CARIM-East Methodological Workshop II. Warsaw, 28 October 2011

Transcription

1 CARIM-East Methodological Workshop II Warsaw, 28 October 2011 The demographic economic database: the state of art, main challenges and next steps Anna Di Bartolomeo

2 Outline of the presentation Some preliminary remarks Emigration section (stock data) Immigration section (stock data) A focus on flow data collection Next steps

3 Some preliminary remarks on the CARIM database: Data are first-hand, authentic statistics that are validated at source Data are obtained from a variety of sources (combining sources)

4 1. Emigration stock most recent data: sources EU MS + Northern American countries: National Statistical Institutes (websites, personal requests) CARIM-E countries National Statistical Institutes (thanks to your contributions) Rest of the world DIOC-E database 2000 round of Census (see Dumont s presentation) Emigration section: the state of art of the database Immigration section Focus on flows data collection Next steps

5 1. Emigration section - stock data Values in thousands 18,000 Stock of immigrants originating in CARIM-E countries by area of residence and according to different definitions of "international migrants", most recent data (circa 2010) 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Criterion used to identify migrants 0 Country of birth Country of citizenship (CARIM-E countries) Country of citizenship (CARIM-E countries) + stateless and citizenship undeclared European Union CARIM East countries North America Rest of the world Source: Various sources of destination countries (CARIM database) Emigration section: the state of art of the database Immigration section Focus on flows data collection Next steps

6 1. Emigration section - stock data Criterion used to define "international migrants" Area of residence Country of birth Country of citizenship (CARIM-E countries) Country of citizenship (CARIM-E countries) + stateless and citizenship undeclared Number % Number % Number % European Union 1, , , CARIM East countries 12, , North America 1, , , Rest of the world 1, , , Grand total 16, , , Source: Various sources of destination countries (CARIM database) Emigration section: the state of art of the database Immigration section Focus on flows data collection Next steps

7 Individual born in Georgia and later moved to the Russian Federation Period of departure How should he be counted today? Country of birth How is he counted? Country of citizenship Before > Non-international immigrant Foreign born (international immigrant) From USSR to RUS citizen (non-international immigrant) After > International immigrant Foreign born (international immigrant) It depends: RUS citizen/nonstatus migrants/foreing citizens Result on migration estimates Country of birth Country of citizenship Overstimation of international immigrants Understimation of international immigrants Emigration section: the state of art of the database Immigration section Focus on flows data collection Next steps

8 1. Emigration section - stock data Stock of immigrants originating in CARIM-E countries by area of residence and CARIM country of origin and according to different definitions of international migrants, most recent data, in 000s (c 2010) 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Country of birth Country of citizenship (CARIM-E countries) 0 Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Georgia Moldova Russian Federation Ukraine Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Georgia Moldova Russian Federation Ukraine Country of origin Source: Various sources of destination countries (CARIM database) Emigration section: the state of art of the database Immigration section Focus on flows data collection Next steps

9 1. Magnitude and destination of emigration Stock of immigrants originating in CARIM-E countries by country of residence and CARIM country of origin and according to country of birth (all countries) and citizenship (CARIM-E countries), most recent data, in 000s (c 2010) 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, % of the resident population at home 5.0% 9.8% 7.2% 10.1% 2.5% Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Georgia Moldova Russian Federation 1.1% 3.5% Ukraine European Union CARIM East countries North America Rest of the world Source: Various sources of destination countries (CARIM database) Emigration section: the state of art of the database Immigration section Focus on flows data collection Next steps

10 1. Magnitude and destination of emigration Stock of immigrants originating in CARIM-E countries residing in the most important receiving countries, Source: Various sources of destination countries (CARIM database) Emigration section: the state of art of the database Immigration section Focus on flows data collection Next steps

11 Stock (in thousands) Sex ratio (M/F) 1. Magnitude and destination of emigration Stock of immigrants originating in CARIM-E countries residing in selected countries (USA, Germany, Italy and Spain) by sex (1st axis) and sex ratio (2nd axis), ,200 1, Males Females Sex ratio 0 Source: Various sources of destination countries (CARIM database) Emigration section: the state of art of the database Immigration section Focus on flows data collection Next steps

12 1. National Statistical Institutes sources: how to get data? Country time-series some examples: Netherlands: population Register ( Germany: central register of foreigners: to do data queries, registration is requested (language: German) Italy: resident population/permits to stay recent data ( old data (personal request) Spain: population register (irregular migrants are included) ( UK: Annual Population Survey micro-data (personal request) US: American Community Survey micro-data (IPUMS-US) Emigration section: the state of art of the database Immigration section Focus on flows data collection Next steps

13 1. CARIM-E emigrants profile Stock of immigrants originating in CARIM-E countries residing in OECD countries by CARIM country of origin, level of education (a) and activity status (b), circa 2000 a) Activity status b) Level of education Source: DIOC-E database (available in CARIM database) Emigration section: the state of art of the database Immigration section Focus on flows data collection Next steps

14 1. CARIM-E emigrants profile Stock of immigrants originating in CARIM-E countries residing in OECD countries by level of education and occupational sector (in %), circa 2000 Level of education Highly skilled occupations Occupation Medium skilled occupations Low skilled occupations Low level Medium level High level Mismatch: Underqualified 51.7 Matching 26.1 Mismatch: Overqualified Overqualification is particularly high for Russian, Moldovan and Georgian emigrants! Source: DIOC-E database (available in CARIM database) Emigration section: the state of art of the database Immigration section Focus on flows data collection Next steps

15 1. Main challenges - emigration section Update of emigrants characteristics (profile) Obtaining time series on CARIM-E emigrants (evolution) Trying to estimate irregular migrants Emigration section: main challenges Immigration section Focus on flows data collection Next steps

16 1. Next steps emigration section Combining different sources Our side: Continuining in providing first hand data collected at the destination Your side: Continuining in providing first hand data collected: at the origin (LFSs, Census, specific household surveys) at the destination (Consular records) Emigration section: next steps Immigration section Focus on flows data collection Next steps

17 Moldovan citizens residing in Italy according to Moldovan and Italian statistics (in 000s), Year of regularization in Italy Moldovan statistics Italian statistics Source: Population Register (Italy) and Labor Force Survey (Moldova) (available in CARIM database) Emigration section: next steps Immigration section Focus on flows data collection Next steps

18 Source on CARIM-E emigrants: who counts? Institutions of destination countries Institutions of origin countries Sources Census Population Registers Household surveys Consulates Advantages Updated Many info Partial recovery of emigrants residing in countries which do not publish or simply collect data on immigrants (see e.g. Gulf Countries) Partial recovery of irregular emigrants Limitations Not available for some countries Scarcely comparable No info on irregular migrants Registration is voluntary Source: for an extended review of this topic, see Fargues, 2006 Emigration section: next steps Immigration section Focus on flows data collection Next steps

19 2. Immigration section - stock data Foreign nationals 1,330,191 Stateless 531,257 % of the resident population Citizenship not indicated 1,485,959 Source: Population census and Labour Force Survey (Moldova) (CARIM database) Emigration section Immigration section: the state of art of the database Focus on flows data collection Next steps

20 2. Main challenges - immigration section Major problem on the definition of «international migrants» (country of birth vs country of citizenship) Impressive presence of stateless and people not declaring their citizenship No source other than Census is currently available on the stock of immigrants (except for Moldova) Emigration section Immigration section: main challenges Focus on flows data collection Next steps

21 2. Next steps - immigration section (+) Combining several variables in order to detect the real size of immigrants (year of arrival for foreign born population and acquisitions of citizenship for foreign citizens) (+) Combining different sources (regularizations..) (+) The role of Population Register (long-term challenge) (?) Using flow data Emigration section Immigration section: next steps Focus on flows data collection Next steps

22 CARIM-E country Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Georgia Moldova Russia Federation Ukraine Population Register: the state of art Defined by law but not implemented yet No No Defined by law but not implemented yet Yes No No Next steps (your side): New explanatory note on the state of art of the Population Register in each of CARIM country! Emigration section Immigration section: next steps Focus on flows data collection Next steps

23 3. A focus on flow data collection in CARIM-E countries: DATA COMPARABILITY CARIM country Place of permanent residence (de iure population) Place of temporary stay (de facto population) Time criterion to separate place of residence and place of stay Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Georgia "..a territory where a person have a right to reside and which is declared No defined as a place of residence" "..a house, a flat, or an official dwelling apartment, hostel, retirement and invalids home, where a competent person resides for a long period of time as a owner or by a rent contract" "..where a person resides temporarily - a hotel, sanatorium, tourist centre, hospital, etc. or a dwelling (of his/her own, of a relative, etc.) that is not the place of residence" "..is a location (address) of "..is a location (address) of premises or facilities for temporary premises, ownership, disposition accommodation, ownership, and (or) use of which has arisen to a disposition and (or) use of which citizen on the grounds established has arisen to a citizen on the by legislative acts, and in which he grounds established by legislative lives permanently or primarily" acts, and in which he temporarily stays" "..a place that has been choosen for residence. Minors are registered in the place of residence of their parents" Not defined 6 months 2 months (1 for foreigners) Since 2008: 1 year Before 2008: no criterion 3 months Moldova "..a place where a person lives permanently" Not defined 6 months Russia Federation Ukraine "..a dwelling space at the address of which the person is registered (permanently)." (for foreigners) "..dwelling that is not the same as the place of permanent residence a place where a person resides, and any dwelling, official apartment or an institution where a foreigner stays or by an address of which the foreigner must be registered (temporarily)" (for foreigners) "..an administrative territorial unit where a person resides for 6 months and more within a year" + "..a place "..an administrative territorial unit where a person permanently or where a person resides for less than predominantly lives as an owner, 6 months within a year" under the terms of the tenancy contract or under other statutory terms" No criterion 6 months Emigration section Immigration section Focus on flows data collection Next steps

24 3. A focus on flow data collection in CARIM-E countries: DATA COMPARABILITY Migration flows between CARIM-E countries in the period (source: statistics of countries highlighted in red) Table A Country of destination Country of origin Belarus Moldova Russia Ukraine Belarus Moldova Russian Federation Ukraine Table B Country of destination Country of origin Belarus Moldova Russia Ukraine Belarus Moldova Russian Federation Ukraine Emigration section Immigration section Focus on flows data collection Next steps

25 3. A focus on flow data collection in CARIM-E countries: DATA COMPARABILITY Migration flows between CARIM-E countries in the period (source: statistics of countries highlighted in red) Table C Country of origin Country of destination Belarus Moldova Russia Ukraine Belarus Moldova Russian Federation Ukraine Table D Country of origin Country of destination Belarus Moldova Russia Ukraine Belarus Moldova Russian Federation Ukraine Emigration section Immigration section Focus on flows data collection Next steps

26 3. A focus on flow data collection in CARIM-E countries: DATA RELIABILITY Understimation of migrant flows EMIGRATION: lack of incentives to de-register IMMIGRATION: Registrations in a place of stay are not counted by statistics and the majority of migrants is supposed to be registered in a place of stay, because: Russia: no time criterion; Visa-free agreements with most of the CIS countries result in non-registration of a certain part of migrants. Ukraine: existing collisions in legal norms and few incentives to register All countries: necessity to have a residence permit to register in place of residence Emigration section Immigration section Focus on flows data collection Next steps

27 Next steps: what need to be developed more on the database.. Collecting consular records (emigration stock) Focusing on tables which include acquisitions of citizenships and year of arrival (immigration stock) Providing us with long time-series statistics on flows in order to verify comparability (detailed annexed notes are of a strict importance) (flow) Providing us with a separate note on the state of art of the creation of a Population Register if relevant (flow and stock) As a whole, great attention needs to be pay to the annexed notes of the tables Emigration section Immigration section Focus on flows data collection Next steps

28 Info to be necessarily included into the annexed note of each table Source Institution which provides data Definitions (of migrants and of the reference population) Sampling methodology procedures Imputation procedures Other relevant info Emigration section Immigration section Focus on flows data collection Next steps

29 Example of Belarus (stock) 1. Source: Population Census 2. Definitions (a) Population residing in the Republic of Belarus include permanent resident people (registered in a place of residence, see note b) and temporary stayers (registered in a place of stay, see note c).. (b) Place of residence is a (c) Place of stay is a.. (d) Attained level of education includes: General primary (ISCED-1) persons having [ ]; General basic (ISCED-2) persons, having [ ], etc. 3. Institution which provides data National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus.. 4. Data collection methodology: census.. 5. Other relevant info a) Period of data coverage: 0 hour October 14, b) Data availability: Data are available in [ ], see Emigration section Immigration section Focus on flows data collection Next steps

30 Example of Russia (flow) 1. Source: Federal Statistical Service of Russia (Rosstat) 2. Definitions The FMS od Russia does not operate with the terms 'migrants' / 'immigrants' / 'emigrants' but rather 'arrivals' (number of persons arrived) / 'departures' (number of persons departed) / 'foreign nationals'. In this table, 'number of persons arrived' is corresponding to number of foreign nationals who were registered during 2010 in a place of residence in Russia for permanent residence; 'number of persons departed' is corresponding to number of foreign nationals who were deregisteded during 2010 from a place of residence in Russia for permanent residence in another country. Net migration is the difference between the two variables. 3. Institution which provides data Data is initially provided by the Federal Migration Service of Russia (FMS). It is aggregated [ ] and published.. 4. Data collection methodology: Data is collected on the basis of information on registration / deregistration of foreign nationals in a place of residence in the Russian Federation which is accompanied by filling statistical registration forms 5. Other relevant info Data is published in [ ], See: Emigration section Immigration section Focus on flows data collection Next steps