THE FUNCTIONING OF THE TROIKA : MAIN MESSAGES FROM THE ETUC REPORT. Athens, March 2014

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1 THE FUNCTIONING OF THE TROIKA : MAIN MESSAGES FROM THE ETUC REPORT Athens, March 2014

2 THE PICTURE THAT EMERGES. IS A PICTURE OF A COUNTRY BEING TAKEN OVER NOT A «SILENT» TAKEOVER.. BUT AN OPEN AND HOSTILE TAKEOVER..

3 ONE KEY AIM : «THE SANCTITY OF DEBT» ALL EXTERNAL DEBT IS TO BE REPAID AND TO MAKE SURE DEBT WILL BE REPAID, LIVING AND WORKING STANDARDS NEEDED TO BE CUT MASSIVELY ALL STANDS IN THE WAY OF THIS POLICY HAD TO GO

4 FIRST THING TO GO: ECONOMIC RATIONALITY DANGERS OF AN OBSESSIVE POLICY OF FISCAL AUSTERITY WERE WELL KNOWN. BUT WERE BEING IGNORED CONSEQUENCE: VICIOUS CIRCLE OF CUTS, ECONOMIC COLLAPSE, MORE CUTS

5 AUSTERITY ON A MASSIVE SCALE. 30 Total of fiscal cuts from 2010 to 2014, in % of GDP (1) Greece Portugal Ireland Spain UK Italy Euro Area France Netherlands Finland Belgium Austria Germany

6 .TRIGGERING ECONOMIC COLLAPSE 10 WHAT HAPPENED TO ECONOMIC ACTIVITY SINCE ENTERING THE TROIKA REGIME (includes 2014 forecast) 5 0 Portugal Greece Cyprus Ireland

7 SECOND THING TO GO: ALL THAT IS SOCIAL 30 UNEMPLOYMENT RATES Portugal Greece Ireland Cyprus year before troika entering 2013

8 SECOND THING TO GO: ALL THAT IS SOCIAL 30 Anchored poverty rates (2008) Portugal Greece Ireland year before troika entering 2011

9 THIRD THING TO GO: WAGES AND COLLECTIVE BARGAINING SYSTEMS THE TROIKA «LOGIC»: A DEVALUATION OF WAGES HAS A DOUBLE DIVIDEND: IT KILLS DOMESTIC DEMAND AND IMPROVES COST COMPETITIVENESS; EXPORT LED GROWTH IS TO SAVE THE ECONOMY FROM THE EFFECTS OF AUSTERITY IMPORTANT: THIS IS NOT JUST ABOUT SQUEEZING WAGES DOWN AT THIS PARTICULAR MOMENT IN TIME. BUT ALSO ABOUT WEAKENING THE SYSTEMS OF WAGE FORMATION THEMSELVES SO AS TO MAKE MONETARY UNION FIT FOR FUTURE SHOCKS

10 THIRD THING TO GO: WAGES AND COLLECTIVE BARGAINING SYSTEMS ALSO, THIS IS NOT JUST ABOUT THE «DECENTRALISATION» OF COLLECTIVE BARGAINING BUT ALSO ABOUT PUTTING INTO QUESTION THE PRINCIPLE OF COLLECTIVE BARGAINING BY REPRESENTATIVE TRADE UNION REFORMS SUCH AS: FREEZING MINIMUM WAGES CUTS IN MINIMUM WAGES CUTS IN PUBLIC SECTOR WAGES REVERSING HIERARCHY IN LEVELS OF COLLECTIVE BARGAINING MAKING A LEGAL EXTENSION OF BARGAINING AGREEMENTS MUCH MORE DIFFICULT CREATING A LEGAL VACUUM WHEN THE BARGAINING CONTRACT COMES TO AN END SUBSTITUTING REPRESENTATIVE TRADE UNIONS WITH «GROUPS OF WORKERS»

11 EVOLUTION OF NOMINAL AND REAL WAGES PER EMPLOYEE SINCE START OF TROIKA PROGRAM AND UP TO Portugal_ Greece Ireland Cyprus ,7-3,7-6 -5, , ,8

12 Number of published collective conventions in Portugal

13 FOURTH THING TO GO: AUTONOMY OF SOCIAL DIALOGUE A WIDESPREAD MISPERCEPTION THAT SOCIAL DIALOGUE WAS TRIED BUT THAT SOCIAL PARTNERS (TRADE UNIONS) FAILED TO REACH AN AGREEMENT NOT SO IN SEVERAL CASES (GREECE,PORTUGAL), A CONCENSUS BETWEEN SOCIAL PARTNERS WAS REACHED TROIKA, HOWEVER, DECIDED IT WAS NOT ENOUGH, IGNORED THE SOCIAL PACT AND PUSHED THROUGH ITS OWN IDEAS OF DEREGULATION

14 FIFTH THING TO GO: TRUST AND SUPPORT FOR DEMOCRACY

15 ...AS WELL AS SUPPORT FOR THE EUROPEAN PROJECT

16 WHAT HAS THE TROIKA TO SHOW FOR ALL OF THIS? HAS MARKET CONFIDENCE BEEN RESTORED? HAVE PUBLIC DEBTS BECOME MORE SUSTAINABLE? HAS ECONOMIC GROWTH POTENTIAL BEEN INCREASED?

17 Spreads only falling after Draghi intervention, not because of fiscal cuts

18 Public debt ratio s continue to increase Gross Public Debt since start of Troika Regime (% of GDP) Portugal Greece Ireland Cyprus

19 HAVE FUTURE GROWTH PROSPECTS BEEN IMPROVED? MASSIVE EMIGRATION OF (MAINLY YOUNG SKILLED) PEOPLE DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR POTENTIAL GROWTH EUROPEAN POLICY MAKERS DO NOT BELIEVE THIS THEMSELVES, SEE THEIR ESTIMATES OF STRUCTURAL UNEMPLOYMENT GREECE 10,1 19,3 PORTUGAL 9,3 15,3 IRELAND 6 12,9 SPAIN 11,7 23,2

20 TO CONCLUDE ONE KEY CONCLUSION: WE HAVE TOMAKE SURE TROIKA CAN NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN IN EUROPE/MONETARY UNION WAKE UP DG EMPLOYMENT AND SOCIAL AFFAIRS APPEAL ON THE ILO AND COE EP TO USE ITS RIGHT TO ACCESS ECJ TO INTRODUCE COMPLAINTS AND TO MAKE SURE EU TREATY AND SOCIAL AQUIS ARE NOT JUST A PIECE OF PAPER SOCIAL RECOVERY PLAN FOR TROIKA COUNTRIES TO REFIX FAIR WAGES ECB OUT SOCIAL PARTNERS IN ESM ADVISORY BOARD

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