Demography in practice World population and SDGs

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Kobe University Graduate School of Health Sciences Demography Special Lecture I, II 19 th July 2018 14:50-16:20 Demography in

1 Kobe University Graduate School of Health Sciences Demography Special Lecture I, II 19 th July :50-16:20 Demography in practice World population and SDGs Reiko Hayashi National Institute of Population and Social Security Research

2 World population by region population in billion Sub-Saharan Africa Year Sub-Saharan Africa Eastern Asia South-Central Asia South-Eastern Asia Middle East Europe Latin America +C. Northern America Oceania Source : United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, DVD Edition. 2

3 World population by broad age group years and over 2.0 Population in billion Annual change (%) Year Source : United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, DVD Edition

4 World population pyramid World 1950 World Female Male Female Male Population in 1, Population in 1,000 Source : United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision, DVD Edition. 4

5 Global turning point in 2010 dependency rate at the bottom 90 Dependency rate (%) Definition of elderly DR60+ DR World Dependency rate(%) = (Pop 0-14) + (Pop 60+ / 65+) Pop 15-59(64) Source : United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, DVD Edition.

6 Population = Birth Death ±Migration 6

7 750 Different indicators : birth World, both sex 6 Number of births in million in 5 years Crude birth rate, Total fertility rate Number of births in 5 years Total fertility (live births per woman) Crude birth rate (births per 100 population) Note : Crude birth rate is normally expressed as births per 1000 population but it is changed here to per 100 population so that three indicators fit in one graph. Source : United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision, DVD Edition. 7

8 Total fertility rate Age-specific fertility rates (births per 1,000 women) World Age of mother Age of mother Age-specific fertility rates (births per 1,000 women) Total x 5 /

9 Trend of total fertility rate 7 6 Total fertility rate Year AFRICA Eastern Asia South-Central Asia South-Eastern Asia Western Asia EUROPE LATIN AMERICA &C NORTHERN AMERICA OCEANIA WORLD 9 Source : United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, DVD Edition.

Total Fertility Rate(2010-2015) Many countries are below replacement level Source : United Nations, Department of

10 Total Fertility Rate( ) Many countries are below replacement level Source : United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, DVD Edition. 10

11 Different indicators : Death World, both sex Number of deaths in million Crude death rate, Life expectancy at birth Number of deaths in 5 years Crude death rate per 10,000 Life expectancy at birth Note : Crude death rate is normally expressed as deaths per 1,000 population but it is changed here to per 10,000 population so that three indicators fit in one graph. Source : United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision, DVD Edition. 11

12 Schema of life expectancy calculation using life table Number of person-years lived L(x,n) 500, , , , , , , , ,000 50, , , , ,544 World, both sex , , , , , Age Number of person-years lived L(x,n) 438, , , , , , , , , Central death rate m(x,n) Source : United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision, DVD Edition. Central death rate m(x,n) Age Number of person-years lived L(x,n) 0-97, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,847 Total 7,079,370 e

13 Trend of life expectancy Life expectancy in years WORLD Sub-Saharan Africa Eastern Asia South-Central Asia South-Eastern Asia Western Asia EUROPE LATIN AMERICA &C NORTHERN AMERICA OCEANIA Source : United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, DVD Edition. 13

14 United Nations Population Division World Population Prospect 14

15 Steady increase of international migration 300 Migrant in million Region of destination OCEANIA N.AMERICA LAC EUROPE ASIA AFRICA Year Note : LAC stands for LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN Source : United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division (2017). Trends in International Migrant Stock: 15 The 2017 revision (United Nations database, POP/DB/MIG/Stock/Rev.2017).

16 Proportion of international migrant(2015) Source : United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2015). Trends in International Migrant Stock: Migrants by Destination and Origin (United Nations database, POP/DB/MIG/Stock/Rev.2015). 16

International Migrant Stock http://www.un.

17 International Migrant Stock 17 migration/data/estimates2/estimates17.shtml

18 Practice 1 Find the population indicators of the country of your choice in World Population Prospect 2017 and fill in the form; 18

19 Practice 2 Make the population pyramid of the country of your choice. Download the format from; 19

20 Practice 3 Using data on international migration stock

21 Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs) 21

22 Monitoring system before and after MDGs, then SDGs Before MDGs (~2000) Human Development Indicators (1990~) Rio (1992), ICPD (1994), Beijing (1995) : more on texts, less numerical indicators MDGs ( ) 8 goals, 18 targets, 48 indicators Inter-Agency and Expert Group and UNDP in charge of monitoring Report on statistics Criticism on the decision of indicators (lack of transparency and frequent modifications) SDGs ( ) 17 goals, 169 targets, 235 indicators IAEG-SDGs and UNSD Too many indicators? Increasing interest on numerical target and evaluation framework is more explicit in recent time Better than national political framework Improved national statistics system Expansion of internet and data dissemination 22

23 The key UN documents on SDGs A/RES/70/1 Resolution adopted by the General Assembly on 25 September E/CN.3/2017/2 Annex III Revised list of global Sustainable Development Goal indicators

24 Disaggregation By 2020, enhance capacity-building support to developing countries, including for least developed countries and small island developing States, to increase significantly the availability of high-quality, timely and reliable data disaggregated by income, gender, age, race, ethnicity, migratory status, disability, geographic location and other characteristics relevant in national contexts (A/70/L.1, ) 24

25 Online resources for SDGs indicators UN Statistics Division UN Population Division World Bank Japanese governmental statistics Japanese translation of SDGs ukatsu01_ html Data on Japanese population 25

26 Practice 4 on SDGs 26

Building capacities for the production and use of migration data

Building capacities for the production and use of migration data Bela Hovy, Chief Migration Section, Population Division Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) United Nations, New York Side event