3. EUROPEAN INTEGRATION (PART II)

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1 3. EUROPEAN INTEGRATION (PART II)

2 Maastricht Criteria Source:

3 Stability and Growth Pact Rule-based framework for the coordination of national fiscal policies in the economic and monetary union (EMU) Government deficit not more than 3% of GDP Government debt not more than 60% of GDP Non-compliance with the recommendations triggers further steps in the procedures, including for euro area Member States, the possibility of sanctions ( % of GDP) Reformed over time, Sixpack, Fiscal Compact.

4 General government deficit (-) and surplus (+), % of GDP geo\time EU (28 countries) -2,5-1,6-0,9-2,5-6,6-6,4-4,6-4,2-3,3-3 -2,4-1,7 Euro area (19 countries) -2,6-1,5-0,6-2,2-6,3-6,2-4,2-3,6-3 -2,6-2,1-1,5 Belgium -2,8 0,2 0,1-1,1-5,4-4 -4,1-4,2-3,1-3,1-2,5-2,5 Bulgaria 1 1,8 1,1 1,6-4,1-3,1-2 -0,3-0,4-5,5-1,6 0 Czech Republic -3-2,2-0,7-2 -5,5-4,2-2,7-3,9-1,2-1,9-0,6 0,7 Denmark ,2-2,8-2,7-2,1-3,5-1,2 1,1-1,8-0,6 Germany -3,4-1,7 0,2-0,2-3,2-4, ,1 0,3 0,6 0,8 Estonia 1,1 2,9 2,7-2,7-2,2 0,2 1,2-0,3-0,2 0,7 0,1-0,3 Ireland 1,6 2,8 0, ,8-32,1-12,7-8 -6,1-3,6-1,9-0,7 Greece -6,2-5,9-6,7-10,2-15,1-11,2-10,3-8,9-13,2-3,6-5,7 0,5 Spain 1,2 2,2 1,9-4, ,4-9,6-10, ,3-4,5 France -3,2-2,3-2,5-3,2-7,2-6,8-5,1-4,8-4,1-3,9-3,6-3,4 Croatia -3,9-3,4-2,4-2,8-6 -6,5-7,8-5,2-5,3-5,1-3,3-0,9 Italy -4,2-3,6-1,5-2,7-5,3-4,2-3,7-2,9-2,9-3 -2,6-2,5 Cyprus -2,2-1 3,2 0,9-5,4-4,7-5,7-5,6-5,1-8,8-1,2 0,5 Latvia -0,4-0,5-0,5-4,2-9,1-8,7-4,3-1,2-1 -1,2-1,2 0 Lithuania -0,3-0,3-0,8-3,1-9,1-6,9-8,9-3,1-2,6-0,6-0,2 0,3 Luxembourg 0,1 1,9 4,2 3,3-0,7-0,7 0,5 0,3 1 1,3 1,4 1,6 Hungary -7,8-9,3-5 -3,7-4,5-4,5-5,4-2,4-2,6-2,7-2 -1,9 Malta -2,6-2,5-2,1-4,2-3,2-2,4-2,4-3,5-2,4-1,8-1,1 1,1 Netherlands -0,3 0,2 0,2 0,2-5,4-5 -4,3-3,9-2,4-2,3-2,1 0,4 Austria -2,5-2,5-1,4-1,5-5,3-4,4-2,6-2,2-2 -2,7-1 -1,6 Poland -4-3,6-1,9-3,6-7,3-7,3-4,8-3,7-4,1-3,6-2,6-2,5 Portugal -6,2-4,3-3 -3,8-9,8-11,2-7,4-5,7-4,8-7,2-4,4-2 Romania -0,8-2,1-2,8-5,5-9,5-6,9-5,4-3,7-2,1-1,4-0,8-3 Slovenia -1,3-1,2-0,1-1,4-5,8-5,6-6, ,7-5,3-2,9-1,9 Slovakia -2,9-3,6-1,9-2,4-7,8-7,5-4,3-4,3-2,7-2,7-2,7-2,2 Finland 2,6 3,9 5,1 4,2-2,5-2,6-1 -2,2-2,6-3,2-2,7-1,7 Sweden 1,8 2,2 3,4 1,9-0,7 0-0,2-1 -1,4-1,6 0,2 1,1 United Kingdom -3,2-2,8-2,6-5,2-10,1-9,4-7,5-8,2-5,4-5,5-4,3-2,9 Source: Eurostat

5 General government gross debt, %GDP geo\time EU (28 countries) 61,5 60,1 57,5 60,7 72,7 78, ,7 85,6 86,5 84,5 83,2 Euro area (19 countries) 69,2 67,3 64,9 68,6 78,4 83,8 86,1 89,4 91,3 91,8 89,9 88,9 Belgium 94,7 91, ,5 99,5 99,7 102,6 104,3 105,5 106, ,7 Bulgaria 26, , ,7 15,3 15,2 16, Czech Republic 27,9 27,7 27,5 28,3 33,6 37,4 39,8 44,5 44,9 42, ,8 Denmark 37,4 31,5 27,3 33,3 40,2 42,6 46,1 44, ,5 37,7 Germany 67 66,5 63,7 65,1 72,6 80,9 78,6 79,8 77,4 74,6 70,9 68,1 Estonia 4,5 4,4 3,7 4,5 7 6,6 6,1 9,7 10,2 10,7 10 9,4 Ireland 26,1 23,6 23,9 42,4 61,5 86,1 110,3 119,6 119,4 104,5 76,9 72,8 Greece 107,4 103,6 103,1 109,4 126,7 146,2 172,1 159,6 177, ,8 180,8 Spain 42,3 38,9 35,6 39,5 52,8 60,1 69,5 85,7 95,5 100,4 99,4 99 France 67,1 64,4 64, ,9 81,6 85,2 89,6 92, ,8 96,5 Croatia 41,3 38,9 37,7 39, , ,6 81,7 85,8 85,4 82,9 Italy 101,9 102,6 99,8 102,4 112,5 115,4 116,5 123, ,8 131,5 132 Cyprus 62,8 58,7 53,5 45,1 53,8 56,3 65,7 79,7 102,6 107,5 107,5 107,1 Latvia 11,4 9,6 8 18,2 35,8 46,8 42,7 41, ,9 36,9 40,6 Lithuania 17,6 17,2 15,9 14, ,2 37,2 39,8 38,8 40,5 42,6 40,1 Luxembourg 7,4 7,8 7,7 14,9 15,7 19,8 18, ,7 22, ,8 Hungary 60 64, ,2 79,7 79,9 77, ,2 74,7 73,9 Malta 70 64,5 62,3 62,6 67,6 67,5 70,1 67,8 68,4 63,8 60,3 57,6 Netherlands 49,2 44,7 42,7 54,7 56,8 59,3 61,6 66,3 67, ,6 61,8 Austria 68, ,7 68,4 79,6 82,4 82,2 81, ,8 84,3 83,6 Poland 46,4 46,9 44,2 46,3 49,4 53,1 54,1 53,7 55,7 50,2 51,1 54,1 Portugal 67,4 69,2 68,4 71,7 83,6 96,2 111,4 126, ,6 128,8 130,1 Romania 15,7 12,3 12,7 13,2 23,2 30,2 34,4 37,3 37,8 39,4 37,9 37,6 Slovenia 26, ,8 21,8 34,6 38,4 46,6 53,8 70,4 80,3 82,6 78,5 Slovakia 34, ,1 28,5 36,3 41,2 43,7 52,2 54,7 53,5 52,3 51,8 Finland 40 38, ,7 41,7 47,1 48,5 53,9 56,5 60,2 63,6 63,1 Sweden 49, ,3 37,8 41,4 38,6 37,9 38,1 40,8 45,5 44,2 42,2 United Kingdom 39,9 40,8 41,9 49,9 64,1 75,6 81,3 84,5 85,6 87,4 88,2 88,3 Source: Eurostat

6 General Government Deficit (%GDP) 5 General Government Deficit (%GDP) EU (28 countries) Ireland Greece Spain Italy Portugal Source: Eurostat

7 General Government Gross Debt (%GDP) - PIIGS 200 General Government Gross Debt (%GDP) EU (28 countries) Ireland Greece Spain Italy Portugal Source: Eurostat

8 4. INTEGRATION IN EASTERN EUROPE

9 EU Enlargements ? Belgium, Germany, France, Italy, Luxemburg, the Netherlands Denmark, Ireland, United Kingdom Greece Spain, Portugal Austria, Finland, Sweden Czech. Rep., Estonia, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Malta, Poland, Slovenia, Slovakia Bulgaria und Romania Croatia

10 Copenhagen Criteria Economic criteria: fully functioning open market economy capable of withstanding free competition, adoption of the economic legislation, commitment to the future adoption of the euro Political criteria: stability of institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights and respect for, and protection of, minorities. Legislative criteria: adoption of the acquis communautaire

11 Road to Membership.. Three stage process (N.B. all subject to approval by all existing EU countries): 1) a country is offered the prospect of membership 2) the country becomes an official candidate for membership 3) the candidate moves on to formal membership negotiations, a process that usually involves reforms to adopt established EU law. When the negotiations and accompanying reforms have been completed to the satisfaction of both sides, the country can join the EU again, if all existing EU countries agree.

12 We must never forget that east of the Iron Curtain, people who once enjoyed a full share of European culture, freedom and identity have been cut off from their roots. We shall always look on Warsaw, Prague and Budapest as great European cities. - Margaret Thatcher, Bruges speech, September 1988

13 Eastern Enlargements (2004;2007;2013..) 1989 PHARE Programme 1993 Copenhagen European Council invitation to Central and Eastern European countries to apply to join PHARE re-oriented toward supporting accession.

14 EU Eastern Enlargement 1st May 2004: EU15 to EU25 ( EU27) 21% of the EU population (around 105 million) 7% of EU GDP Transition in labour force mobility (restrictions up to 7 years, revisions after 2 and 5 years) Only UK, Sweden and Ireland imposed no restrictions from 2004 Also Schengen Area.. e.g. RO, BG..

15 Eastern Europe Deep and historically unprecedented transformation process from planned to market economies Participation in the European integration process: economic area with highly integrated goods, services, capital and (to a lesser extent) labour markets Need to undertake significant investments in physical as well as human capital within a short period of time Changes in the economic integration pattern: substantial trade deepening and an almost complete redirection of international trade flows towards the EU Structural changes involving a shift from resource-based/low-tech exports to medium- and high-tech exports

16 Prior Integration in Eastern Europe 1991 Visegrad Group founded (Poland, Hungary, Czechoslovakia) 1994 Start of CEFTA (Central European Free Trade Agreement) Joined by Slovenia (1996), Romania (1997), Bulgaria (1999), Croatia (2003), Macedonia (2006).. all rest from 2007 Poland, Hungary, Czech Rep, Slovakia, Slovenia all leave in Romania and Bulgaria leave Croatia leaves in 2013 all to join EU

17 Support for enlargement, Autumn 2002 Source: European Commission (2009), Five years of an enlarged European Union: economic achievements and challenges

18 The EU after Enlargement Source: European Commission (2009), Five years of an enlarged European Union: economic achievements and challenges

19 Exports of goods and services (percentage of GDP) Source: Gardo, S., Martin, R. (2010), The impact of the Global Economic and Financial Crisis on Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe

20 Technological content of exports (in percentage of classified exports (covering around 90% of total exports)) Source: Gardo, S., Martin, R. (2010), The impact of the Global Economic and Financial Crisis on Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe

21 Reform agenda of the new MS Macroeconomic stabilisation Privatisation and restructuring of enterprises Improving the business environment Upgrading the performance of labour markets Objective - raising productivity growth and accelerating real convergence in order to raise living standards and improve economic and social cohesion and welfare in a sustainable manner

22 Economic Performance in the Enlarged EU Per capita GDP in the EU Source: European Commission (2009), Five years of an enlarged European Union: economic achievements and challenges

23 led to a severe deceleration of growth in 2008 in most new Member States with large imbalances. GDP growth and its main components will contract, the inputs use Table II.2.2: GDP growth and its main components Average annual percentage NM S O M S change in constant prices G DP Pr ivate consumption Public consumption Gr oss fixed capital for mation Expor ts I mpor ts Contr ibution to GDP gr owth: - domestic demand net expor ts Source: Eurostat, Commission services Source: European Commission (2009), Five years of an enlarged European Union: economic achievements and challenges The old Member States also enjoyed an In the old M driven by th sector has ga enlargement (GVA) grow (Table II.2.3 improvement industry sec Germany, for increased by 1 and by 4.1% a in 2004.

24 GDP growth and its components (GDP growth; year-on-year change; percentages; components: percentage points contribution to growth) Source: Gardo, S., Martin, R. (2010), The impact of the Global Economic and Financial Crisis on Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe

25 Sectoral contributions to growth njoyed an formation, rowth was government, growth in pported by erage GDP gement was tes. After nia among. While the increased by 1.4% annually prior to enlargement and by 4.1% after the new Member States joined in Table II.2.3: Sectoral contributions to growth NM S OM S GV A (real annual percentage change) Agriculture I ndustry (excl. constr uction) Constr uction M ar ket ser vices (excl. financial) Financial ser vices Public services Source: Eurostat, Commission services In the new Member States the acceleration in these sectors was more dramatic. The industrial sector's contribution to growth, which amounted Source: European Commission (2009), Five years of an enlarged European Union: economic achievements and challenges

26 Integration of the new MS New member states have reached a high levels of integration: huge net capital inflows before the crisis, larger than in any other emerging or developing region; most of the banking systems were bought by western European banking groups; gross external assets and liabilities have increased rapidly, though they have on average remained below levels observed in the EU15; ratio of foreign trade to GDP increased quickly and became, in general, more than in EU15 countries and other emerging/developing country regions.

27 Significant dynamic economic benefits for the old MS Benefit from the favourable cost differentials of the new Member States for industries and companies Specialization Modernisation of the social security systems Improvement of the business environment Quality of public finances

28 Significant dynamic economic benefits for the new MS Trade openness Foreign direct investment Overall improvement in the institutional framework Acceleration of productivity growth Increase in the standard of living Rapid economic transformation automotive industry in Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania ICT industries moving into Hungary and the Czech Republic

29 Quality of the exports of new MS Factor intensity Convergence of the composition of the export basket of the new MS towards the composition of the old MS and the world Fall in the share of labour-intensive goods from 28% in 1999 to 20% in 2006 Research-intensive goods: for difficult-to-imitate research-intensive goods, the share went up from 21% in 1995 to 26% in 2006; share of easy-to-imitate research- intensive goods increased from 8% to 15% Specialisation of the capital-intensive goods mainly due to the FDI-induced increased importance of the automotive sector Exports in the automotive sector more than tripled between 1999 and 2006 and account for 13.5% of total exports of goods of new Member States in 2006 (up from 6% in 1995)

30 trend to 24.3% in its in market share over a longer period is more worrying: it decreased from 27.6% in 1995 New Member States: export market share by factor 24.3% intensity Graph III.1.9: New Member States: export market share by Graph III.1.9: New Member States: export market share by 2.0 % of world factor export intensity markets (excl. EU) % of wor ld export m ark ets (excl. EU) C I LI C I LI factor intensity Goods RMI: Raw-material-intensive RM I Source: UN Comtrade 1.2 LI: Labour-intensive 1.0 RM I CI: The Capital-intensive old Member States have been losing marke DIR: share The Difficult-to-imitate old for Member all product States groups have been (Graph losing III.1.12) mark DIR 0.8 EIR research-intensive except share for all medium-high product groups technology, (Graph in III.1.12 which 0.6 DI R EIR EIR: they except Easy-to-imitate had for built medium-high up a researchintensive they had built up a very strong position with very strong technology, position in with whia market share of 29.8% in At first sight, the size market of the share loss of for 29.8% high-technology in At first goods sight, (3.1 th size of the loss for high-technology goods (3 Note: Abbreviations: see Table III.1.5 percentage points) is very worrying. However Note: Source: Abbreviations: UN Comtrade see Table III.1.5 for percentage easy-to-imitate points) is research-intensive very worrying. Howeve goods Source: UN Comtrade (Graph for easy-to-imitate III.1.9) almost half research-intensive of the loss occurred goo in (Graph III.1.9) almost half of the loss occurred At the EU-27 level, the gains of the new Member the last year of the sample, for which the data At the EU-27 level, the gains of the new Member the last year of the sample, for which the da Source: European Commission (2009), Five years of an enlarged European Union: economic achievements and challenges RM I (r hs) C I EIR C I LI EI R LI Note: Abbreviations: see 98Table 99 III Source: UN Comtrade Note: Abbreviations: see Table III.1.5

31 Quality of the exports of new MS Technology intensity Reduction of the share of low-technology Low-technology share remains above 30% in Bulgaria, the Baltic States and Romania, and stands at 26% in Poland Medium-high technology now accounts for 42% in the new MS New MS have almost caught up with the old MS in the area of high technology (14% and 16% respectively) Almost all exports of high-technology industries from the new MS are from the ICT sector

32 do not make up may not yet be stable. r the States, new although Member ion do not (see make up New above). may not yet be stable. Member States: export market r States, share although technology intensity ifficult-to-imitate by technology ion ough (see small above). (0.3 % of world technology export markets intensity (excl. EU) ause ifficult-to-imitate for concern. 2.0 ough small (0.3 er States, the loss % of wor l d expor t m ar k ets (excl. EU) ause for concern. 2.0 M LT able since 1995 LTI er States, the loss 1.5 M LT 2006). able since ). by technology tween by technology 1999 and tween s gained 1999 market and s point gained for the market two.5 point of a for percentage the two.5 ories. of a While percentage this ories. for the While key highenotes for the key a slight high- this enotes in market a share. slight in 1995, market the share..9% in 1995, in the share The.9% tates in for the other The tates ificantly for the higher other (Graph III.1.9) almost half of the loss occurred in the last year of the sample, for which the data Graph III.1.11: New Member States: export market share by Graph III.1.11: New Member States: export market share by LTI MH T M H T IC T 0.0 I C T Note: Abbreviations: see Table III Note: Source: Abbreviations: UN Comtrade see Table III.1.6 Source: UN Comtrade Nevertheless, the market share for hightechnology goods the is only market about share half of for the high- share Nevertheless, technology of medium-high goods technology is only about goods. half Again of the at share the Source: European Commission (2009), Five years of an enlarged European Union: economic achievements and challenges H T H T Industries Low-technology (LTI) Medium-low-technology(MLT) Medium-high-technology (MHT) High-technology (HT) ICT (part of HT)

33 Employment in high-tech manufacturing and knowledge-intensive high-technology services Source: European Commission (2009), Five years of an enlarged European Union: economic achievements and challenges

34 do not make up may not yet be stable. r States, although ion (see Exports above). of high technology products technology intensity ifficult-to-imitate ough small (0.3 % of world export markets (excl. EU) ause for concern. 2.0 er States, the loss M LT able since 1995 LTI ). Graph III.1.11: New Member States: export market share by by technology tween 1999 and s gained market point for the two.5 of a percentage ories. While this for the key highenotes a slight in market share. in 1995, the share.9% in The tates for the other ificantly higher MH T IC T Note: Abbreviations: see Table III.1.6 Source: UN Comtrade Nevertheless, the market share for hightechnology goods is only about half of the share of medium-high technology goods. Again at the Source: European Commission (2009), Five years of an enlarged European Union: economic achievements and challenges H T

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