Socialist Republic of Viet Nam: HIV/AIDS Prevention Among Youth Project (Financed by Asian Development Fund IX Grants Program)

Transcription

1 Grant Consultant s Report Project Number: June 2006 Socialist Republic of Viet Nam: HIV/AIDS Prevention Among Youth Project (Financed by Asian Development Fund IX Grants Program) Thematic Report on Employment of Vietnamese Youth Ha Noi 2010 Prepared by MSc. Ngo Quynh An Savy 2 Consultant For Asian Development Bank This consultant s report does not necessarily reflect the views of ADB or the Government concerned, and ADB and the Government cannot be held liable for its contents. (For project preparatory technical assistance: All the views expressed herein may not be incorporated into the proposed project s design.

2 Survey Assessment of Vietnamese Youth 2 (SAVY2) THEMATIC REPORT: EMPLOYMENT OF VIETNAMESE YOUTH MSc. Ngo Quynh An Hanoi 2010

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4 Introduction The development of adolescents and youth is always a matter of primary concern in Vietnam as well as many countries around the world. This is the generation to decide the future and destiny of the country. In Vietnam, adolescents and young adults aged are the largest population group, accounting for nearly a quarter of the national population (over 20 million people - the General Statistics Office, Census and Housing 2009). The catch is these fundamental characteristics related to social life, attitudes, aspirations and challenges in the development of this population group is very important In the framework of the HIV/AIDS prevention among youth, the General office of Population and Family Planning and the General Statistics Office conducted the 2nd round of the Survey Assessment of Vietnamese Youth (SAVY). SAVY (round 1 and 2) is the large and most comprehensive survey about youth in Vietnam. The 2nd round of the survey was a collaboration between many national and international agencies and organizations in the country, from central to local levels, with the participation of 10,044 young people between years old in 63 provinces/cities, from urban to rural and remote mountainous areas. SAVY 2 data provided a comprehensive picture of the young Vietnam today as well as their changes compared with there same cohorts 5 years ago. SAVY 2 helps us see the aspects related to the development of youth such as education, employment, health (including reproductive health, HIV/AIDS, drug use, Injuries and violence. Besides the positive signs, SAVY2 also shows young people were facing the challenge to adapt to extensively transformed social and economic environment. Vulnerable youth groups of ethnic minorities, remote areas... also face the difficulties of material conditions, education and employment. The survey helps us understand more profoundly the thoughts, attitudes, desires and ambitions of Vietnam youth today and towards the future. SAVY2 overall results was launched in June 2010 On the basis of survey data, the financial assistance of Asian Development Bank and technical support of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), the General office of Population and Family planning in collaboration with national researchers compiled 9 thematic reports and policy briefs. Topics include 3

5 1. Education 2. Employment 3. Puberty Sexual and Reproductive health 4. Mental Health 5. Access and use of means of mass media 6. Attitudes of Vietnam towards some social issues 7. Injuries and violence 8. Substances use 9. Knowledge and attitude of Vietnam youth about HIV/AIDS and people living with HIV/AIDS. We hope that the findings of social life, attitudes and aspirations of Vietnam youth and the policy implications from 9 policies will contribute efficiently and practically to the policy making and the implementation of existing policies and programs for health improvement and overall development of the young people. The General Office of Population and family planning would like to thank the Asian Development Bank; the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA); Dr. Robert Blum and all the national experts for the valuable financial and technical support for the implementation of the survey, data analysis and development of the survey reports and policy briefs. We appreciate the dedication and passion of all the reports authors: Prof&PhD. Vu Manh Loi (Institute of Sociology), Prof&PhD. Nguyen Huu Minh, MSc.Tran Thi Hong (Institute for Family and Gender); PhD. Nguyen Thanh Huong, Prof&PhD. Le Cu Linh (Hanoi School of Public Health); PhD. Bui Phuong Nga (Independent Expert); MSc. Nguyen Thi Mai Huong (Center for Community Research and Development), MSc. Nguyen Dinh Anh (IEC Department, GoPFP), MSc. Ngo Quynh An (National Economics University), PhD. Nguyen Thanh Liem, Ms. Nguyen Hanh Nguyen, MSc. Vu Cong Nguyen (Institute of Sociology), Dr. Dao Xuan Dung (independent expert). Despite enormous efforts have been made, however the thematic reports may inevitably contain shortcomings. General Office of Population and Family 4

6 Planning would like to receive valuable inputs from national and international individuals, organizations interested in the development of Vietnam youth in an order to finalize these reports. We are pleased to present a set of thematic reports and policy briefs to all managers, scientists, local and international organizations working in and contributing to the comprehensive growth of young people in Vietnam PhD. Duong Quoc Trong General Director General Office of Population and Family Planning 5

7 LIST OF STEERING COMMITTEE OF 2ND NATIONAL SURVEY ASSESSMENT OF VIETNAMESE YOUTH STEERING COMMITTEE PhD. Nguyen Ba Thuy, Vice Minister of Health, chair MD, PhD. Duong Quoc Trong, Director of General Office for Population and Family Planning, Vice-chair Dr. Ngo Khang Cuong, Former Director of Department of Communication and Education, General Office for Population and Family Planning Ms. Tran Thi Thanh Mai, Vice Director of Department of Communication and Education, General Office for Population and Family Planning Mr. Nguyen Duy Khe, Director of Material Child Heath Department, the Ministry of Health Ms. Nguyen Thi Hoa Binh, Steering Board Member, Director of Center for Support of HIV/AIDS Prevention and Reproductive Healthcare for Women Vietnam Women s Union Mr. Phung Khanh Tai, Standing Member of Central Ho Chi Minh Communist Youth Union Mr. Nguyen Van Kinh, Former Vice Director of Vietnam Administration of HIV/AIDS Control, Director of National Institute for Tropical Diseases Mr.Le Thi Ha, Vice Director of Department of Social Evils Prevention, Ministry of Labor, Invalids and Social Affairs Mr. Nguyen Dinh Chung, Vice Director of Society and Environment Statistics Department, General Statistics Office, Ministry of Planning and Investment Mr. La Quy Don, Vice Director of Department of Pupil and Student Affairs, Ministry of Education and Training 6

8 THEMATIC REPORT AUTHOR GROUP MSc. Ngo Quynh An, National Economics University MSc. Nguyen Dinh Anh, Vice Director of Department for Communication and Education, General Office of Population and Family Planning Dr.Dao Xuan Dung, Freelance expert MSc. Nguyen Mai Huong, Director of Center for Community Health Research and Development PhD. Nguyen Thanh Huong, Hanoi School of Public Health Prof&PhD. Nguyen Huu Minh, Director of Institute of Gender and Family Prof&PhD. Le Cu Linh, Dean of Post Graduation Department, Hanoi School of Public Health Prof & PhD. Vu Manh Loi, Director of Family and Society Studies, Institute of Sociology PhD. Nguyen Thanh Liem, Institute of Population, Health and Development PhD. Vu Quy Nhan, Freelance expert PhD. Bui Phuong Nga, Freelance expert Ms. Nguyen Hanh Nguyen, Institute of Population, Health and Development MSc. Vu Cong Nguyen, Institute of Population, Health and Development INTERNATIONAL EXPERT Prof & PhD. Robert Blum, Jon Hopkins University of United States 7

9 CONTENT 1. Introduction Approach for analysis of the current employment situation of Vietnamese youth Youth labour force Transition period from school to work Main findings Current situation of youth s employment Transition period fro, school to work Influential factors on the current situation of the youth s employment Conclusions Current situation of Vietnamese youth and vulnerable youth groups The role of human capital factors and social capital affecting the youth s employment Role of lobour demand impact on employment of Vietnamese youth Active access to employment information sour ces Youth s demand on effective studies...32 REFERENCES

10 1. Introduction Survey Assessment of Vietnamese Youth is the biggest and most comprehensive survey ever conducted in Vietnam. This survey uses the household samples of VHLSS of GSO. The first round of SAVY was conducted in 2003 with 7584 young people aged in 42 provinces/cities. The second round was done in May 2009 with respondents of the same age group in all over 63 provinces/cities of the country. Employment is an essential need in the life of young people. Employment, shortages of employment and unstable jobs as well as low income affect all aspects of youth s life. Meanwhile, youth is a disadvantageous group in the labour market. They usually suffer from negative impacts of socio-economic changes. In comparison with other age groups, the unemployment rate the age group is usually higher. In accordance with the findings of the survey on labour and employment conducted by MOLISA, the unemployment rate of youth aged increased from 4.85 % in 2000 to 6.2 % in 2008 while this rate among those aged over 25 years old was stable at 1.5 %. In order to reflect an overall picture about employment of Vietnamese youth currently, the thematic report on Employment use the dataset of SAVY 2 together with the approach of analysis of the labour market and the transition period from school to work of young people. The specific targets include: - To reveal the current situation of employment of on-site labour force of Vietnamese youth. - To indentify negative and positive influential factors on employment situation of young people, including factors relating to human capital, social capital and demand-supply on the labour market as well as the economic conditions of the regions. - To find out the vulnerable youth groups on the labour market. - Changes in the transition period from school to work of Vietnamese youth in the context of economic integration. Since the sample of the 2 rounds of the survey only access and interview young people living with the family at the survey time, it does not represent those who are not living with the family, namely the homeless, youth migrant for work, students away from home The data about employment situation of youth to be analyzed here only to compare between the two rounds of SAVY and should not to be compared with other dataset on Labour and employment that are conducted by MOLISA and GSO. 2. The approach of analysis about the current employment situation of Vietnamese youth. In order to describe clearly and adequately the picture on employment of Vietnamese youth, this report use two combined approaches as mentioned below. The approach to analyze the labour mar- 9

11 ket aims to reflect characteristics of the labour force of on-site youth with employed and unemployed youth. The approach to analyze transitional period from school to work will supplement information about life closely attached with employment demand of the Vietnamese youth. 2.1 The youth labour force According to the diagram 01 below, total number of youth is divided into two groups: (i) Not to be included in the extended labour force (including those who are not working and do not intend to look for a job because they are at school or disable); (ii) to be included in the extended labour force (including the remaining youth). The extended labour force include: (i) the group of presently employed youth (ever worked to earn money and never worked to earn money); (ii) the group of unemployed youth (really unemployed and who are potential to be unemployed). Concretely: Presently employed and ever worked for income: SAVY II uses the concept of youth who ever worked to earn money to refer to all of those who have any kind of legal jobs to earn money for themselves and the family. Presently working but never ever worked for income: Include young people probably work within the household but do not get paid, or they are having a job but with low income, only considered as a part-time job. This kind of job does not bring the possibility of economic independence for young people and is also considered a disadvantage for youth s position on the labour market. Unemployed and potentially unemployed: In SAVY 2, the situation of real unemployment is identified when a young person is not working, neither is in temporary leave or waiting time for a new job and is currently looking for a new job, or to be ready to work within the week of the survey time if he/she manages to find a job. Besides, the concept of potential unemployment is necessarily to be referred, including young people are not going to school, able to work but are not working, are not looking for a job or are looking for a job but are not ready to work within the week of the survey time. The total number of these 2 unemployed groups equals the number of labour force who is presently not at work. With regards to the jobs quality, we refer to skilled job and unskilled job. Skilled job is any job requiring the labourer with special production techniques and skills to complete the work of a certain complicated level. 10

12 Diagram 01: Youth groups divided by employment status in SaVY2 Total (N=10044) Not included in the extended labour force (26.7%) Included in the extended labour force (73.3%) Currently employed, ever worked to earn money (59.5%) Currently have a job, never worked to earn money (26%) Currently not employed, Are currently looking for a job (Unemployed) (4.5%) Currently do not work, are not looking for a job (potentially unemployed) (10%) Skilled jobs (30%) Skilled jobs (3.6%) Unskilled jobs (70%) Unskilled jobs (96.4%) * Data was not collected in SAVY The transitional period from schooling to work In SAVY, the approach to different status in the transitional period from schooling to work of youth brought some interesting information about labour and employment. In general, there are 4 groups: (i) schooling and not working; (ii) schooling and working at the same time; (iii) not schooling and are working; (iv) not school and not working (Diagram 02). Schooling group: Two first groups, schooling and not working; and schooling and working at the same time. For young people, in the tendency of improving educational opportunities, spending time on education and improvement of the human capital will help to increase their position on the labour market. Therefore, there is a hypothesis that the percentage of schooling young people will increase in the next 5 years. Besides, there is another supporting argument for this hypothesis which is that after the economic crisis occurred on the world and in Vietnam in , the discouraged worker hypothesis argues that if the unemployment rate increases, the job opportunity is more difficult and labourers are unemployed in most of the time. In that case, they will be discouraged and decide to leave the workforce. Young people can go back to schooling to accumulate more knowledge, skills to have better opportunities on the labour market. Even when the economic crisis has not occurred yet, in order to meet the demand of the modern economic sector in the integration period, the need of professional labourers increases, so the labourers in general and young labourers in particular will be motivated to continue schooling to improve the professional level or change the career suitably with the demand of the labour market in the period of 11

13 strong economic restructure in Vietnam. Beside the hypothesis of increasing rate of schooling young people, the rate of working youth will probably increase because of the following reasons. In accordance with the added-worker hypothesis with the argument that if the bread-winner in the family is jobless, and then his/her dependent people (spouse/children) may join the workforce. In the economic slowdown, the rate of these people joining the workforce such as young labourers will increase. Besides, the diversified employment opportunities of the transitional economy create more jobs for young people. Hence, the combination between education and employment, flexible educational and employment opportunities (in terms of time, work place, education, mode of services provision, management ) which are more and more diversified in the market nowadays will facilitate young people to study and work at the same time. No longer schooling youth: This group includes young people who are currently working and not working. This group is in need of attention the most. Exclusive of those who are incapable to work, this group consists of youth currently unemployed, discouraged to quit the workforce or being rejected from the workforce, or even from the community for a certain reason. Sometimes they are doing unstable or kinds of unofficial jobs which generate income but not sufficiently reported at the survey time. Chart 02: Youth groups divided by transitional periods from schooling to working in SaVY 2 Total (N=10044) Currently schooling and not working (28.0%) Both schooling and working (20.7%) Working and not schooling (42.1%) Not schooling and not working (9.2%) 3. Main findings 3.1 Current situation of youth s employment Current situation of youth was analyzed by the criteria such as being employed and unemployed; doing skilled jobs The flexibility on the labour market and popular sources of information on jobs for young people are also analyzed to draw a more comprehensive picture on labour and employment of Vietnamese youth nowadays. 12

14 Ø Employment and Unemployment Chart 3.1 indicates that, compared with 5 years ago, the rate of youth who are employed and ever worked for income remained almost unchanged (59.5% in 2009 compared with 58% in 2003). The rate of employed youth but currently doing unpaid household work or part-time jobs accounts for 26% of youth workforce. Chart 3.1: Actual situation of employment of Vietnamese youth, SAVY 1 and SAVY 2 Tỉ lệ % Joining the extended labour force (a) Currentemployed, ever worked for income (b) Currentemployed, (b) Unemployed never worked for income (b) Potentially unemployed (b) Doing skilled jobs (d) Ever worked Doing for income skilled jobs at school (d) age (before 18 years old (a) a Compared with total number of youth b 4 components in the extended workforce of youth (Diagram 01) c Compared with the number of employed youth d Compared with the number of youth who ever worked to earn money Choosing to work is totally different from being forced to work too early for certain reason. Data showed that the average age of first working time to earn money increased from 16.6 to 17 over the last 5 years, and the rate of youth started working too early (before 15 years old) decreased nearly half (down from 13.1% to 6.5%). The rate of extended young workforce start working before 18 years old, even decreased in this period (35% vs. 27% respectively), but the pressure of working during the going-to-school age still affects around ¼ Vietnamese youth. Early working for income will considerably affect the educational opportunities and improvement of professional level and skills, and eventually affect the work outcomes in the future of young people. 13

15 If assessing the employment opportunities for youth through unemployment rates, then currently, the tendency of both unemployment and potential unemployment rates did not increase in comparison with 5 years ago. The unemployment rate of youth in SAVY 2 is 4.5% (vs. 12.5% in SAVY 1); and the rate of potential unemployment in SAVY 2 is 10% (vs. 30% in SAVY 1 1 ). Among the potentially unemployed young people, 26.4% are in age group. Nearly half of this potentially unemployed group (48.9%) is in the age group, which is the group that just finishes upper secondary school; and the remaining 24.7% is in the age group. The number of potentially unemployed young females is almost double that of the young males (66% vs. 34%). Looking at the cause of potential unemployment, we can also see some differences between males and females. Chart 3.2 shows that, nearly half of potentially unemployed females do not look for job because of housework (47.5%). Meanwhile, in comparison with young females, the rates of young males falling into potential unemployment because of think that there is no work or no suitable work/don t know where and how to look for a job, and Don t want to work are much higher ((29% vs. 19% and 14.3% vs. 5.3% respectively). Chart 3.2: Causes of potential unemployment of young workforce in Vietnam, SaVY No suitable jobs/don t know where to find jobs Temporary sick/busy/ waiting for jobs Bad weather /wait for crops housewife Don t want to work Schooling Other reasons Males Female 1 Since SAVY I data do not exactly split the figures for unemployed and potentially unemployed youth, which may include the currently employed youth group but did not work for income, making this rate in SAVY I quite high compared to the corresponding rate in SAVY II. However, if supposing this structure of SAVY 2 is similar to that of SAVY I (accounting for 30% of total employed youth), the expanded unemployment rate in SAVY I about 17%, well above the 14.5% in SAVY II. This shows that the percentage of youth unemployment do not tend to increase after 5 years. 14

16 The data in the Table 3.1 below provides additional detailed information about the employment situation of youth groups by some basic criteria. Young females are more vulnerable to fall into potential unemployment. This rate of females is twice higher than that of males (13.9% vs. 6.5%). In addition, among married youth, the rate of potential unemployment of females is twice higher than that rate of single females ((20.7% vs. 10.9%). Clearly, because of their role of housewife, giving birth and bringing up the little children of young females have reduce the motivation of jobs finding of the young females. TABLE 3.1: real situation of youth by some characteristics, SaVY2 Characteristics Rate of employed, ever worked to earn money N=4384 Rate of employed, never worked to earn money N=1910 Unemployment rate N=334 Rate of potential unemployment N=738 Sex Male Female Ethnicity Kinh Ethnicity Age group Migration Ever (being away from home for more than 1 month)x Never Socio-Economic region Red River Delta North East North West North Central area Central coastal area Central Highlands South East Mekong river Delta Living area Rural Urban

17 The rates of unemployment and potential unemployment is higher than in the age group, include the mainstream youth who finished upper secondary school and join the workforce, starting the working life. This group also receives less attention than the younger group because 18 years old is considered reaching adulthood. However, this group is also vulnerable and easily falls into unemployment and potential unemployment because of limit of experience and skills as well as competitiveness in the labour market. The reason of being unemployed due to high expectation of work resulting in more time spent searching for suitable job has explained the situation of higher number of unemployed Kinh youth than other ethnicities. For the ever migrated youth, the experience of ever worked to earn money is more popular than those who have never been away from home. Comparison between the urban and rural area indicates that, while the real unemployment rate in the urban area is 2.4 times higher than in the rural area, the difference is not significant in terms of potential unemployment. The very high unemployment rates of young people in the Southern Central coastal region (6.6% and 12.1%) and the Mekong Delta (9.9% and 14.1%) show that the employment opportunities in these two developed regions were not suitable with young people, as well as the on-site workforce did not yet meet the demand of skilled labourers in these dynamic economic regions. Ø Doing unpaid jobs and unskilled jobs The current situation of doing unpaid job in the family or part-time job but never having worked for income among youth is also worth to consider because doing these kinds of work does not make them economically independent, and most of these jobs are unskilled (96.4%). Presently, there are 26% of the extended workforce are working, but never worked for income (accounting for over 30% employed youth). Even though this rate does not fully reflect the current situation youth doing unpaid jobs (because there might be a number of youth who ever worked for earning now also are doing unpaid jobs) but the data shows the tendency that there seems to be more youth under 18 years old doing these kinds of jobs than other age groups (73.3%). Apart from young people under 18 years old, the EM youth group also has higher rate of doing this kind of job (53% and 31% respectively). Over the last five years, the quality of youth workforce tended not to be improved. The rate of trained labourers out of the whole sample increased from 19.1% to 25.5% between the two surveys, but the rate of trained youth (including those who completed vocational training and finished the level of upper high school but less than college) in the extended workforce remained almost unchanged (26% and 27.8% respectively). This indicates that the programs to enhance youth labour quality conducted over the past 5 years did not work for the on site youth workforce. Hence, the unimproved youth workforce quality together with the 2008 economic recession had affected the youth employment. In reality, only 22% of employed youth are doing skilled jobs. But if we only compare the currently employed group with the ever worked for income group, the rate of youth 16

18 doing skilled jobs decreased considerably from 45% in SAVY1 to 30% in SAVY 2. Clearly, unemployment is not the problem for young people after the economic recession. However, there is a significant decrease in the rate of youth doing skilled jobs. Since the demand of working for income is essential for everybody, particularly young people, it makes them accept any kind of job that generates income during the economic recession. It is worth to mention that the percent of trained youth who presently doing unskilled jobs to earn money has rapidly increased in both urban and rural areas (both increased from 2 to 9 times between the two surveys), causing a great waste of resources. The below Chart indicates clearly this situation. CHART 3.3: The rate of current-employed youth, ever worked for income, doing unskilled jobs up to the training status, by urban-rural area, SaVY 1 and % Not trained yet Vocational - trained from intermediate level downwards Training from primary intermediate level, college, university Rural area in SAVY 1 Rural area in 2008 Urban area in 2003 Urban area in College and university above While the situation of doing unskilled jobs is not much different between males and females, the difference is considerable between age groups, decreasing by older ones. The real cause of this phenomenon is that the more mature young people are, the more training opportunities they achieve, so getting more chances of skilled jobs. Data in the Table 3.2 shows that being trained for a job helps to reduce nearly half of youth doing unskilled jobs. But if starting to work before 15 years old, it reduces half of youth doing skilled jobs. 17

19 TABLE 3.2: Percent of doing unskilled jobs by some characteristics, SaVY 2 Percent doing unskilled jobs Criteria Percent doing unskilled jobs Sex Living area Male 78.6 Rural 82.5 Female 77.7 Urban 60.3 Age group Socioeconomic regions Red River Delta North East North West 92.3 Ethnicity North Central area 90.3 Kinh 73.6 Central coastal area 70.7 Others 95.6 Central Highlands 90.0 Trained labourers South East 59.0 Untrained labourers 91.2 Mekong river Delta 80.5 Complete upper secondary school 47.3 Age of first work but received vocational training Post high school but less than bachelor 44.9 Before College/University and older 23.0 Data also shows the opportunities of skilled jobs in the urban area are more popular than in the rural area. Areas such as Mekong delta, Red River Delta and Southern central coastline provided more opportunities of skilled jobs than other regions. Ø Flexibility of young people on the labour market The flexibility of youth on the labour market reflects how easy to find a job as well as the situation of labour transition. It can be evaluated by criteria such as: Doing the jobs being trained about (among the trained labourers), being satisfied with the current job (among working youth) and believing that finding a job nowadays is easy (among all the respondents). Of these 3 criteria, only the first criteria help evaluate objectively the flexibility on the labour market. The two rest criteria 18

20 are subjective concepts of young people. While the two subjective criteria tended to increase, the more objective criteria tended to decrease with the percent of youth doing the jobs they were trained on falling from 67% in SAVY 1 to 42% in SAVY 2. This indicates relative optimism of youth about easy jobs transition on the labour market as well as jobs finding, even though the reality is not like that when only 26% youth received vocational training and over 1/3 of them did jobs that they were trained on (accounting for about 1/7 young workforce). This could also be the consequence of the economic crisis that make many youth have to accept jobs (even not the one they were trained) to earn a living or to support the family during the economic difficulty. The rates of young males and females finding jobs that they were trained on are not much different, but these rates are different among age groups. While this rate of age group is only 28.4 %, it is 42.4% for age group and 45.6 % for age group. TABLE 3.3: Flexibility on the labour market of Vietnamese youth in SaVY 1 and 2 SAVY I SAVY II Do the jobs they were trained on (among those received vocational training) Satisfied with work (among those we are working) Believe to find a job easily (all respondents) Only 11% of all respondents believe that it is easy to find a job. But noticeably, achieving higher educational level does not help youth to be more confident to find a job. The higher education they achieve, the less confident they are in terms of belief on the possibility to find a job. Those who have received vocational training are most optimistic about jobs finding. CHART 3.4 : Percent believe to find a job, by educational level, SaVY Untrained High school graduation with vocational training Post high school but less than bachelor College/University 19

21 Despite the majority of youth are doing unskilled jobs, but out of employed youth, only are not satisfied with their job. Among those who are unsatisfied with the current jobs, the highest percent report the reason of having to do a job that they don t like (48%), the next reason is because of low income (35.8 %, and because having to work too much (10.6 %). Only few youth cared about other criteria such as safety, social insurance, and promotional opportunity of equal environment.so, youth s expectation on job is relatively low, mostly relating to areas of career and income. Ø Popular sources of information on employment The source of information about employment through jobs center or school, jobs service organizations become popular when 38% respondents reported these as the main sources of information % reported to find jobs at the enterprises or vocational training settings. This shows that 2/3 Vietnamese youth where to actively access information on jobs. This helps to increase the opportunity to access the efficient support from the Government and the community in the process of jobs finding. Even so, family, friends and relatives are also relatively important sources of information on jobs for youth (23.5 %). CHART 3.5: main sources of information on jobs, SaVY % Friends/relatives Enterprises/ companies/ vocational training centers Advertisements Service center/ school/ Organizations 0 20

22 3.2 Phase transition from school to work 2 Chart 3.4 shows that in comparison with 5 years ago, the percent of youth chose to focus on education remains almost unchanged (40% in SAVY1 and 38% in SAVY 2), but the percent of youth who chose to study and work at the same time increases considerably (from 3% in SAVY 1 to 11% in SAVY 2). The rate of those who chose to leave school and work only also increase nearly 10% after 5 years. The percent of youth not involving in any of these two important activities in this transitional period: to study and to work for earning reduces 2/3. This indicates that the economic integration created the trend of more youth want to shorten the schooling time to work, while some others have life-long studying demand when they choose to work and study at the same time instead of focusing only on studies as earlier time. CHART 3.6: Percent of youth in the transitional period from school to work, SaVY 1& Tỷ lệ % Schooling and not working for earning 3 11 Both schooling and working for earning Not schooling and currently working for earning 25 8 Not schooling and not working for earning SAVY I SAVY II 2 Notable, in SAVY I, employment status refers only to the type of job for earning, but in SAVY II, it also included unpaid household work. So, to compare between the 2 surveys, we considered these rate in SAVY II involving current-employed jobs and ever worked for income. However, when considering the structure of these youth groups in SAVY II, we still use the rate out of total employed youth. 21

23 Chart 3.7 shows that young females tend to invest on education more than males; either they spend all time on education or study and work at the same time. This fact was probably because focusing on education brought more benefices for females on the labour market than for young males. Therefore, the percent of young males chose stop schooling to work is higher than that of young females (47.7% vs. 36.6%). More females who neither work nor school at the survey time than males (11.2 % vs. 7.1%). This might reflect the situation of many young females were on maternal leave or chose to do housework. Ethnic minority youth had fewer conditions to focus on education as the Kinh youth. They either work or go to school at the same time, or the majority already finished schooling. The data also reflected the status of school age youth working which is quite popular (about 49% of the age group). In addition, up to 21% of youth aged had dropped out, currently either working or not. This situation is also worth to be paid attention. In general, marriage usually has connection with the choice of stop schooling. Even though there were up to 68% married respondents in age group choosing to stop schooling, which is reasonable, 32% of the rest were still in the school age and their choice to work or falling into the situation of not schooling nor working (up to 90% of married not schooling and not working were females). CHART 3.7: transitional periods from school to work of Vietnamese youth by some characteristics, SaVY 2 100% % 60% % % 0% Male Female Ki nh Others age age age Ever married 33.5 Ever migrated Ever immigrants unprecedented Rural migration 39.5 Urban Schooling, not working Both schooling and working Schooling, not working Finish schooling, not working 22

24 Similarly, the experience of ever migrated (living away from the family for more than a month) also made more youth stop schooling (70.5 % of ever migrated youth stopped schooling, currently work or not). Rural youth had fewer conditions to focus on education than urban youth. 54% rural youth stopped schooling to work or not; while this percent of urban youth was 43% Factors impact the employment situation of youth Using the multi-variate analysis, factors affecting the possibility of being employed, unemployed and doing skilled jobs of Vietnamese youth are presented in details as following: Being employed and unemployed SAVY data is used to estimate the multi level logistic regression. The data is at individual level. Each respondent in the extended workforce is an observation unit out of the total of 7366 youth. From the result of the regression model, we can calculate the changes of percents (probability) of 4 choices being employed currently, ever worked for income, unemployed and potential unemployed changed in comparison with employment status being correlated 60% or 0.6; 26% or 0.26; 4% or 0.04 and 10% or 0.1 respectively when an independent variation changes and other variations remain the same as follow 3 (Table 3.8). The following table of probability calculation is interpreted: for example young males are compared with young females (females are the reference group), the rate of currently work but never worked for income falling from 26% to nearly 20%; the unemployment rate falling from 4% to 3.5%, the potential unemployment rate falling from 10% to over 4% and these changes have p<0.05. So, compared with females, males have higher rate of currently work but never worked for income (72.4 % vs. 60%). We can interpret similarly with other variations. TABLE 3.4: Changes of probability (percent) Currently work, ever worked for income currently work and never worked for income, unemployed and potentially unemployed based on logistic regression, SaVY 2 4 Dependent variation: y is the employment status (Currently work, ever worked for income =0; Currently work, never work for income =1; Unemployed =2; Potentially unemployed=3) Independent variation Probability (percent)the estimated coefficients corresponding to the independent variables are statistically significant: 0.1 level is *; 0.05 level is **; and 0.01 level is ***) Currently work, ever worked for in come Currently work, never work for income Unemployed Potentially unemploye d 3 The rate is based on the general average of the expanded youth labor force reported in chart 1 page 5. 4 Author also present briefly statistically significant in the logistic regression. To access the complete model, please the author at ngoquynhan2002@yahoo.com. 23

25 Referred group DEMOGRAPHY Sex: Males (Females are the reference group) *** 0.035** 0.041*** Ethnicity: Kinh/Chinese (Other ethnicities are the reference group) ** 0.175*** Age *** 0.064* 0.298*** Marital status Married/co-habitation (singles are the reference group) ** 0.026* 0.155*** Ever migrated (never migrate is the reference group) *** HUMAN RESOURCES Training status Finish vocational training (Never receive training is the reference group) *** 0.016*** 0.074*** College/University and higher (Never receive training is the *** *** reference group) 3. LABOUR DEMAND Socio-economic region Southern East (Red River Delta is the reference region) *** 0.089*** 0.171** Mekong river Delta (Red River Delta as for reference *** *** Living area Urban (Rural is the reference region) ** 0.058* SOCIAL CAPITAL Family living standards Medium (Low living standards is the reference group) *** ** High (Low living standards is the reference group) *** * Family including 4 children and more (1-2 child families are the reference group) *** Not live with parents because of their death or divorce (those who live with father and mother are the reference group) Father s educational level Finish upper secondary school (Those who do not finish this level are the reference group) ** ** *** 0.055** Education level and employment status of mother Graduated from high school (Those who do not graduate from high school are the reference group) *** ** Do not work (current work is the referred status) ** *** Join mass organization (Those who do not join mass organization *** ** is the reference group) 24

26 Changes in the above table also show: the factors that increase the unemployment rate compared with the reference group can be divided into two groups: (i) Group of factors that help strengthen youth s expectations of work then increase unemployment and potential unemployment rates are: Kinh young people (ethnic minority youth as the reference group), similar with older age youth group, youth fully confident on their own ability, employment and income prospects; youth groups whose father graduated from high school. Impact of father or mother's education level, higher or lower did not have statistical significance in this model. (ii) Groups of factors reflect difficulties in the labor market that make increase the rate of youth unemployment including labor demand factors. For example, in comparison with the reference area of the Red River Delta region, the unemployment rate and potential unemployment in the Southern East was significantly higher (8.9% versus 4% and 17.1% vs. 10% respectively), similar to the potential rate of unemployment in the Mekong River Delta (17.7% versus 10%). The unemployment rate in the Southern East was more than double the rate in the Red River Delta, showing more clearly the consequences of the economic crisis that affected the sector manufacturing goods for exports and the foreign-invested sector, accounting for over 70% exports values, leading the country in attracting foreign investors. High unemployment may also affect the motivation of job searching and thus also increase the potential rate of unemployment. In addition, differences in employment status of youth between the Red River Delta and other regions are not statistically significant. Besides, the factors reducing risks of youth unemployment can be divided into two groups: (i) Group of factors that reduce expectations for the job, motivating youth to work so they easily accept any kind of job (such as the group of married youth or those living together without a marriage certificate (2.6%) compared with the reference group of single youth), youth group in 4-child or more families (unemployment rate of nearly 2%) compared with a reference group of one-to-two-child families, single-parent youth groups because of parent s lost or divorce, the potential unemployment rate is 6%, lower than the reference group of those who are living with both parents at a rate of 10% ; (ii) Group of human capital related advantaged factors helping young people easily find jobs, such as young males compared with young females, vocationally-trained group compared with untrained group (unemployment rate was 1.6% compared to the reference rate of 4%). The number of more optimistic youth being unemployed is lower (with unemployment rate of 1.4%). Graduation from university/college or higher only significantly reduce the potential unemployment rate of young people (only about 4%, lower than the reference level of 10%). Meanwhile, social capital factors such as level of family connection may not be effective enough to reduce the risk of youth s unemployment, the participation into mass organizations of youth contribute only to reduce the likelihood of potential unemployment. The youth whose mothers graduated from high school will reduce the risk of potential unemployment and increase the unpaid or part-time jobs opportunities. 25

27 In addition to unemployment and potential unemployment status, doing unpaid jobs also affects the ability to secure the economic independence and income safety as well as the work quality. Factors associated with the reduction of doing unpaid work with statistical significance include: young male, mature age, being married or living together without a marriage certificate, ever migrated, human capital factors (vocational training, being fully confident in the ability itself, job and income prospects), social capital factors (acting as motivation factors such as youth live with single parents because of their death or divorce, unemployed mother), labor demand factors (urban areas vs. rural areas, the Southern East region and Mekong River Delta vs. Red River Delta). Among those factors, the human capital factors with have received vocational training and labor demand are the most powerful to reduce the rate of unpaid work. Notably, university/college or higher graduation youth are those with highest rate of currently working, never worked to earn money (44.8 vs. 26% of the reference group). Probably, these young people were searching for suitable jobs so temporarily accepted part-time or unpaid work within the household. Similarly, the optimistic youth groups, those with parents graduated from high school, those with medium or high living standards families or the group participated into mass organizations, have high percent of current employment, never worked for income, which is 35% and higher than the reference percent with p <0.01. Thus, we can see, the support of parents and family results in youth s financial independence. Joining in mass organizations, perhaps mainly local Youth Union is only suitable for youth working in the household, and the young people of school age, so this rate is high in the group of youth involving mass organizations (35% compared with the reference rate of 26%) Skilled jobs Same as above, we found out the factors associated with the ability of having skilled jobs of young people in Vietnam, using multiple logistic regression model. At this point, data at the individual level only consider each youth employment as a unit of observation, with a total of 6295 youth. Dependent variable: The ability to have a skilled job will receive two values Y = 1 (skilled jobs), Y = 0 (unskilled jobs), in which Y = 0 is the value chosen as a reference. From the results of estimates parameters of the multi-level logistic regression model, we can predict that the probability of youth doing unskilled jobs changes in comparison with the reference status with the probability of having skilled jobs is 0.22 (22%) when an independent variable varied while other variables remain. The probability used to make reference value is determined based on an average rate of youth doing skilled jobs out of total number of employed youth in SAVY 2. We can predict the rate of employment skills of youth and the observed increase or decrease than the 22% reference level when the independent variables changed in the following chart (Chart ) From the perspective of labour supply, data showed that human capital factors with the qualification is the most influential factor on the likelihood of having skilled jobs for Vietnam youth. Trained young labourers have more opportunities for skilled jobs than the reference group (untrained youth). If the probability of doing skilled jobs of the untrained group is 22%, then that 26

28 figure of the trained is up to 73%. For youth who are in the middle of vocational training, college or university progress, the rate is 58%. For those who graduated from university, the probability is 90%, with statistical significance level of p <0.01. Social capital factors such as higher family living standards and average parent s education level (after high school but less than university level) also contributed significantly to increasing possibility of skilled jobs when these factors make increase the rate of doing skilled jobs from the reference level of 22% to l44% and to 57% as the highest rate with p <0.01. Thus, families and parents support may help young people to have accumulated a higher training level, so enable them to find skilled jobs. However, when parents have high education levels of University/College and higher, it did not significantly increase the possibility of having skilled jobs for Vietnam youth. CHART 3.8: Probability (rate) projection for skilled employment of Vietnam youth by human Capital and Social Capital, SaVY 2 ((the estimated coefficients corresponding to the independent variables that are statistically significant at significance level of 0.1 is labeled *; level of 0.05 labeled **; and 0.01 labeled ***) Mother finished post high school but less than bachelor (not finishing high school as for reference Father finished post high school but less than bachelor (not finishing high school as for reference High living standards (low living standards as for reference) 0.57 Average living standards (low living standards as for reference) *** 0.44 College/University (No schooling as for reference) *** 0.90 Vocational trained,unfinishedcollege, university (No schooling as for reference) *** 0.58 Vocational trained, finished college, university (No schooling as for reference) *** Reference group Additionally, on the labor demand side, in comparison with the Red River Delta Region, except in the South East region, other areas have fewer skilled job opportunities for youth. The rate of youth doing skilled jobs was greatly reduced from the reference level of 22% to 10% in the Mekong Delta region, and the lowest was 1% to 2% in the Northeast, Northwest, North Central and Central 27

29 Highlands (p <0.01). In short, the Red River Delta Region and the Southeast region provided many job opportunities for skilled jobs for young people than other parts of Vietnam. (Chart 3.9). Several factors reduce the likelihood of skilled employments for young people reflecting the disadvantages of young people on the labor market, including EM youth (being EM reduced the probability of having skilled job than Kinh/Chinese young Kinh /Chinese of 77%), youths who were married or living together (this factor reduces the probability of having skilled jobs than single youth of 9%); Youth having to work for income before 15 years old (reduced probability of having skilled jobs than young people started working to earn a living after 15 years of age of 8%) with statistical significance level p <0.01. Ethnic minorities group, being married and having to work early for earning are factors that reduce the choices of the labor market when most of them do not have the opportunity to improve their qualification and skills. This disadvantage is exacerbated when employment opportunities in the skilled labor market decreased due to economic recession. Besides, there are also factors reducing the possibility of finding skilled jobs of young people, but do not reflect disadvantages on the current labor market, such as gender. In this sample, males are less likely to have skilled employments than females (15% compared to 22% respectively, p <0.01). This situation was not reflected in the analysis of two variables. This can be explained by the trend that young females tend to invest more in improving education and skills, and probably the skilled job opportunities for males decreased after the economic downturn. CHART 3.9: Probability (rate) projection of skilled employments of Vietnamese youth by regions, SaVY 2 Mekong river delta*** 0.10 South East 0.22 Central Highlands*** 0.02 Central coastal area *** 0.11 Northern central 0.02 Northern West *** 0.01 Northern East *** 0.01 Red river delta (as for reference)

30 4. Conclusions 4.1 Current employment situation of Vietnamese youth and vulnerable youth groups Although the real unemployment rate for youth is 4.5%, but the reality showed that nearly 10% of young people are without jobs, even though they do not find work. This is of the submerged part of iceberg reflecting a lack of suitable job opportunities for youth. The highest levels of unemployment and potential unemployment among young people are among age group, of high school graduation youth. This is a sign showing that they are less competitive on the labor market as being new comers. Approximately two thirds of potentially unemployed youth were young women with being housewives as the most common reason. Poorly motivated to participate into the labor market and search for jobs because Do not like to work or No suitable jobs/do not know where to find jobs are the main reasons of potential unemployment among young males. However, unemployment is not the Vietnamese youth's problem due to a failure to see the increasing unemployment in the last 5 years. The problem of Vietnamese youth is the shortage of opportunities for suitable skilled jobs with a dramatic reduction of doing skilled jobs rate after 5 years. Lack of education and training opportunities is also a factor causing this decline. Moreover, the situation of from 40% to nearly 50% of the trained young labourers still have to accept unskilled jobs reflecting a waste of huge training resources of the society. Besides, a group of youth who are not economically independent must do unpaid jobs, often including young women, age group, ethnic minorities, and untrained young labourers. It also exits a situation where colleges/universities or higher graduation youth were doing unpaid jobs, probably because of ongoing searching for suitable jobs. The economic dependence likely makes young people disadvantaged in the labor market in the medium and long term. Still, nearly a quarter of Vietnamese young people ever worked while schooling before the age of 18. Early work affects the position of youth in the labor market, increasing the risks of continuum of doing unskilled and unpaid jobs. Vulnerable young people often fall in potential unemployment situation rather than in the actual unemployed group, but this group generally received less attention to date. This group include youth with low educational level, did not receive vocational training or have not yet completed a certain vocational training, lived away from home for a month or more, lived big size families (from 4-5 or more children), being married, or do not participate into any mass organization. In general, job expectations of the Vietnamese youth are relatively low. They are only interested in the area and income, but not yet in safety, security, work environment and other job-related factors. Low job expectations also influence the employment outcomes of youth. As for the ethnic minority youth, early working youth, married /cohabiting youth, in addition to limited qualification and skills, the low expectations make them easier to accept unskilled jobs for income. 29

31 The flexibility of youth laborers on the labour markets tends to decline when the percent of young labourers found jobs that they were trained for decreased more than a third compared to five years ago, although they are optimistic about the prospects of the labor market. Notably, better qualification did not help young people to be more confident about the possibility of easily finding a job. This situation reflects the combined effect of declining labor demand, youth capacity to difficultly adapt to changes in the labor market, ineffective supportive systems on the labor market The role of human capital and social capital influencing the employment of Vietnamese youth Influence of these factors can be in two directions: (i) human capital and social capital creates advantages for the youth in the labor market, thus increasing the possibility of paid jobs, skilled jobs and reduce the possibilities of unemployment. (ii) human capital and social capital increase / decrease expectations for work and therefore increase / decrease the risk of unemployment as well as the ability to accept unskilled jobs, unpaid jobs during the time of searching for suitable jobs. human capital and social capital creates advantages for the youth in the labor market: For human capital factors, only education level demonstrated a positive impact on employment outcomes for youth. The strongest impact found on trained youth when they have significantly increased possibility of getting paid and skilled jobs, significantly help to reduce the unemployment risk. Also graduation from University/College or higher did not increase the possibility of finding jobs, but only increases their jobs expectations. There is a phenomenon of wasted trained young laborers when 40% -50% of them are forced to do unskilled work. Also, when other factors were controlled, the results showed that young men have an absolute advantage in the labor market when the unemployment rate and the rate of doing unpaid work of this group are lower than compared to young women. Emotional capacity reflected by the optimism of youth helped them reduce the unemployment and potential unemployment risk. This demonstrates that emotional capacity mainly motivate young people to join the labor market for jobs, not yet help them towards the labour market with high productivity and income, but mostly are still pleased with the low quality and unpaid work. Evidence of statistical significance is unfound to prove that social capital factors such as the family support (living standards, family connection, educational level of parents) and the support of organizations can help reduce the unemployment and potential unemployment risks for young people, but some of them created significantly increased percent of young people doing part-time or unpaid jobs namely average or higher living standards, parents graduated from high school level, mass organizations participation. The role of family and parents support did not clearly show a positive impact on youth s employment opportunities. For example, the affects of employment status and educational level of the father is less significant in this model, while factors of employed mother and high school graduation mother reduced the potential unemployment risks for young people, 30

32 and increased unpaid employment possibility. Thus, social capitals only work to support young people to find jobs but do not help to ensure their financial independence. Also, it is notable the survey was done among young people living in the household, so the support from families and organizations were not different between youth groups, but in the case of comparison with the migrant youth group, results may vary. However, family living standards and education levels of parents play a role in supporting and enhancing the possibility of skilled employment for youth. For youth whose parents achieved average educational level (after high school or college), families average or higher living standards, are more likely to have skilled jobs. Ø Human capital and social capital increase/decrease jobs expectations. When job expectation is high, young people will spend more time and wait to find appropriate jobs, so unemployment and potential unemployment risks will be higher, the ability to do the unpaid jobs will be higher, however, the ability to find skilled jobs is also higher. Conversely, when job expectation is low, youth easily accept any job for income, so it will reduce the unemployment risk, and at the same time the likelihood of doing skilled jobs. High job expectation: In many cases, the status of unemployment and potential unemployment often fall into young people with good human capital and social capital leading to high job expectation, so they spend more time to find suitable jobs (as Kinh youth, youth of older age, youth fully confident about their own ability, job prospects and income, groups of youth whose fathers graduated high school or higher). Low job expectation: In contrast, in some cases, young people with low job expectation easily to accept unskilled jobs, so the unemployment rate of this group decreased. Examples of this groups: early work before age of 15 for income, being married or living together, youth from families with 4 children or more; youth with single parent (loss or divorced parent). 4.3 Impact of labor demand on the employment outcomes of the Vietnamese Youth Urban areas and dynamic economic development centers always create more opportunities of productive jobs and higher incomes for young people; significantly reduce unpaid work percent (the South Central Coast, Southeast and Mekong River Delta vs. the Red River Delta, the urban areas vs. rural areas). However, these areas are also significantly affected by internal and external economic changes, thus the unemployment and potential unemployment percent in the youth labor force increases. Two regions of Red River Delta and Southern East provided more skilled job 31

33 opportunities for young people than other regions. 4.4 Proactive access to information sources for employment Most young Vietnam knew how to proactively and positively access sources of information on employment. Through schools or employment centers, employment service organizations, vocational centers, youth can easily access the diversified and reliable information. This helps increase their opportunities to receive the of the Government assistance with employment support programs Aspiration for effective studies of youth The current trend of more young people want to finish schooling early to work was observed. Fewer young people in the labor force wished to continue schooling but most of them still proposed the Government to create priorities for their learning opportunities. This shows that youth recognized that learning is essential, but they prefer more effective studies. There are two options for youth, either shorter learning time, with more contents relevant to labor market demand or following the "lifelong learning" concept. More youth chose working and schooling at the same time. Employment is still the most important desire for Vietnamese youth today. REFERENCES 32