, (M. P. Todaro,1985)

Transcription

1 3,,,,,,,,, : ;; ; ;,;,,,,;,,,, (M. P. Todaro,1985),,,,,,,,,,,(,2004 ;,2006 ;, 2007 ;,2007),,,, (NCET) 57

2 2008 2,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 21,;,,,,,, 13, , (2005 ),, (),, ,59. 7 %,17. 8 %,, ,357, 104,80 %( 1) :(2006) (2006) ( ) (), , % ; 20. 2, % , : (1),1/ 5 (2), 40 %,,10 %20 %(3), ,14. 9 % ; 3. 25, % 58

3 1 3 % a b c d e a b c d f a b c d : (1) a b c d % % 2000 (2) e f % (), ( ), %,84 %,10,, ( 2004 y = x , R ;y = x 0. 85, R ), 1, 1. 92,,( 2) ,, 2 % ( ) () , %, %, % % % : (2006) 59

4 , %,2050,23 % (,2007),,,,,,, ( 2 3), 2 3 : (2006) : (2006),, 3, 30 %,,50 % ; 20 %,, 30 % ;20 %,30 % ;, ; ( 3), ( Myrdal G.,1957),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 60 (2005), %, % ;31. 4 %, %,( %) ( %)

5 3 ( ) ; ( ) ; ; ;; ; ; ; ; ; ;; ; ( ) ; ; ; ; ;,,,,,,,,,, ;, ,, () 42 %, , , 52 %21. 1 %, , , 2 507,15 %, 20 % , 3 600, 68,12. 1,2 424, 56 %25. 7 %, ( 4),, : (1) ; ;(2), , 2. 53,2. 28,2. 51,

6 () 2005 GDP %, 15 %,,, (),,,,,,,,,,,,,, (),,, 1.,,,,, ;,;,,, ;,,,,;,,,,, 62 (2006)

7 ,,,,,,,, 2.,,,,,,+ + =,,,, 3.,,,, 3 4.,,,,(,2007) :, (),,,,,,,,, 2 11,,,,, ; 63

8 GDP 60 %80 %,,, 2005, %, %,GDP 2. 8 %, ( 4),70 % 4 :,,, (),,,,,, : 1. (1988) : %, 2. (1993) :1990, 3. (2002) :2000, 4. (1997) : %, 5. (2007) : %, 6. (2006) :(2006), 7. (2006) :(2006), 8. (2006) :(2006), 9. (2005) :(2005), 10. (2006) :(2006), 11. (2005) :(2005), 12. (2006) :(2006), 13. (2007) :, 14. (2007) ::, 15. (2004) :,, (2006) :,, (2007) :,, (2007) :,, Myrdal G. (1957), Economic Theory and Under2Developed Regions. London :Methuen & Co Ltd. 20. Michael P. Todaro (1985), Economic Development I n The T hi rd W orl d. Longman Inc. New York &London. 64 ( : )

9 based on previous researches,which measures population quantity,population quality,population structure,and population momen2 tum. Next,projection pursuit classification model is applied to analyze the population competitiveness of 31 provinces across China. It is found that projection pursuit classification model has a very good reliability and validity in differentiating provinces. The 31 provinces of China can be classified into seven2category according to the projection pursuit classification scores. The overall situation of population competitiveness based on different region schemes is also revealed. The Migration within Beijing2Tianjin2Hebei Metropolitan Area and Integrated Development in Urban and Rural Areas Ye Yumin L i Yanj un N i Ke 57 By analyzing migration characteristics in Beijing2Tianjin2Hebei Metropolitan Area,this paper argues that despite Beijing and Tianjin as the central cities of the area have for a long time benefited from the conglomeration effects of labor and other production factors,the diffusing effects from them to the surrounding have been obstructed by administrative segmentation. The primary task for a harmonious prospect of rural2urban and regional development within B T H metropolitan area is to break the existing adminis2 trative delimitation,in order to include the rural Hebei into the framework of promoting the competitiveness in the metropolitan are2 a. This paper also suggests a strategy to facilitate the process. The Impact of Time Varying Properties on Migration Selectivity :A Perspective from Data Management Tang J ialong 65 Time2varying factors have been attached highly importance in the methodology of migration research. Using the 2000 Chinese population census micro data,this paper presents three methods ( survey time method, partial retroversion method and holistic ret2 roversion),which are different from each other in terms of theoretical implication but closely related in the way of data structure. The variable choice in met hods demonstrates a sharp contrast effect in data structure in t he means and variance of t he variables. Be2 sides,it also alters the strength and significance of independent variables on the dependent variable. The holistic retroversion bene2 fits the research in finding a diverse pattern of educational selectivity for migration other than a uniform one of positive selection, which is consistent with the empirical observation. The Transfer of Land Security Rights,Labor Migration and Eff icient Use of Rural Land Zhang L iangy ue L iu dong 72 Though household responsibility system had resolved rural poverty successfully in China,it hindered the labor migration to ur2 ban areas for not providing rural land transfer rules. The difficulties of t he labor migration are not only due to t he obstacles of t he urban hukou system,but also because of the rules of the rural land use. We therefore argue that the government must carry out the transfer of land security right while reforming the hukou system,and then the rural labor can migrate permanently,and the agricul2 tural land can be used more effectively. Characteristics and Trends of the New Generation Migrants : Survey and Analysis on 10 Villages in Gansu Province Zhang Yongli H uang Zuhui 80 The paper uses the data obtained from 10 villages in Gansu province to compare the characteristics and the tendency between two generations of migrant laborers. The result indicates that the mobility of rural labor in China has entered into a new stage,and the second generation who are born in the reform and opening time is becoming the major component. Their opinions,reasons,be2 havior for migration,and expectation for life have changed greatly. These changes will have profound influences on China s socio2e2 conomic development. An Analysis on the Factors Affecting the Non2agricultural Employment of Rural Married Female Labor in Jiangsu L iu Yan T uo J iqiang 88 This paper is to build a probit model to analyze the factors which affect the non2agricultural employment of rural married fe2 male labor based on t he survey in Jiangsu province. Our result s show t hat t he possibility of women s non2agricultural employment is decreasing with age increase ;well educated women are more likely to have non2agricultural jobs and to enter local enterprises ; skilled women prefer working in urban areas to rural areas ;those whose husbands are engaged in non2agricultural employment have more opportunities to attend non2agricultural employment. Moreover,the ability of absorbing non2agricultural labor from the rural areas in Central and Northern Jiangsu is weaker than that of Southern Jiangsu, so the main approach to non2agricultural jobs for women in t hese areas is to migrate out. 96