SWP. Ageing Societies. Trends, Challenges, Policy Options

Transcription

1 Ageing Societies Trends, Challenges, Policy Options 2nd JEF/DGAP International Symposium How to get out of the crisis? Different approaches in Japan and the EU towards growth 3 June 2014, Berlin Dr Steffen Angenendt Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), Berlin SWP

2 Structure 1. Main demographic trends 2. Five policy challenges 3. Conclusion

3 Germany s Age Structure (1910, 2008, 2060 e ) Source: Sachverständigenrat 2011

4 Population decrease, Germany, e Gap between new-born and death cases Medium scenario, low Medium scenario, high Source: German Federal Statistical Office

5 Population in Germany, e Medium scenario, high Medium scenario, low Source: German Federal Statistical Office

6 Life expectation at birth, Germany, e (in yrs) Age Age Girls Boys Source: German Federal Statistical Office

7 Challenge #1: Increasing dependency ratios & social spending Young- and old-age dependency ratio in Germany, e Total dependency ratio Old-age dependency ratio Young-age dependency ratio Source: German Federal Statistical Office Assumption medium population development scenario; Young age dependency ratio: under 20 yrs old per 100 persons aged 20 to 64, etc.

8 Projected increase of social security expenditures, Germany, e, in b Euro p.a. Education and families Unemployment Health care Pensions Source: Berlin Institute for Population and Development

9 Challenge #2: Shrinking work force Labour Force, Germany, e, in m Source: Bundesagentur für Arbeit, Perspektive 2025

10 Main shortages till 2025 e : Health care workers IT experts Engineers Sales managers Financial experts

11 Challenge #3: Unequal population development, Germany, , in % < to to -5-5 to 0 0 to 5 5 to to 15 >-15 Sources: Federal Statistical Office, Berlin-Institute

12 Challenge #4: Competiveness Source: Population Action International (PAI)

13 Challenge #4: Competiveness Estimated increase of working-age population in TIMBI countries (Turkey, India, Mexico, Brasil, Indonesia (15-59 yrs, 1950 =100) Source: Goldstone

14 Changing income distribution Europe s and North America s share World population Global GDP % 68% % <30% Sources: UNPD, World Population Prospects, World Bank

15 Challenge #5: Migration and integration Migration to and from Germany, Source: Statistisches Bundesamt

16 Age structure and ethnic background, Germany, natives, foreigners, and foreign-born, 2009 (in 1,000) Foreigners Men Foreign-born Germans Native Germans Women Source: Home Office

17 Replacement migration? What would happen by 2050 if Germany......had no immigration?...had moderate immigration?...wanted to keep its population stable?...wanted to keep the number of 15 to 64- year-olds stable?...wanted to keep the old-age quotient stable? Net immigration per year None 200,000 to 240, , , m Population by m 73.3 m 81.7 m 92 m 299 m Increase/decrease compared to % -10 % None +13% +266% Source: United Nations Population Division

18 Ethnic diversity and integration Labor market participation of immigrants, Germany, in m Source: Federal Statistical Office

19 Conclusion Economic, social, political implications of demographic change are not seriously addressed in Germany; still no adequate political, administrative structures on the Federal level. Existing strategies are short-term, limited in scope, and based on the assumption that demographic risks will be managed. German government is not officially promoting migration as a solution, but de facto opened up for more foreign workers. This strategy could backfire: fostering migration without serious public debate on risks and benefits might only give rise to anti-foreigner sentiments and populist drawbacks. Needed: a broad political debate on mid- and long-term demographic risks, on growing disparities between growing and shrinking regions, and on the options and limitations of public policies.

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21 Wie den Fachkräftebedarf bewältigen? Quelle: Bundesagentur für Arbeit, Perspektive 2025 Quelle Sachverständigenrat 2011

22 Handlungsfelder zur Steigerung des Fachkräfteangebots bis 2025, in Mio. Personen Total: 2,7-7,1 Mio. Vollzeitäquivalente Quelle: Bundesagentur für Arbeit, Perspektive 2025

23 Makroökonomische Auswirkungen der Alterung Quelle: Lindh u.a., 2010