INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL TRENDS & FORECAST

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1 INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL TRENDS & FORECAST DAN MISHELL Director of Research Visit California

2 GLOBAL TRAVEL TRENDS

3 UNWTO 2030 FORECAST GLOBAL TOURISM 1 Billion arrivals in million new travelers per year to reach 1.8 billion arrivals by 2030 ARRIVALS GROWTH BY YEAR Source: UNWTO

4 UNWTO 2030 FORECAST GLOBAL OUTBOUND OUTBOUND GROWTH Growth driven by Eastern Europe Source: UNWTO

5 RISE OF THE MIDDLE CLASS New "Middle-Class" Households millions China 75 mn India 9 mn Indonesia 7 mn Malaysia 2 mn Thailand 1 mn Source: Tourism Economics

6 UNWTO 2030 FORECAST GLOBAL INBOUND SHARE

7 U.S. TRAVEL TRENDS

8 U.S. TOP MARKETS, 2012 Average spend per trip Domestic $360 International $1,880 Volume Spending (millions) (billions of $) 1. Canada $ Mexico $ United Kingdom 3.76 $ Japan 3.70 $ Germany 1.88 $ Brazil 1.79 $ China 1.47 $ France 1.46 $ South Korea 1.25 $ Australia 1.12 $ Italy 0.83 $ India 0.72 $3.37 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; StatCan; CIC Research, Inc.

9 U.S. INTERNATIONAL MARKET TRENDS, Record Travel 67 million international 29.8 million overseas $126 billion international spending 35,000,000 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 International Visitation to the U.S., Canada Overseas Mexico Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; CIC Research, Inc.

10 U.S. MARKET TRENDS European Travel to the U.S., ,000,000 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 - U.K. Germany France Italy Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; CIC Research, Inc.

11 U.S. MARKET TRENDS Asia Pacific Travel to U.S., ,000,000 6,000,000 2,500,000 5,000,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 RH axis 4,000,000 3,000,000 Australia S. Korea 1,000,000 LH axis 2,000,000 Japan 500,000 1,000, Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; CIC Research, Inc.

12 U.S. MARKET TRENDS Emerging Markets Travel to U.S., ,000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , ,000 - Brazil China (PRC) India Russia Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; CIC Research, Inc.

13 FORECASTED ARRIVALS TO U.S. SLOWING GROWTH International Overseas % 6.7% 3.4% 5.8% 4.0% 5.3% * 2014* *Forecasts as of October 2013 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Travel and Tourism Industries

14 FORECASTS FOR KEY INBOUND MARKETS TO U.S., 2018/ Countries in order of projected arrivals to U.S. in 2018 Percent Change 2018/ Canada Mexico China UK Japan Brazil German y Korea France Australi a Arrivals Total *Forecasts as of October 2013 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Travel and Tourism Industries

15 POTENTIAL FOR INTERNATIONAL TRAVELER SPENDING US Visitor Spending Compared 2006= International Traveler Spend Domestic Traveler Spend Source: Tourism Economics

16 CALIFORNIA AND SAN FRANCISCO TRENDS

17 CALIFORNIA DOMESTIC VS. INTERNATIONAL (2012) 230 million person-trips $106.4 billion in spending 6% 19% 94% 81% Source: DK Shifflet & Associates, U.S. Department of Commerce, CIC Research Inc., Dean Runyan Associates

18 TOP MARKETS 2012 CALIFORNIA VS. U.S. U.S. California Share of U.S. Canada Mexico 48.1% Mexico Canada 6.8% UK China (PRC) 45.5% Japan UK 16.9% Germany Australia 46.5% Brazil Japan 15.1% China (PRC) Germany 21.3% France S. Korea 31.0% S. Korea France 25.6% Australia Brazil 11.0% Italy India 25.0% India Italy 19.7% Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; StatCan; CIC Research, Inc.

19 CALIFORNIA TOP MARKETS SPEND PER TRIP Mexico Air Canada China UK Japan Australia Germany S. Korea France Brazil India Italy California Avg. Spend/Trip Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; StatCan; CIC Research, Inc.; Tourism Economics

20 INTERNATIONAL VISITATION TO CALIFORNIA 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 0 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; CIC Research, Inc.; BEA; Tourism Economics

21 INTERNATIONAL VISITATION TO CALIFORNIA 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 0 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; CIC Research, Inc.; BEA; Tourism Economics

22 CHINESE VISITORS TO U.S. AND CALIFORNIA, U.S. 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , ,000 0 Chinese Travelers to the U.S. and California 800, , , , , , , ,000 - California US CA Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; CIC Research, Inc.

23 BRAZIL AND INDIA VISITORS CALIFORNIA, % 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% California's Brazil and India Visitors and Share of U.S. Travel 300, , , , ,000 50,000 0 India Brazil India US Share Brazil US Share Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; CIC Research, Inc.

24 TOP OVERSEAS MARKETS 2012 SF VS. CA California San Francisco Share of CA China (PRC) U.K. 51.5% UK China (PRC) 36.5% Australia Germany 60.2% Japan France 61.4% Germany Australia 42.3% S. Korea S. Korea 43.6% France Japan 25.8% Brazil Italy 55.5% India India 43.6% Italy Netherlands 64.5% Taiwan Brazil 38.1% Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; StatCan; CIC Research, Inc.

25 TOP 5 MOTIVATING ATTRACTIONS ü Brand Mature Growth US CA UK AU JP FR DE KR MX CN BR San Francisco ü ü ü ü ü ü ü ü ü Disneyland ü ü ü ü ü ü ü ü Hollywood ü ü ü ü ü ü ü Los Angeles ü ü ü ü ü ü ü Beaches ü ü ü ü ü ü Yosemite/Half Dome ü ü ü ü ü Napa Valley/Wineries ü ü ü Universal Studios Hollywood ü ü California Redwoods ü ü ü ü = Ranked Top 5 = Tie Blue = Northern CA Green = Southern CA Highway 1/California Coastline Golden Gate Bridge ü ü Death Valley/Deserts ü ü San Diego ü Beverly Hills ü Source: Hall & Partners

26 CALIFORNIA AIR SERVICE (AUGUST 2013) 160, , ,000 Overseas Non-Stop Seats to California, August ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 Other LAX SFO 20,000 0 Source: OAG

27 CALIFORNIA OCTOBER TRAVEL FORECAST INTERNATIONAL CA International Inbound Travel Annual % change 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% US California -8% -10% F 14F 15F 16F Source: Tourism Economics

28 CALIFORNIA OCTOBER TRAVEL FORECAST INTERNATIONAL Projected international leisure visits by market Average annual growth, China India South America South Korea Japan Australia Germany Canada Mexico United Kingdom France Scandanavia Source: Tourism Economics

29 CALIFORNIA OCTOBER TRAVEL FORECAST SPENDING Expenditures Will Outpace Visitors Index, 2007 = Domestic International Solid lines = visitors Dashed lines = expenditures F 14F 15F 16F Source: Tourism Economics

30 VISIT CALIFORNIA OCTOBER FORECAST industry.visitcalifornia.com/research DAN MISHELL Director of Research Visit California