Dilema de Crescimento na America Latina

Transcription

1 Dilema de Crescimento na America Latina Thomas J. Trebat Diretor executivo Centro de Estudos Brasileiros Universidade Columbia Juy 7,

2 Bons Tempos: Crescimento na America Latina Juy 7,

3 Perspectivas futuras são moderadas Juy 7,

4 O Dilema de Crescimento Stylized facts about growth in Latin America The covariates of growth: economic fundamentals And how does Latin America compare to the rest of the world? What should be done about the growth? Augmented Washington Consensus: do more reforms! Second-generation reforms The Washington Consensus was wrong! The Washington Consensus was irrelevant Institutions need to be reformed, not policies Juy 7,

5 Juy 7,

6 Crescimento mediocre nos ultimos 25 anos GDP growth Weigthed average Simple average Ocampo Juy 7,

7 Quase todos os paises cresceram menos nos ultimos 25 anos do que em epocas anteriores Annual average GDP growth % 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% Uruguay Bolivia Chile Argentina Except Chile! Peru El Salvador Guatemala Nicaragua Honduras Colombia Paraguay Venezuela Dominican Republic Costa Rica Panama Mexico Ecuador Brazil 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% Ocampo Juy 7,

8 O Caso do Brasil Juy 7,

9 As reformas neoliberais foram eficazes? Reforms Relative Income Juy 7,

10 Um problema comum a todos: produtividade muita baixa Per worker GDP growth (1.0) (2.0) Very low rates! (3.0) Weighted average Simple average Ocampo Juy 7,

11 Só o Chile cresceu! Renda caiu muito na Venezuela! AMLO Chavez Bachelet Garcia Juy 7,

12 Volatilidade no Cono Sul Reforms begin Disaster strikes Juy 7,

13 Lições vindas do Chile? Juy 7,

14 O caso do Brasil Lula II Morales Correa? Juy 7,

15 Success? Juy 7,

16 Periodos de Expansão Económica Tem Sido Curtos Demais Juy 7,

17 America Latina tem perdido (muito) terreno na corrida global Latin America/World Then Iner-regional disparities Latin America/United States Now Latina America/World Maddison Latin America/US Maddison LA/W World Bank LA/US World Bank Juy 7,

18 Nos ultimos dez anos, muitos dos paises emergentes tem crescido Developing countries Latin America Ocampo Juy 7,

19 e A.L. segue sendo a lanterninha Juy 7,

20 Resumindo os pontos principais: fatos estereotipados- I Slow GDP growth driven by slow TFP growth Within Latin America, cross-country differences in growth are important Latin American growth has underperformed the rest of the world Juy 7,

21 Resumo II Business cycles in Latin America are more volatile and more protracted Volatility (large swings) and persistence (long cycles) Output collapses more frequent in Latin America (and Africa) Growth spells shorter-lived in Latin America Juy 7,

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23 Os fundamentos: explicam ou não o crescimento? Fundamentals are the deep determinants of growth Political, social, and economic variables thought to influence growth Do good fundamentals lead to growth, or is it the other way around? How does Latin America compare to the rest of the world? Juy 7,

24 FUNDAMENTOS MACRO: MELHORES OU PIORES NA AMERICA LATINA? Juy 7,

25 Despesas com consumo do governo ja são altas e... Juy 7,

26 Despesas primárias tendem a crescer Juy 7,

27 E o investimento público encolhe Juy 7,

28 Divida pública elevada na maioria... Juy 7,

29 INSTITUIÇÕES: MELHORES OU PIORES NA AMERICA LATINA? Juy 7,

30 TIPOS DE INSTITUIÇÕES Democracy Legal structures and property rights Corruption Quality of the government bureaucracy How does Latin America compare? Answer: not too badly! Juy 7,

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32 Renda e qualidade do funcionalismo publico Juy 7,

33 Qualidade da máquina burocrática Juy 7,

34 Eficácia da burocracia Juy 7,

35 CONDIÇÕES SOCIAIS: MELHORES OU PIORES NA AMÉRICA LATINA? Juy 7,

36 INDICADORES SOCIAIS Education Inequality Health How does Latin America compare? Much more inequality than other regions How might inequality affect growth? Educational levels poorer Yet social spending strong (Ocampo) Juy 7,

37 Educação: baixo rendimento em matemática Juy 7,

38 Desigualdade na região: visão comparativa Juy 7,

39 E niveis de desigualdade são elevados em quase todos os paises LATIN AMERICA: HOUSEHOLD SHARE IN TOTAL INCOME BY INCOME QUINTILE, Richer Q. / Poorer Q Uruguay a/ México Ecuador a/ Argentina a/ Guatemala Chile Venezuela Costa Rica Peru El Salvador Paraguay Honduras Nicaragua Colombia a/ Panama Dominican R Brazil Bolivia Quintile Poorer quintile Richer quintile Richer Q. / Poorer Q. Ocampo Juy 7,

40 O esforço da região na area social tem sido notavel. (Gasto social como percentagem do PIB) 16 Education Health Social Security Housing Juy 7,

41 ..Em quase todos os paises latinos Social expenditure as a percentage of GDP , and (Percentages) Social expenditure as a percentage of GDP Juy 7,

42 Taxas de pobreza na região: melhoras recentes Juy 7,

43 Gasto social e desigualdade Juy 7,

44 Fundamentos: Outros Aspetos Importantes Openness and trade Latin America far less open than other regions Evidence from the Brazil case? Financial crises Much more frequent than in other regions Vulnerability to terms of trades shocks. And to sudden stops in capital inflows Juy 7,

45 Abertura comercial: o caso do Brasil % GDP Malaysia S.Korea Chile Thailand Indonesia S.Africa Russia Mexico Brazil Juy 7,

46 Estrutura das exportações Juy 7,

47 America Latina e as altas e baixas dos commodities COMMODITY PRICES 2000= ALL FOOD AGRICULTURAL RAW MATERIALS MINERALS, ORES AND METALS Ocampo Juy 7,

48 E o vai e vem dos fluxos de capitas externos Russian Crisis Lula wins! 10 Africa Latin America 5 0 Asia 98-Jan 98-Apr 98-Jul 98-Oct 99-Jan 99-Apr 99-Jul 99-Oct 00-Jan 00-Apr 00-Jul 00-Oct 01-Jan 01-Apr 01-Jul 01-Oct 02-Jan 02-Apr 02-Jul 02-Oct 03-Jan 03-Apr 03-Jul 03-Oct 04-Jan 04-Apr 04-Jul 04-Oct 05-Jan 05-Apr 05-Jul 05-Oct 06-Jan Juy 7,

49 Risco Pais: America Latina contra Asia Juy 7,

50 Uma região ainda vulnerável Juy 7,

51 Spreads bancários domesticos elevados Juy 7,

52 Concluindo: o que fazer para acelerar o Reform more! crescimento da região? Reforms went too far government needs to be reintroduced! Reforms were irrelevant fundamental constraints must be removed!! Juy 7,

53 Mais reformas neoliberais Adiantam sim ou não? Industry level studies after reforms Privatization, openness correlated with productivity Flaws in the evidence: Level vs. growth effects Economy-wide implications? Cross-country regressions: Reforms good for growth in Latin America! (2.5-3% per annum in GDP) Flaws in the evidence: Half-full vs. half-empty: most gains due to stabilization, not to reforms Reforms are not the same as fundamentals Information drawn from too large a sample how fix the problems in this country? Juy 7,

54 Reformas neoliberais foram excessivas e mau pensadas! Growth performance did not improve after reforms Unintended side effects (e.g., fiscal costs of pension reform, loss of employment) were more serious Flaws in the evidence: Conflates 1980s and 1990s (Ocampo chart) Exaggerates the accomplishments of the 1960s and 1970s(JZ) Non-reformers (Venezuela, Argentina) are growing: Role of government, in particular, not well appreciated Infrastructure needed for economic growth Extra credit reading: IMF 2005, Bolivia: Ex-Post Assessment of Long-term Program Engagement, Country Report 05/139 Also, see other ex-post assessments Juy 7,

55 Reformas foram irrelevantes Reforms did not remove the fundamental constraints. A search for the Holy Grail Reforms led to a growth spurt, but not to sustained growth Institutions matter! Property rights, competition and incentives for innovation and productivity growth, quality government services and policies See IADB 2006 report on policymaking Human capital and education matter Plus other factors as well: Geography Income distribution Social cohesion Juy 7,

56 Conclusões e Debate Latin America does suffer from a number of common problems: Lack of savings Poorly functioning labor markets Lack of openness Lots of inequality At the same time: more country-specific and reform-specific analysis is needed One size does not fit all. Country problems are NOT all the same If fundamentals really matter: Can institutions be reformed, and how? And where do you begin? Juy 7,

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