BULGARIA: BEYOND THE FACTS

Transcription

1 26 BULGARIA: BEYOND THE FACTS December 2007, Issue 26 SPECIAL EDITION The views in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the United Nations Development Programme. Copyright UNDP.

2 EDITORIAL SUBSCRIPTION A WORD TO OUR READERS In 2007 three new issues of Bulgaria: Beyond the Facts will be available. To subscribe for them and also to gain access to the latest data from the specialized sociological surveys and the Early Warning System archive, you may complete this form and return with your payment to the address below. Or, subscribe online at: SUBSCRIPTION FOR 2007 Printed Оn-line Full Type edition* edition** subscription*** Price BGN 20 BGN 15 BGN 35 All prices are in BGN, VAT included. * 3 issues ** 3 issues and full access to the archives. *** printed version, online version, full access to the archives and full access to the indicators database. Mr/ Mrs/ Ms Name Company/ Institution Address City & Postal Code Country Phone PERSONAL DETAILS PAYMENT Bulgarian leva Account: Bank code: Raiffeisen BANK 18/20 Gogol Str., 1504 Sofia UNDP Bulgaria (Subscription EWR) USD Account: USD Bank code: Raiffeisen BANK 18/20 Gogol Str., 1504 Sofia UNDP Bulgaria (Subscription EWR) Payment order enclosed, to UNDP Bulgaria, subscription for Bulgaria: Beyond the Facts (local currency only accepted or its equivalent in USD) If you need an invoice, please fill in the data bellow: Company name: Person in charge: Bulstat: Tax N: Address: TO ORDER NOW: Contact us at earlywarning@undp.bg Post it to our Subscription Center at: BBSS Gallup International, 23, James Boucher Blvd, Sofia 1164, Bulgaria (Subscription EWR). Or, subscribe online at: Bulgaria: Beyond the Facts inherited the early warning system in this country which has been serving, for 9 years between 1997 and 2006 as framework for the early warning reports comprising expert analysis and forecasts of risks related to Bulgaria s political, economic and social development. With a new project in 2007, the United NationsDevelopment Programme initiated, in partnership with BBSS Gallup International, a series of special sociological surveys and expert research to be published in the topical issues of Bulgaria: Beyond the Facts. The latter treated specific issues and presented analytical evaluations of the perspectives and challenges before the progress of individual Bulgarian citizens during the country s first year as member of the European Union. Each of the surveys was broadly publicized, discussed with experts, media, representatives of government institutions and the academia, and then get published in a special edition of Bulgaria: Beyond the Facts. The current issue of Bulgaria: Beyond the Facts seeks the answers to the question, whether Bulgaria will become depopulated because of the increasing emigration wave among the youth, what are their ways chosen and if their ways are set with more obstacles and challenges in comparson with their coeval abroad. The recently updated website and portal will continue to support and ensure access to the unique, all-encompassing database of sociological surveys carried out in the period within the early-warning reporting system. The archive includes data from official statistical sources, arranged under 180 indices of the political, economic and social environment in this country throughout the last decade. In the future UNDP Bulgaria jointly with national and international partners will present under its brand Bulgaria: Beyond the Facts ad-hoc analyses and special publications on topics related to the national development agenda. 2 BULGARIA: BEYOND THE FACTS December 2007

3 CONTENTS COVER COVER STORY 4 THE YOUTH OF BULGARIA ARE OPTIMISTIC FOR THE FUTURE. LET S US TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE GOOD NEWS Thoughts for the Future MORE ON THE TOPIC 7 THE NEW EUROPEAN GENERATION 13 THE YOUNG PEOPLE IN BULGARIA AND THE ECONOMICAL COMPETITION POWER BRIEF PRESENTATION OF THE SURVEY THE YOUNG PEOPLE 14 IN BULGARIA AND THE ECONOMICAL COMPETITION POWER THE YOUNG PEOPLE IN BULGARIA: THE PRAGMATISM 16 AND THE OPTIMISM OF ONE NEW GENERATIONЕ General profile of the young people in Bulgaria: 16 THE ADMISSION FOR MASS YOUTH POVERTY IS STRONGLY EXAGGERATED General adjustments and life strategies of the youth: 20 OPTIMISM AND WILL FOR EARLY INDEPENDENCE Economic adjustments: 22 PRAGMATISM AND LIBERAL VALUES Education and youth: 25 THE UNIVERSITY EDUCATION IS A VALUE BUT IT DOES NOT OFFER ENOUGH REALISTIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR FAST PENETRATION ON THE LABOR MARKET BULGARIA: BEYOND THE FACTS Issue 26 Desember 2007 Published in conjunction with UNDP and Foundation Gallup International Institute Adjustments for emigration: 27 LOW INTENTIONS FOR PERMANENT LEAVE OF THE COUNTRY, RELATIVELY STRONG WISH FOR WORK MOBILITY WITHIN THE FRAMES OF EU Political adjustments and civic activity among youth: 28 SKEPTIC, BUT NOT PASSIVE CITIZENS IN CONCLUSION: WHAT COMES OUT FROM ALL THAT? 30 BULGARIA: BEYOND THE FACTS December

4 COVER STORY THE YOUTH OF BULGARIA ARE OPTIMISTIC FOR THE FUTURE. LET S US TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE GOOD NEWS Henry Jackelen UNDP Resident Representative I am very pleased to lend my comments to this edition of Bulgaria: Beyond the Facts as one of my first published comments since arriving in Bulgaria as RC/RR. I cannot think of a more important and central issue to the future of Bulgaria than its youth. Having arrived only one month ago I found this particular edition of Bulgaria: Beyond Facts to be remarkably instructive and edifying as to the challenges and prospects of this society. There is nothing more precious in any society than its youth. It is the symbol of hope and strength and continuity. In a society such as Bulgaria s, where youth are a diminishing factor of total population, I cannot imagine that this universal reality is nothing but more evident. But how does this special group view its society? Here I am very pleased to share the key and central result of this complex study: the youth of Bulgaria are optimistic for the future and see their future within the country. Many would ve guessed that with accession 4 BULGARIA: BEYOND THE FACTS December 2007

5 COVER STORY to the EU the opposite would be the case and that the youth would see their opportunities more outside then inside. These perceptions are a powerful asset that can be built on provided reforms, strategies, policies and investments are made to upgrade educational opportunities (at all levels but particularly in the tertiary and vocational sectors). With the high economic growth the country is benefiting from, it is critical that this current and future workforce be prepared for the realities of a dynamic 21st century. Of equal importance, in terms of findings, is that this new generation does not see overt protest as the natural expression of discontent and believes in the shared responsibility of all sectors of society in facing challenges. As such they are more likely to be involved in volunteer efforts and participate in active civil society endeavors. Let us take advantage of this good news and BULGARIA: BEYOND THE FACTS December

6 COVER STORY celebrate the role and potential of the youth in this country. Let us involve them more in all aspects of public life finding better ways for them to participate in the burning issues, such as education reform, better ways to be involved in all levels of debate. Let us also take care to understand that this precious asset also is at risk in troubling data concerning teenage pregnancy, unsafe sexual behavior, high drop out rates from the educational system and several others. Just as the survey reveals that youth consider problems to be a matter of joint responsibility let the older majority be more responsible in finding ways to better preserve this key asset for the future of society. 23 November BULGARIA: BEYOND THE FACTS December 2007

7 THE NEW EUROPEAN GENERATION MORE ON THE TOPIC The survey of the attitudes of the young people in Bulgaria that BBSS Gallup conducted for an UNDP project is important in several aspects. First of all because it enables the determination of the change in perceptions of the generations, which happened in the period of the postcommunist transition. This change seems logical and can be spotted in any radical public transformation like the transition from the regime of the state communism and planned economy to the regime of representative democracy and the market economy. Antonii Todorov Political Scientist, Associate professor NBU with it the well paid job, the high incomes, the market diversity take a large share in the value system of this new generation. In such surveys this is not a new conclusion as the postcommunist transition, defined as transition to democracy and market economy included as one of its basic dimensions the recreation of the functioning market with its main characteristics: competition between the producers for the potential buyer, diversity of choice, simultaneous access to Bulgarian and international goods and services. This market was opposed to The survey however enables also the rejection of one ruling conception, according to which the new postcommunist generation will certainly and totally reject a combination of social solidarity values, which usually in Bulgaria were associated with the communist era. Competition Power and Social Solidarity The survey shows that youth even in much bigger degree than the older people perceive the market economy as a value. Along BULGARIA: BEYOND THE FACTS December

8 MORE ON THE TOPIC the economy of deficit and the difficult access to goods and services, which for the older generations were marks of the communism. However the young generation, the people between 15 and 30 years old, in were either not born yet or were children younger than 12 years. For them the market economy is reality status quo and the previous situation is completely unknown to them except from the stories told by their parents. For this reason despite the high value meaning of the market and its characteristics, for the youth in Bulgaria it is not a worldly or political cause, but the usual reality. In the beginning of the postcommunist transition the market values visibly and logically were shared by the most active social circles, among which the youth as well. For this reason the research-workers and the observers shared opinion that in general the youth tend in much bigger extend than the older people to apprehend the competition on the market as a foundation for the competition in society, the individual success at any price and without having any special inhibitions as a general behavior pattern and aiming high incomes without caring much at what cost does it happen. The pragmatism escalating to unscrupulousness was perceived as a main value for the youth as a whole. The 2007 survey especially if compared to other surveys of the values of the generations shows that this synonymous picture needs serious corrections. At first place because the youth today turns out to be not in such a large extent under the influence of the ruling until recently nonliberal conceptions for the economy and the society. The individual success if based on social egoism is far from being the common concept of the Bulgarian youth today. Contrariwise the feeling of solidarity with the others, the will for 8 BULGARIA: BEYOND THE FACTS December 2007

9 MORE ON THE TOPIC cooperation with friends and partners, search of support from friends and family in the professional circle and in general in the society are important values and elements of one more diverse comprehension of the competition and the competition power. Sociability does not contradict the competition power, following of common standards and sharing of common interests is not unusual for the postcommunist generation. Namely because it is not burdened with the inheritance of the communist values after the end of the transition this new generation does not feel restricted or repelled by values, which the others, due to the history, connect with the communist era. In Bulgaria or Abroad Still in the very beginning of the postcommunist transition the active generations in Bulgaria were taken over by the wish to travel abroad one value in the communist era, when this was a privilege for a few and especially difficult adventure. In the first years after 1989 many Bulgarians among whom quite many young people (according to some evaluations over people total) left the county in searching of better life, connected mostly with better paid job. The latter was a leading value for which many Bulgarians agreed to loose their social status from the time of the communism in Bulgaria in order to receive higher remuneration even for lowqualified labor in Western Europe or North America. During the last 6-7 years this impulse for an indispensable realization on the labor market abroad has decreased significantly. In general the survey has found one indisputable novelty for the youth the value of Bulgaria as place for living and realization, as well as for education has grown significantly. There are different reasons for this and we cannot understand them if we continue thinking that the main value of the young BULGARIA: BEYOND THE FACTS December

10 MORE ON THE TOPIC generation remains the individual realization at any cost, comprehended mainly as finding a wellpaid job. In this sense the horizon of expectations of the Bulgarian youth today is broader. On one hand they are connected to the first results of the postcommunist transition the political stability in Bulgaria, the growing optimistic economical expectations, the stabilization and slow increase of the incomes in general, the possibilities for finding in Bulgaria now a well-paid job in a foreign or Bulgarian company. On the other hand the possibility for relatively free and accessible travel in the European Union, in USA and Canada, turns the stay abroad from a luxury into trivia for a growing number of active young people. For the students these are the incomparable to the past opportunities for students exchange in the Erasmus program and the possibilities for students summer jobs (simultaneously profitable, socializing and cultural) in Western Europe and USA. The gained experience abroad that was wildly shared with friends and colleagues after the return in Bulgaria allowed the 10 BULGARIA: BEYOND THE FACTS December 2007

11 MORE ON THE TOPIC youth to create a realistic idea about the West, which despite its attractiveness, is not an unachievable dream anymore. In third place the globalization the processes of which have lead to the rise of one worldwide mass lifestyle that includes consumers behavior and cultural models unexpectedly pointed as important the questions about identity and distinguishing from the others. Paradoxically this has made the youth to feel a new interest to the Bulgarian, to its signs, to Bulgaria in general. For the new generation Bulgaria is now one of the many, but still preferred place for education and realization. Another position The survey allows changing another ruling comprehension of the values of the young Bulgarians the conviction that in general they are not interested in politics and that they consider politics to be uninteresting and unnecessary pursuit Paradoxically the wave of politicization in Bulgaria in the beginning of the transition (a phenomenon in the other countries from Central and Eastern Europe too) was followed by fast withdrawal of the citizens from political participation and concentration onto their private lives. This could be seen clearly from the level of participation in the democratic elections from average 75-80% in today it is 45-55%. The youth s withdrawal form political participation is the most visible. The 2007 survey at first glance confirms the above made conclusion as it shows relatively low interest of the youth in politics. The question however is that this declared low interest in politics goes along with quite clear political orientations. Therefore if today we continue finding that the youth distinguish itself from politics it is connected most of all with rejection of the leading political style and not with the politics in general. The youth rejects politics that is based on the division of knowing elite and regular citizens, which turns the political pursuit into political profession and the political profession into a BULGARIA: BEYOND THE FACTS December

12 MORE ON THE TOPIC private business. The survey shows that the youth actually has high political expectations as well as they comprehend politics as solidarity action. This indisputably should change the existing comprehension for the distance between youth and politics. Outside of the survey the observation of the political life in the past few years shows a new type of political mobilizations of the youth, an example of which are the new movements for protection of the environment or the mobilizations of the young scientists and teachers. The youth have considerable reservations to the political class of today and mostly to the political parties of today and they engage with their activity weakly. They prefer the non-party politics but do not reject politics in general. Just the contrary! And this is the optimistic side of this survey the youth expects form politics to perform its main functions: to take care of the social integration, of the common lifestyle, of the cooperation of the individuals. Of course, speaking of the youth in general we should not forget to what extend they are differentiated and stratified. The average data cannot hide the extreme differences in the social status, in personal perspectives, in social and political expectations and in shared values of the different groups of young people. The group of the social marginals among youth and especially among Roma, whose expectations are far from being optimistic, is growing. These are young people, who most likely have rarely gone to school, do not have any profession and most often are unemployed. But as they already are in the age that they should be working, this makes them an extremely serious social-political problem. Probably in this aspect now and in the future there will be an open space for priority public policies how to socialize and integrate these young people, how to help them to achieve equal chances in life. 12 BULGARIA: BEYOND THE FACTS December 2007

13 BULGARIA: BEYOND THE FACTS THE YOUNG PEOPLE IN BULGARIA AND THE ECONOMICAL COMPETITION POWER

14 BRIEF PRESENTATION OF THE SURVEY THE YOUNG PEOPLE IN BULGARIA AND THE ECONOMICAL COMPETITION POWER Frames of the survey National sociological survey 1000 personal interviews with citizens of Republic of Bulgaria, age The sample is representative for the population aged on the territory of the entire country with the following indications: Gender Age groups Ethnicity Education Region Type of settlement/ Capital (District center/ Town/ Village The sample is representative for the population aged on the territory of the entire country with the following indications: 14 BULGARIA: BEYOND THE FACTS December 2007

15 Time of performance September-October 2007 Used criteria for social stratification of the conducted survey 1 : Factological Income/expenditure levels Educational status/ qualification Possessions Levels of consumption of basic goods and services Psychological Self-assessment of interviewed for their social status Comparability of the used approach and results: BBSS Gallup International sociological surveys from 1993 Standard demographic classification of Eurobarometer The Middle Class and the Risks of the European Integration of Bulgaria sociological survey of Bulgaria: Beyond the Facts from May Developed and used from Bulgaria Beyond the Facts in sociological survey from May 2007 Middle Class and the Risks of the European Integration of Bulgaria BULGARIA: BEYOND THE FACTS December

16 THE YOUNG PEOPLE IN BULGARIA: THE PRAGMATISM AND THE OPTIMISM OF ONE NEW GENERATIONЕ 2 The years old now in Bulgaria have the features of one indeed new, posttransitional generation. The majority of them do not feel the need to be patronized by their parents or by the state and actually seek the possibilities for their financial independence. Their ambitions for personal development are really high, but pragmatic enough. The EU membership of Bulgaria is comprehended as a source of serious opportunities, but not as a source of risks. Including for labor or educational mobility outside of the Bulgarian boarders, but without strong illusions for emigration. The young Bulgarians prefer to try to be competitive in their own country. GENERAL PROFILE OF THE YOUNG PEOPLE IN BULGARIA: THE ADMISSION FOR MASS YOUTH POVERTY IS STRONGLY EXAGGERATED Traditionally the young people in Bulgaria are comprehended and spoken of as one especially vulnerable social group, when looking from the point of the division of earnings and the public wealth. At first glance there is nothing unnatural about it. It seems obvious that those, who have not realized themselves professionally yet the age group 15 to 30 years old to be more vulnerable than the other social stratum. Consequently they need more specialized policies of the public authority. This notion in Bulgaria however is strongly exaggerated. In the media and public debate the youth is usually described not just as a vulnerable, but frankly as living in poverty social group that is helpless to improve its material and social quality of life. From here originates the serious public pressure for not simply supporting, but even for patronizing specialized state policies for the youth. There are two main reasons for it: the peculiarities of the socialistic economy that was ruling the country for 45 years and the following transition to modern democracy and market economy. The socialism with its state economy indeed allotted the youth the role of people with lower earnings, totally patronized by the state and their parents. It was simply no possible no matter what their skills and qualification were for them to support themselves, to develop or even to live separately 3, when they reach full age or after graduation from university. The following years of transition starting in 1990 until now went along with a collapse of the life standard, that caused 2 Author: BBSS Gallup International, Bulgaria team. 3 The salaries were regulated by the state and depended more on the age/ the years of accumulated work experience in the given state enterprise than on the personal contribution, qualification and skills; the purchase of a house and a car were state regulated; as well as the access to university or professional education and finding a job afterwards. 16 BULGARIA: BEYOND THE FACTS December 2007

17 Graphic 1 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% high levels of personal and family insecurity 4. Not until Bulgaria did enter a period of economical growth. Then the country started forming a new middle class in terms of earnings and life strategies connected to the developing private sector in the economy. Therefor one of the most important questions that our sociological survey had to answer was where in fact do the youth in Bulgaria stay now in the Results Source: Survey of the social and economic contrasts after Bulgaria s accession to EU (a survey of the middle class), BBSS Gallup International, 2007 establishing in the country social and income division. Are they indeed poorer and more vulnerable than all the rest, comparing their income levels, their levels of education and professional qualification, their levels of consumption and corresponding levels of personal self-assessment? Or vise versa, they are closer to the middle class 5 and above it? Even if only as potential? The sociological data that years old years old 18+ population under the middle middle above the middle Base: Youth survey September Base: Middle class survey June people, age Base: Nationally representative surveys, age 18+ we received allows a quite categorical answer to this question. As a whole the young people in Bulgaria belong more to the middle class than to the socially poor. (Graphic 1) Only about 10-11% from the years old people in Bulgaria belong to the poor: i. e. people with under the average for the country levels of life standards and selfassessment. The problems of these 10-11% 6 on their turn are extremely serious. The results from our survey in no way what so ever do not mean that youth unemployment, poverty and marginalization are not a problem for Bulgaria. Just the opposite, the problem is serious enough especially for the youth from the minorities. At the same time however it is clear that the young people in the country the majority of them are in fact and potentially a significant part of the economically active middle class. They are not anymore as they used to be years ago, out of the normal for 4 The state economy underwent through radical changes, as until 1990 in Bulgaria practically the private sector did not exist in industry, services and agriculture. Entire industries disappeared and their place was taken by new ones, and that process went along with unemployment growth of up to 20% of the active population in the year 2000, decrease of the purchasing capacity with over 35% and need of change in the life and professional strategies of the majority Bulgarians. 5 For the social-class stratification here were used criteria and results from conducted in May survey of Bulgaria: Beyond the Facts. The survey established that the average stratum as of 2007 is about 44% of people up to 70 years old in the country or near one third of the entire fully aged population as the middle incomes are the middle compared to the summed incomes in Bulgaria for the moment and not compared to the statistical or any other average numbers for EU. 6 The majority are young people from the minorities, mainly Roma, as well as youth living in villages or economically undeveloped regions and settlements. BULGARIA: BEYOND THE FACTS December

18 Graphic 2: Profile of the young people in Bulgaria (1) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% г. Under the average Average Under the average Household income: 1500 levs average Education: 49% Higher Place of living: 84% Sofia ( District center Self-assessment: above the average: 13% Household income: 810 levs average Education: 60% High school Place of living: 70% Sofia ( District center Self -assessment: around the average: 49% Household income: 440 levs average Education: 60% primary; 40% high Place of living: 32% Sofia ( District center Self-assessment: under the average: 42% Source: Survey of the social and economic contrasts after Bulgaria s accession to EU (a survey of the middle class), BBSS Gallup International, 2007 each modern society labor market. They can and to large extend already do have earnings relatively higher than their parents. A glance at the socioeconomical profiles of the interviewed young people up to 30 years old confirm this conclusion once again. (Graphic 2) The shown earnings per household of up to 30 years old people, who are part of the middle and the stratum above the middle, are higher than the respective ones for the country as a whole. The common between them is that for the young Bulgarians just like the rest of the age groups the middle and above middle standard of life is bound to the life in the relatively large cities district centers and the capital Sofia. The data shows also that: The economical activity of the young people is high: 87% of people above the age of 26 years work, only 7% are unemployed. Around 15% of the interviewed at age years have their own business The majority (over 70% of people between years old) are employed in the private sector. On second place we have registered strong wish for early separation from the parents and for earning own money before graduation from high school. These data show new for our country tendencies compared to the 90ies. The age for separation from the parents as of the moment is years (Table 1): over 80% of the youth at that age already support themselves alone. In conclusion the young 18 BULGARIA: BEYOND THE FACTS December 2007

19 Тable 1: Profile of the young people in Bulgaria (2) Total Age groups Do you live with your parents? Yes 68% 88% 72% 62% 41% No 32% 12% 28% 38% 59% Do you support yourself, regardless of whether your parents help you or not? Yes 54% 22% 52% 82% 90% No 46% 78% 48% 18% 10% Have you ever earned your own money, not from your parents (for those who live with their parents)? Yes I have worked 58% 65% 73% 57% 80% Yes, other 4% 1% 4% 15% 5% No 33% 27% 21% 18% 10% I don t know 5% 6% 3% 10% 5% Do you intend to try before you separate from your parents (for those who live with their parents/? Yes 64% 58% 60% 58% 60% No 7% 8% 12% 4% 5% I don t know 28% 35% 28% 38% 35% 45% of youth aged have earned own money; 75% intend to try to earn before they separate from their parents Source: Survey of the social and economic contrasts after Bulgaria s accession to EU (a survey of the middle class), BBSS Gallup International, 2007 people in Bulgaria can be characterized as economically active above the average with earnings also relatively above the average. Hence quite far from the traditional concept for marginalized and poor social group, which totally depends on the social policies of the state and the parents family. Naturally the social and material situation of the underaged youth years old depends too much on the situation of the parents. At the same time however the age for separation from the parents decreases to around years 7. So the known from other countries model in which the young people work part-time/seasonally parallel with their high or higher education starts to find place in Bulgaria too. We consider the high economic activity and the intention for early independence of the Bulgarian people under 25 years for one of the most important results and we consider them a serious factor for increase of the economical competition power of the country. 7 In comparison with from the beginning of the 90-ies of the last century BULGARIA: BEYOND THE FACTS December

20 GENERAL ADJUSTMENTS AND LIFE STRATEGIES OF THE YOUTH: OPTIMISM AND WILL FOR EARLY INDEPENDENCE The common optimism or pessimism in the assessment for given economy or society is indicative for the development tendencies. In general the optimistic expectations are usually a stable factor for continuation of the economic bustle. For the past several years Bulgaria has relatively high economic growth 6% average per anum. The sustainability of this development however depends much on the adjustments and the motivation too. It turned out that the young Bulgarians are well enough optimistic about the future development of the country as a whole (Graphic 3): again above the level of their parents. The optimistic expectations are connected in more general prospective mainly with EU, first of all as a general dimension of development for the country (Graphic 4). Around 56% of the interviewed apprehend the Euro integration of Bulgaria as something positive personally for themselves. At the same time among the Graphic 3: In your opinion does Bulgaria as a whole go to better or to worse? Young people Middle class Bulgaria % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% To better To worse I don t know Base: Youth survey September Base: Middle class survey June people, age Base: National representative survey October 2007, 1007 people, age 18+ Graphic 4: Our accession the the European Union for you personally is? Young people Middle class % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% good Neither good, nor bad Bad I don t know Source: Survey of the social and economic contrasts after Bulgaria s accession to EU (a survey of the middle class), BBSS Gallup International, BULGARIA: BEYOND THE FACTS December 2007

21 Graphic 5: Do you think that the membership in Europe will bring prosperity to Bulgaria? Yes, but only to the people, who are capable/educated Yes, ultimately to all of us Yes, only to politicians Yes, only to the large-scale business Yes, only to the corruped/unfair Yes, other No, for no one I don t know, I cannot estimate Young people Middle class Base: Youth survey September Base: Middle class survey June people, age Source: Survey of the social and economic contrasts after Bulgaria s accession to EU (a survey of the middle class), BBSS Gallup International, 2007 youth group EU has the same image that is typical for our entire society one positive image with dominating features as: Opportunities for labor or educational mobility and in general opportunities to travel, opening of the boarders Improvement of the environment and the life standard in Bulgaria, including the earnings The more important question connected to the general adjustments and expectations for EU is however different: what chances do the different social groups have to benefit from the membership of Bulgaria in the Union? And why? The data show unambiguously that for the youth the EU membership of Bulgaria means prosperity most of all for the professionally qualified people. They apprehend the EU membership of Bulgaria less like a factor for social protection of the vulnerable groups of the society 8 and more like a precondition for increase of the earnings and the successful realization of those who do well on the labor market. In this sense the young people in Bulgaria connect the EU mainly with advantages and not with risks. And those are advantages, which are based on the meritocration as a principle for the realization (Graphic 5): As a whole the survey from the data show high levels of optimism among the youth in Bulgaria as well as positive personal economic expectations connected with the entrance of our country into the club of the European economies. 8 A concept, which is typical for the older and with low earnings stratum in Bulgaria BULGARIA: BEYOND THE FACTS December

22 ECONOMIC ADJUSTMENTS: The economic adjustments and concepts of the youth are a key question regarding the competition power of the Bulgarian economy. We tried to establish what are the dominating adjustments among the interviewed: liberal economic values like supremacy of the market and competition, personal liability and risk undertaking, acceptation of the inequality in earnings, etc. or contrarily etatistic or egalitarian expectations. Besides the general adjustments we tried to describe also the specific personal plans and intentions of the young people in the PRAGMATISM AND LIBERAL VALUES country, aiming again to predict tendencies in the field of the labor market, the education and other important components of the economical competition power. Let s start with the tangible expectations and life intentions. First of all, concerning the personal financial status the young people in Bulgaria demonstrate clearly expressed expectations for fast growth of their personal/family incomes. (Graphic 6). The expectations for fast increase of the incomes in the next 2-3 years among the youth are actually higher compared to those of the representatives of the middle generation. The higher percent of I don t know answer in the above graphic is at the expense of the interviewed aged under 18. Actually over 60% of the already working youth (i.e. the age group years old) are convinced that their incomes will grow quickly: compared to 50% of the representatives of the middle class. Regarding the incomes from labor for the youth is typical the expectation for a higher starting salary and one closer to the reality assessment for improvement of their family Graphic 6: You expect the income of your family in 2-3 years to be: Young people Middle class Bulgaria % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Higher The same Lower I don t know Base: Youth survey September Base: Middle class survey June people, age Base: National representative survey, 1007 people, age 18+ Source: Survey of the social and economic contrasts after Bulgaria s accession to EU (a survey of the middle class), BBSS Gallup International, BULGARIA: BEYOND THE FACTS December 2007

23 Graphic 7: Which of the following is important for you in order to say that a job is really good? Good earnings/salary Secure job without risk for unemployment To do a responsible work that makes you feel personally realised To work with people that you like 3 20 I don t know 1 2 At first place At second place Source: Survey of the social and economic contrasts after Bulgaria s accession to EU (a survey of the middle class), BBSS Gallup International, 2007 earnings in the last 2-3 years 9. Both of these tendencies can be observed in the country 10, as well as the tendency for increased search of qualified staff on the labor market in the services, tourism and construction. In this sense the optimism of the interviewed youth is not due to lack of realism and pragmatism. Their plans for realization are quite pragmatic too: job in the private sector or starting their own business. The private sector is more attractive because of the opportunities that it offers for high/fast growing salary, which is a criteria number one for a good realization among the Bulgarian youth currently. (Graphic 7) Among the years old the percent of people who intend to start their own business 30% is twice higher than those who now have such business. These intentions are conditional enough so that we can base on them statistical prognosis for growth of the small business in Bulgaria. However there are indications that not a few young Bulgarians at the age of 30 years have general plans to start their own company. (Graphic 8) Further on the general economic adjustments and values of the young people in Bulgaria can be defined as economical liberalism, although not completely thought through. According to the sociological data that we have received: Prevailing is the opinion that the competition in the economy is something good and has to be encouraged. As well as that the increase of the significance of the private sector for the economy contributes for high competition and has to be encouraged The notion that the personal efforts/hard work ultimately lead to success, including financial, is widespread. At the same time the expectation 9 Every third of the interviewed young people under the age of 30 considers the incomes of his/her family as higher now compared to one/two years ago against 24% support for this opinion in the age group years old and only 5% on national base, i.e. from the total population aged 15+ years. According to the statistical data the average earnings for the country are growing with about 10% annually since 2005 on. 10 From preliminary data of the national statistics and the employers organizations the increase of the salaries in the private sector for the year 2007, the first year of Bulgaria s membership in EU, varies between 15-19%. BULGARIA: BEYOND THE FACTS December

24 Graphic 8: No matter whether currently you work/study in the future you would like/strive most of all for...: To work for salary in a private company 34 To run your own business 30 To work in state institution 14 To work free-lance lawyer, architect, etc. Take care for your home and family without working anywhere else Other Hesitation, I don t know 12 Currently running private business: 15% from the age group years Source: Survey of the social and economic contrasts after Bulgaria s accession to EU (a survey of the middle class), BBSS Gallup International, 2007 that the state is to take more responsibility for the people (opposing the thesis everyone is responsible for themselves ) is quite strongly expressed. (Graphic 9) This can be interpreted as egalitarism/etatism of the adjustments and also as expectation the state to take care for reforms in the field of labor market, education, public services as a whole, etc. in order to guarantee good conditions for the development of a competitive private sector. As a whole the question about the egalitarism in the adjustments in Bulgaria is too broad to be discussed in details within this analysis. We can only point out that for number of reasons the Bulgarians are strongly egalitarian in their adjustments and still tend to burden the state with super expectations for economic regulations and social compensations, which to some extend is a heritage from the socialist era. In this context the general economic notions of the interviewed youth under the age of 30 years can definitely be characterized as significantly more liberal and individualistic compared to those of the other age groups. It seems that there has appeared a new generation that shares in bigger extend the values of the meritocracy: remuneration and success according to the personal merits and efforts. The young people cherish the competitive environment and count or at least intend in general to count on the professional skills and the university degree as a factor for an ascending social mobility. Looking from this angle the Bulgarian youth with its economic conceptions is more a plus than a minus for the Bulgarian economy regarding its competition power. 24 BULGARIA: BEYOND THE FACTS December 2007

25 Graphic 9: General economical adjustments and values The earnings should be made more equal The share of the private companies has to increase The state to take more responsibility for the people Competition is something good The hard work usually leads to better life One can make money only on the account of the others Everyting in life is predetermined by destiny The differnece in earnings should grow The share of the state companies has to increase The people should take more responsibility for themselves Competition is harmful The hard work does not bring success The wealth can grow in such way that there is enough for everyone People decide their own destiny Source: Survey of the social and economic contrasts after Bulgaria s accession to EU (a survey of the middle class), BBSS Gallup International, 2007 EDUCATION AND YOUTH: THE UNIVERSITY EDUCATION IS A VALUE BUT IT DOES NOT OFFER ENOUGH REALISTIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR FAST PENETRATION ON THE LABOR MARKET In this context the question about the education in Bulgaria as a factor for good realization in a competitive economic environment becomes very important. This can be seen in the opinions of the interviewed: every second of the young people consider the university education a key factor for e good realization: (Table 2) Furthermore the engineering, economic and financial disciplines take the first places in the relative chart of specialties of education and this reflects the need discussed within the circle of the private sector employers to hire people with such professions. At the same time the data of the survey of Bulgaria: Beyond the Facts show that the higher education in the country currently is rather a barrier for the competitive power of the young generation. The higher education is apprehended more like a principal value. The relation between university and the labor market to large extend is missing. (Graphic 10) Only just a bit over one third of the young Bulgarians, who are university students are convinced that their specialty can provide really high incomes for them. About 43% do not think that the market needs specialists with the qualification that they are obtaining at the moment, every fourth is not sure whether there is a need of this professional qualification at all. Despite the strong wish for university education about half of the interviewed young Bulgarians declare that ultimately it might be better to have professional skills, even only from the high school in order to find a good job. (Table 3) As a whole the higher BULGARIA: BEYOND THE FACTS December

26 Тable 2: What is your education? What do you think is needed today/plan to obtain? Education Obtained % Wished % Second higher/dissertation, specialization 2 15 Higher education/university High school 25 - Professional high school 29 1 Primary 25 - Lower than primary 2 - I don t - 52 Base: all respondents 1000 Source: Survey of the social and economic contrasts after Bulgaria s accession to EU (a survey of the middle class), BBSS Gallup International, 2007 education in Bulgaria is still not apprehended by youth as an investment although there is general readiness for this. A reform is needed and it is already actively discussed. Currently the orientation to certain disciplines, universities or specialties is more fashion than a really considered choice and carrier planning. Here we should add up the adjustments for qualification increase after the graduation. This is apprehended as something good but difficult to implement here. Maybe this is the reason for which every fourth of the interviewed considers that the best case is to study in a university abroad, mainly in EU countries. As a whole the accelerating of the reforms in the higher education towards modernization of the contents and closer relation with the labor market currently is the most important youth policy. This is a main factor for the competition power of the under 30 years old Bulgarians here and in the EU as a whole. The young Graphic 10: Can you say that this specialty in Bulgaria...? offers opportunities for really high incomes has large search of specialists is highly competitive % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Base: age Yes No I don t know Source: Survey of the social and economic contrasts after Bulgaria s accession to EU (a survey of the middle class), BBSS Gallup International, BULGARIA: BEYOND THE FACTS December 2007

27 Тable 3: Which of the following statements do you agree with? Yes % No % I don`t know % It is normal to pay a lot for a good higher education in a famous university Not higher, but a good high school or professional education is needed Today one has to study and has to work in the meantime I would take credit to pay for education or training, which would guarantee me a highly paid job Things change fast and one has to study more all the time, no matter what degree does he/she have The most important in any education/ training are the skills for work with information and the new technologies that it provides In order to have a good job, anyone has to be computer literate Source: Survey of the social and economic contrasts after Bulgaria s accession to EU (a survey of the middle class), BBSS Gallup International, 2007 people wish to receive good education but they do not know how to do it. And furthermore when compared with the so-called mid-life generation the youth has as a base one very important skill today: the computer literacy 11. ADJUSTMENTS FOR EMIGRATION: LOW INTENTIONS FOR PERMANENT LEAVE OF THE COUNTRY, RELATIVELY STRONG WISH FOR WORK MOBILITY WITHIN THE FRAMES OF EU The young Bulgarians up to 30 years old have comparatively low wishes for emigration. A large number of them already have a significant personal experience from travel or even temporary work abroad. These are the main results from the part dedicated to the emigration in the survey of Bulgaria: Beyond the Facts. First of all every third of the people in Bulgaria, who are up to 30 years old, has already traveled abroad at least once. This share grows up to every second among the interviewed from the age group years old, as well as among those who live in the capital or the big cities as compared to the relative share of those Bulgarian citizens, who have traveled beyond the country s boarders on national base is around 18% total. We can definitely state that unlike the mid-life and the older generation the youth in Bulgaria has significantly more realistic idea about some countries in EU and it is based on personal experience. Every tenth of the interviewed has already worked outside Bulgaria, mainly as students seasonal work in the summer. This is why the intentions for permanent emigration are relatively low. Only 8% of the age group years old in the country are planning to move to EU or USA. Among them not more than one third intend to do this in the next 12 months, i.e. they have relatively firm intentions. This makes about 3% total, which is not a high share. Of course, it can be 11 Over 80% of the interviewed use computer and Internet. BULGARIA: BEYOND THE FACTS December

28 Тable 4: Do you intend to? Yes % No % I don`t know % Young Middle class Young Middle class Young Middle class Study abroad for more than 1 year Work abroad for more than 1 year Emigrate constantly abroad Base: Youth survey September Base: Middle class survey June people, age Source: Survey of the social and economic contrasts after Bulgaria s accession to EU (a survey of the middle class), BBSS Gallup International, 2007 maintained that the plans for economic emigration are among the sensitive questions, which people are not much disposed to answer in a sociological survey. The first year of Bulgaria s membership in EU so far proves that those sociological prognosis for low emigration made for a different occasion are quite precise 12. The European statistics show that there is no high emigration of Bulgarians to the EU countries in 2007 and the worries of some countries like Great Britain have proved strongly exaggerated. Prevailing are the wishes for temporary work abroad (nearly 27%) or for education abroad, but always accompanied with intentions for return in Bulgaria. (Table 4) From those who want to work abroad around 60% would work anything and the rest would seek a job in accordance with their profession/qualification. Again, a small part of those who want to work abroad have firm plans to do it within the next year. As a whole the data for emigration adjustments of the young Bulgarians are not disturbing and do not outline any serious problem. POLITICAL ADJUSTMENTS AND CIVIC ACTIVITY AMONG YOUTH: In Bulgaria the voters turnout and the civic activity of the people under 30 years old has been a subject of discussions in the last years. In 2007 there were elections for the European Parliament and for the local authorities that marked decrease of the total turnout of the Bulgarian SKEPTIC, BUT NOT PASSIVE CITIZENS voters to levels around 45% or lower. More importantly at these elections as well as in previous the tendency for increase of the average age of the voters receives conformation. If every second from the people above 50 years old exercises his/her voting right relatively constantly, only every third or even fourth of the people under 30 years do the same. This is why the young voters turnout is especially painful problem. A society the main social groups of which feel alienated from/not represented into the political process, is potentially unstable society. Therefore 12 A survey of the adjustments for short-term and long-term emigration, conducted by BBSS Gallup International and the Ministry of Labor and Social Policy in September BULGARIA: BEYOND THE FACTS December 2007

29 This country s problems are our joint responsibility This country s issues should be tackled by members of the government and politicians the subject for the political adjustments and eventual behavior of the young generation was among Graphic 11: Political adjustments: Activity DK Young people Middle class Source: Survey of the social and economic contrasts after Bulgaria s accession to EU (a survey of the middle class), BBSS Gallup International, 2007 the important ones in the survey. The results can be generalized as follows: Among the people under 30 years the largest is indeed the share of those, who are not interested at all in the political process: 42% At the same time the lack of interest in the current political debates does not at all mean indifference and passiveness. The majority of the interviewed young people share the opinion that the problems of the country are not only problems of the politicians and they cannot be and it is not right to be loaded with the total and uncontrolled right to make decisions. The opinion of the interviewed youth on this question come close to the opinion of the middle class people. (Graphic 11) Graphic 12: Would you personally participate in any of the following? Subscription lists Participation in charity actions Participation in volunteer initiatives, in unpaid activities To seek my rights (including in the court) in European court or institutions To sue the state, other institutions or companies that have violated my rights Other strikes or protests National strikes Meetings/demonstrations Civic disobedience Lobbysm 15 I don t know 25 Source: Survey of the social and economic contrasts after Bulgaria s accession to EU (a survey of the middle class), BBSS Gallup International, 2007 BULGARIA: BEYOND THE FACTS December

30 Only 15% of the interviewed young people express total unwillingness to vote; the rest tend to take participation in elections. The conclusion that the classic transition parties left and right, as well as the debates communismanticommunism that dominated the political life of the last decade are alien to the current situation is totally valid for the youth. Around 60% of the people under 30% do not have their own assessment of the socialistic past of our country: this seems as a distant history to them. In fact the new generation cannot find itself in the arguments of the current government and opposition and this is the main reason for its political passiveness. Around half of the young people trust at least one political party, the majority trust the main political figures (the President, the mayor of the capital Boyko Borisov) and EU as a whole. Similarly to the survey of the middle class that was conducted by Bulgaria: Beyond the Facts earlier this year the data show comparatively high readiness among the youth as well for civic activity of more modern type: court protection of personal rights violated by institutions, participation in subscription lists and volunteers initiatives. (Graphic12/ As a whole the young Bulgarians seem to large extend not tempted by the politics, but they are not at all passive citizens. At least as general declared adjustments and intentions. IN CONCLUSION: WHAT COMES OUT FROM ALL THAT? The young people in Bulgaria are the most positively disposed citizens to the possible future, both personal and the one of the country, in the context of the accession in the European Union. The years old people in the country now have ambitions for twice higher incomes than the average for the country as of this moment. These ambitions go with a strong will for financial independence, for making own money even before the 18th birthday and over 40% of the years old have already tried. This is an extending tendency. For their future high earnings the young people rely mostly on a well-paid job in the private sector or on their own business. The high remuneration for professional/qualified work is a priority, that stands before the security of the occupation. The general economic adjustments are comparatively liberal, but not totally: the competition is important, but the state social protection is also a value, although in a much smaller degree compared to the other generations of citizens of the country. The education in Bulgaria will turn out to be the main factor for increase (or vise versa decrease) of the general competition power of the new generation: The higher education is principally a value but there is no connection between the choice of profession and the market. The wishes for good profession are growing, but it is no tat all costs connected with higher education. The youth wants to, but does not have a real readiness for a real investment (on personal risk) in higher education, as well as in life-long studies/increase of the skills in one competitive environment. The above listed are actually real deficits of the current educational system at home and not defects of the adjustments and the information of the youth. The higher education system needs more marketability and investments, as wel as development of programs for increase of the qualification of those young people, who already work. The age group of years old has among all other age groups the most realistic notion about abroad and the possibilities there. For this reason the adjustments for permanent emigration are low. The youth have potential and will for civic, not traditionally political, activity: volunteering, participation in civic nets. Policies that encourage these forms of participation should be priority. The young people want to and are capable to be competitive, but they do not know how can that happen. Liberalization of the labor market and building of informational systems not just for unemployment protection, but also for career development is needed. 30 BULGARIA: BEYOND THE FACTS December 2007

31 UN Development program presents the hottest numbers and facts about Bulgaria ON-LINE full access to all data and archives possibility to compare the chosen indicators up to date information about Bulgaria already at BULGARIA: BEYOND THE FACTS December