Attendance Change for Conventions Held in Vancouver in 2015

Transcription

1 Attendance Change for Conventions Held in Vancouver in 2015 Prepared for: Prepared by: Tourism Vancouver MNP LLP MNP Tower, Suite West Hastings Street Vancouver, BC V6E 0C3 Date: April 1, 2016

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Introduction Data Analysis Percent Change from Previous Convention Analysis by Location of Previous Convention Analysis by Size of Previous Convention Five Year Historical Average Conclusions Appendix... 8 List of 2015 Conventions... 8 Page ii

3 1. INTRODUCTION The purpose of this study was to examine the effect on attendance of relocating a convention to Vancouver. To understand the impact the following analysis was conducted: 1. A sample of conventions was identified. Each of these conventions was held in Vancouver in 2015 but was held elsewhere in The percentage change in attendance between 2015 and 2014 was calculated for each convention in the sample. The conventions were then classified into groups according to the location and size of the previous convention and the overall change in attendance was calculated for each of the given categories. 3. The average change in attendance was calculated for conventions held in Vancouver during the past five years (2011 through 2015). The results were reported by location of previous convention. Page 1

4 2. DATA ANALYSIS 2.1 PERCENT CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS CONVENTION Attendance data were collected from 39 conventions held in Vancouver in The data were then used to calculate the percentage change in attendance from 2014 to 2015 for each convention. Figure 1 displays the percentage changes for each convention arranged in order from the largest positive change to the largest negative change. Information on the conventions included in the analysis can be found in the appendix. Figure 1: Percentage Change in Attendance from Previous Convention % 140.0% 120.0% 100.0% 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% -20.0% -40.0% -60.0% The reported percentage point changes in attendance for the 39 conventions in the sample ranged from +150 percent to -44 percent. Overall, there was an average increase in attendance from the previous year of 7.5 percent. Note that removing the convention with the largest increase in attendance (150 percent) still results in an average increase of 3.7 percent. 1 Excluded from the analysis is the FIFA Women s World Cup which reported a 60 percent increase in attendance. While this was a successful event that attracted over 1.3 million visitors to Vancouver (an increase of over 500,000 visitors compared to the previous year), inclusion of this event would greatly skew the analysis due to the large number of attendees. Also excluded are conventions that were held in Vancouver in Note that looking at percentage point changes alone can be misrepresentative. For example, the convention with a 150 percent increase in attendance represented only an additional 150 delegates. The FIFA Women s World Cup, on the other hand, had a 60 percent increase in attendance, but this corresponded to over 500,000 additional visitors. It is therefore helpful to look at both percentage point and absolute changes for a more meaningful analysis. Page 2

5 In the table below, the conventions are categorized into five groups based on the size of their change in attendance, as follows: (i) Conventions with a substantial increase in attendance (i.e. greater than 20 percent increase in attendance); (ii) Conventions with an increase in attendance (i.e. an increase between 10 percent to 20 (iii) (iv) (v) percent); Conventions whose attendance essentially did not change (i.e. smaller than 10 percent increase or decrease); Conventions with a decrease in attendance (i.e. a decrease between 10 percent to 20 percent); and, Conventions with a substantial decrease in attendance (i.e. greater than 20 percent decrease in attendance). Table 1: Attendance Change by Category for Conventions in 2015 Attendance Change Conventions Percent of Total Substantial Increase Increase No Change Decrease Substantial Decrease Total This table indicates that 31 percent of conventions experienced an increase or substantial increase in their attendance, while 28 percent of conventions experienced a decrease or substantial decrease. The remaining 41 percent experienced little or no change in their attendance. Page 3

6 2.2 ANALYSIS BY LOCATION OF PREVIOUS CONVENTION The conventions can be categorized according to the locations where they were held in 2014, as follows: (i) Canada: conventions that were held in other parts of Canada in 2014; (ii) US: conventions held in the US in 2014; (iii) Other: conventions that were held outside Canada and the US in The results are summarized in Table 2. Table 2: Attendance Change by Location of Previous Convention Conventions Difference Percentage Change Canada 17 17,128 15,622 (1,506) (8.8%) US 6 20,422 20,145 (277) (1.4%) Other 16 47,306 43,080 (4,226) (8.9%) Total 39 84,856 78,847 (6,009) (7.1%) Of the conventions held in Vancouver in 2015, the majority (59 percent) were located in a city within Canada or the US in the previous year, while roughly two-fifths (41 percent) were held in other parts of the world. Conventions that were held in Canada in 2014 witnessed an overall decrease in attendance equal to 8.8 percent, while attendance for conventions previously held in the US decreased overall by 1.4 percent. Lastly, conventions held outside Canada and the US in 2014 saw the largest decrease in attendance equal to 8.9 percent. Note that while there is an average percentage point increase in attendance for conventions held in Vancouver, the total number of attendees has decreased from 2014 to This illustrates that in 2015, smaller conventions held in Vancouver saw an increase in attendance year-over-year, while larger conventions saw a decrease compared to the previous year. Page 4

7 2.3 ANALYSIS BY SIZE OF PREVIOUS CONVENTION The conventions can also be grouped according to size. In this section conventions fall into one of the following groups based on the number of delegates reported for their 2014 meetings: (i) Very large: conventions with attendance of 2,000 or more; (ii) Large: conventions with attendance between 1,000 and 1,999; (iii) Small: conventions with attendance between 500 and 999; (iv) Very small: conventions with fewer than 500 delegates. The results are summarized in Table 3. Table 3: Attendance Change by Size of Previous Convention Conventions Difference % Change Very Large 9 65,776 59,188 (6,588) (10.0%) Large 8 11,125 11,050 (75) (0.7%) Small 6 4,005 4, % Very Small 16 3,950 4, % Total 39 84,856 78,847 (6,009) (7.1%) Very large conventions experienced the largest decrease in overall attendance of 10 percent, while large conventions experienced a decrease of only 0.7 percent. Small and very small conventions experienced an increase in attendance equal to 8.2 percent. Page 5

8 2.4 FIVE YEAR HISTORICAL AVERAGE The conventions held in Vancouver in 2015 can also be grouped with data collected from previous years. In this section we report on the historical five year average change for all conventions held in Vancouver between 2011 and 2015 that were held elsewhere the previous year. The results are summarized in Table 4 and are reported by location of the previous convention. Table 4: Five Year Average Change in Attendance by Location of Previous Convention Average Percentage Conventions Change Canada % US 76 (2.7%) Other % Total % Over the five year period of analysis, conventions that were held in Vancouver experienced an average increase in attendance over the previous year equal to 3.5 percent. Of these conventions, those that were held in Canada the previous year saw the largest average increase in attendance equal to 10.9 percent, while conventions previously held in the US experienced an average percentage point decrease of 2.7 percent. Lastly, conventions held in Vancouver during this period and held outside Canada or the US the previous year saw an average increase in attendance of 2.3 percent. Page 6

9 3. CONCLUSIONS The following are the key findings of the study: 1. Conventions held in Vancouver in 2015 reported, on average, a percentage point increase in attendance over the previous year of 7.5 percent. 2. In the same year, the total number of attendees at conventions held in Vancouver decreased over the previous year by 7.1 percent. In particular, very large conventions (2,000 or more delegates in 2014) reported a 10 percent decrease in attendance in 2015 and large conventions (1,000 to 1,999 delegates in 2014) reported a 0.7 percent decrease. Small conventions (500 to 999 delegates in 2014), and very small conventions (less than 500 delegates in 2014), on the other hand, saw an 8.2 percent increase in attendance in While there is an average percentage point increase in attendance for conventions held in Vancouver in 2015, the total number of attendees has decreased from 2014 to This illustrates that the smaller conventions saw an increase in attendees while the larger conventions experienced a drop in attendance from 2014 to Between 2011 and 2015, conventions that were held in Vancouver experienced an average percentage point increase in attendance over the previous year equal to 3.5 percent. Of these conventions, those that were held in a city within Canada the previous year saw an average percentage point increase in attendance equal to 10.9 percent, while conventions previously held in the US experienced an average percentage point decrease of 2.7 percent. Conventions held in Vancouver during this period and held outside Canada or the US the previous year saw an average percentage point increase in attendance of 2.3 percent. Page 7

10 4. APPENDIX LIST OF 2015 CONVENTIONS Organization Conference Dates Modern Language Association 01/08/ /11/2015 International Pacific Halibut Commission 01/26/ /30/2015 Acklands-Grainger Inc. 02/03/ /05/2015 International Facility Management Association 03/08/ /09/2015 Shakespeare Association of America 04/01/ /04/2015 Best Western International Inc 04/13/ /15/2015 Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries 04/21/ /25/2015 Networking World Anesthesia Convention 04/29/ /02/2015 OpenStack 05/18/ /22/2015 Canadian Association of Physical Medicine & Rehabilitation 05/21/ /23/2015 Eye Recommend 05/22/ /24/2015 Canadian Association of College and University Student Services 05/23/ /27/2015 Canadian Public Health Association 05/25/ /28/2015 * Canadian Soccer Association (FIFA Women s World Cup) 06/06/ /05/2015 International League of Dermatological Societies 06/08/ /13/2015 International Society of Cerebral Blood Flow and Metabolism 06/08/ /13/2015 Canadian Society for Training and Development 06/11/ /12/2015 International Air Transportation Association 06/23/ /25/2015 Institute of Internal Auditors 07/05/ /08/2015 Economic Leadership Forum 07/06/ /08/2015 International Society of Nurses in Cancer Care 07/08/ /11/2015 IEEE Antennas and Propagation Society - International 07/19/ /24/2015 International Society for Equitation Science 08/06/ /08/2015 Page 8

11 Academy of Management 08/07/ /11/2015 Inter-Society for the Electronic Arts 08/14/ /19/2015 Canadian Fertilizer Institute 08/16/ /20/2015 Chaozhou International Fellowship 08/19/ /21/2015 Investors Group Financial Services Inc 09/20/ /22/2015 Union of BC Municipalities 09/21/ /25/2015 Human Proteome Organisation 09/26/ /30/2015 Canadian Academy of Geriatric Psychiatry 09/30/ /30/2015 Canadian Chapter of the AACP 10/01/ /04/2015 Canadian Society for Ecological Economics 10/01/ /04/2015 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics 10/04/ /09/2015 International Actuarial Association 10/14/ /18/2015 Royal College of Physicians and Surgeons of Canada 10/21/ /21/2015 Canadian Society of Allergy and Clinical Immunology 10/21/ /24/2015 International Society for Quality of Life Research 10/21/ /24/2015 Canadian Association of Nephrology Nurses & Technologists 10/22/ /24/2015 International Diabetes Federation 11/30/ /04/2015 * Not included in the analysis Page 9