CAREER PATHS OF MIGRANTS IN DESTINATION LABOR MARKETS

Transcription

1 CAREER PATHS OF MIGRANTS IN DESTINATION LABOR MARKETS Çağlar Özden* Development Research Group THE WORLD BANK EU-OECD DIALOGUE ON INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION & MOBILITY Brussels February 24, 2014 *Usual disclaimer applies. The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and should not be attributed to the World Bank, its Executive Directors and the Countries they represent.

2 MIGRANTS IN EVERY LABOR MARKET Real Madrid UEFA Champions League Champions 2014 Côte d'ivoire World Cup Champions 2014

3 MIGRANTS IN EVERY LABOR MARKET Academy Awards for Best Director 2013 Nobel Prize in Chemistry

4 MIGRANTS IN EVERY LABOR MARKET Taxi Drivers in New York City 8 countries represented Over half have college degrees Brent Holster interviews, 2004

5 WHAT EXPLAINS BRAIN EXPANSION & BRAIN WASTE?

6 I. How does occupational placement and career paths vary by country? II. III. What explains this variation? How does performance evolve over time? IV. How do economic flucutations affect migrants careers?

7 I HAVE TWO CHOICES: I. POLICY ORIENTED Conceptual Presentation II. DATA/RESEARCH ORIENTED Empirical Presentation

8 DATA: US census American Community Survey 2010 Foreign educated males critical & employed Range of Education variables, year of arrival, age Performance indicators: i. Prestige index ii. Average Education level of the current occupation iii. Income

9 ANALYSIS: What determines performance? Multivariable estimation with performance indicators as dependent variables Explanatory variables: i. Education ii. Age iii. Country of Origin iv. Year of arrival v. Interactions of the above variables Once estimation completed, construct artificial individuals identical in every respect except country of origin Predict their performance over time.

10 OCCUPATIONAL PLACEMENT 1980 Tertiary Educated Migrant, 25 years old at the time of arrival in Anglo_Saxon Central_America East_Asia Mexico South_Asia Western_Europe OCCUPTIONAL PRESTIGE INDEX

11 OCCUPATIONAL PLACEMENT 1990 Tertiary Educated Migrant, 25 years old at the time of arrival in Anglo_Saxon Central_America East_Asia Mexico South_Asia Western_Europe OCCUPTIONAL PRESTIGE INDEX

12 OCCUPATIONAL PLACEMENT 2010 Tertiary Educated Migrant, 25 years old at the time of arrival in Anglo_Saxon Central_America East_Asia Mexico South_Asia Western_Europe OCCUPTIONAL PRESTIGE INDEX

13 OBSERVATIONS: Significant initial heterogeneity in occupational attainment Significant improvement over time in initial years after arrival Convergence catching up by lower performing Latin American migrants The Crisis affects all migrants, but especially the Latin Americans. They lose significant ground and gap re-opens

14 OCCUPATIONAL PLACEMENT High-school Educated Migrant, 25 years old at the time of arrival in Anglo_Saxon Central_America East_Asia Mexico South_Asia Western_Europe OCCUPTIONAL PRESTIGE INDEX

15 Tertiary Educated Migrant, 25 years old at the time of arrival in Anglo_Saxon Central_America East_Asia Mexico South_America Western_Europe OCCUPTIONAL PRESTIGE INDEX

16 OBSERVATIONS: Migrants without tertiary education show significant differences. There is limited improvement, convergence (before crisis) and decline after crisis Still Latin American migrants are the worst impacted during the crisis. Recent arrivals are less affected (both positive and negative) but Latin American migrants again bear the burden

17 INCOME LEVELS Tertiary Educated Migrant, 25 years old at the time of arrival in Anglo_Saxon Central_America East_Asia Mexico South_Asia Western_Europe INCOME LEVELS (Natural log)

18 OBSERVATIONS: Significant initial heterogeneity in wages for tertiary educated migrants Significant improvement over time in initial years after arrival LIMITED Convergence catching up by lower performing Latin American migrants gaps are maintained The Crisis affects tertiary educated Latin Americans. They lose significant ground and gap expands from 75% to 110%

19 INCOME LEVELS Tertiary Educated Migrant, 25 years old at the time of arrival in Anglo_Saxon Central_America East_Asia Mexico South_Asia Western_Europe INCOME LEVELS (Natural log)

20 OBSERVATIONS: Significant initial heterogeneity in wages for newer tertiary educated migrants Limited improvement in wages No Convergence gaps are maintained The Crisis affects everybody equally

21 High-School Educated Migrant, 25 years old at the time of arrival in Anglo_Saxon Central_America East_Asia Mexico South_Asia Western_Europe INCOME LEVELS (Natural log)

22 OBSERVATIONS: Significant initial heterogeneity in wages for high school educated migrants Significant improvement over time in initial years after arrival LIMITED Convergence catching up by lower performing Latin American migrants gaps are maintained The Crisis affects all less educated migrants equally.

23 I. How does occupational placement and career paths vary by country? SIGNIFICANTLY! Results available for specific countries! Note: Eastern European performance very similar to Central Americans!!

24 II. What explains this variation? Heterogeneity is related to: * Educational quality at home * Selection effects * Role of Assimilation policies / legal status / language South Asians vs. Western Europeans vs. Latin Americans * No discrimination minimum gap in performance of second generation role of American citizenship laws

25 III. How does performance evolve over time? Convergence observed for all education levels - both in occupational placement and income Stronger for higher skilled migrants Stronger for those who start behind

26 IV. How do economic fluctuations affect migrants careers? SIGNIFICANTLY! Bad shocks harm those who made the biggest gains in good times Latin American tertiary educated migrants! Less Damage to migrants from other regions Less Damage to less educated migrants

27 LESSONS FOR EUROPE: Data, Data, Data Role of Selection / assimilation / language Data, data, data Role of Labor Market Flexibility / mobility

28 LOCATION OF BIRTH, EDUCATION AND MIGRATION DYNAMICS The case of 20,000 African doctors in the US No detailed data source that tracks all of these variables. Need to rely on different sources and econometrically match them.

29 Egyptian doctors in the US BORN IN EGYPT ACS TRAINED IN EGYPT AMA 4,867 4,062

30 Egyptian doctors in the US BORN IN EGYPT TRAINED IN EGYPT 1,339 3, (25%) (65%) (10%) TOTAL NUMBER OF EGYPTIAN DOCTORS IN THE US: 5,401

31 Egyptian doctors in the US Trained in another African Country BORN IN EGYPT TRAINED IN EGYPT 124 Born in another African Country Born in the United States Trained in the United States 1,077 3,528 Trained in the rest of the world Born in the rest of the world 25% of total 65% of total 10% of total

32 South African doctors in the US BORN IN SOUTH AFRICA TRAINED IN SOUTH AFRICA Trained in another African Country Born in another African Country Trained in the United States Born in the United States Trained in the rest of the world Born in the rest of the world 41% of total 36% of total 23% of total TOTAL: 2,289

33 Age of Migration to the US 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Ghana Nigeria South Africa

34 WHY GO THROUGH THE TROUBLE? We need to be very careful when we talk about skilled migration Not every Egyptian (or Moroccan or Ethiopian or Nigerian) doctor studied at home There are slightly over 20,000 Sub-Saharan + North African doctors in the United States 45% of studied at home 45% studied outside the region two-third in the US! Global human capital markets are more complicated and integrated than we realize. The flows are not uni-directional but form a multidimensional network

35 Thank You!