dyads. Table B.1.1.A. Added to Appendix A by Lowering Democratic Threshold to +5. Time Period Added France-West Germany Poland-Ukraine Hungary-Ukraine Slovakia-Ukraine Moldova-Romania Moldova-Ukraine Romania-Ukraine South Africa-Namibia No additions France-West Germany Germany-Poland Poland-Czechoslovakia Poland-Ukraine Hungary-Romania Hungary-Ukraine Slovakia-Ukraine Bulgaria-Romania Moldova-Romania Moldova-Ukraine Romania-Ukraine South Africa-Namibia South Africa-Botswana India-Nepal 4
5 Table B.1.2. Border Settlement and Joint Democracy in Contiguous, Mean (in Years) Difference in Mean (t-value) Time spent as democratic dyad Before border settlement *** After border settlement 7.78 Time spent as non-democratic dyad Before border settlement *** After border settlement Obs. Notes: *** p < Contiguous dyads Table B.1.3. Timing of Border Settlement and Joint Democracy in Contiguous, At: How Many Years between Border Settlement and the First Appearance of Joint Democracy in each Dyad? 1 st Percentile th Percentile 0 25 th Percentile th Percentile (Median) th Percentile th Percentile th Percentile 265 Obs. 119 Notes: a) Positive values denote that border settlement occurs first in the dyad. b) only included in analysis if both events (i.e., border settlement and joint democracy) have occurred. c) Differences are left-censored at Table B.1.4. Border Settlement and Joint Democracy in Non-Contiguous, (count) % Total Border settlement before joint democracy 5, % Total dyads* 8,600 Dyad-Years Border settlement before joint democracy 239, % Total dyads* 351,629 *We remove from consideration dyads in which neither border settlement nor joint democracy occurred, as well as those that experienced both events at the same time. Temporal sequencing cannot be determined in these dyads. 5
6 Part B.2. Results Using First Appearance of Democracy. To obtain our results, we use the first appearance of joint democracy as a notable cut point in a dyad s history. In this section, we consider whether the results change if we instead use the first appearance of democracy (+6 or higher on the Polity2 scale) within any single dyad member as the defining event. This essentially brings mixed dyads into the analysis. As the table below shows, our main conclusions remain unchanged by this alternative research design decision. The majority of contiguous states settle their borders before democracy first appears within any single dyad member. Table B.2.1. Border Settlement and the First Appearance of Democracy in Contiguous. (count) % Total Border settlement before joint democracy % Total dyads* 260 Dyad-Years Border settlement before joint democracy 10, % Total dyads* 14,674 *We omit dyad-years/dyads in which border settlement and democracy either: (a) never appeared, or (b) appeared simultaneously. In such dyads, a temporal ordering cannot be ascertained. 6
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