HOUSING PRICES. International Comparative Analysis. BDO Consulting Israel September 2017

Transcription

1 HOUSING PRICES International Comparative Analysis BDO Consulting Israel September 2017

2

3 OVERVIEW BDO Consulting Israel conducted a comparative analysis of the housing markets among eight observed countries. The purpose of this analysis is to gain insight into the relationship between the increase in households to dwellings completed and how the market trend in each country impacts housing prices. We believed that a shortage in dwelling stock would be associated with an increase in housing prices, and vice versa. Yigal Toledano Head of BDO Consulting Israel

4 THE COUNTRY COMPARISON ANALYZES THE FOLLOWING FACTORS: Overall number of dwellings & households by country. Increase in dwelling stock to increase in households per country. The surplus or deficiency in dwellings completed when compared to the increase in households ( hereinafter Gap ). The criteria for choosing countries were: Population between 4.5 and 20 million. GDP per capita above $25,000. International credit rating of A or higher. The countries presented to the right all met the above criteria and had sufficient data in their statistical databases.

5 COUNTRIES SELECTED Country Population (Millions) Number of households (Millions) Number of dwellings (Millions) Per capita GDP (USD) Austria ,775 Denmark ,989 Finland ,311 Israel ,728 New Zealand ,808 Netherlands ,300 Norway ,400 Sweden ,580 Source: World Bank, Global Credit Portal, National Statistics Agencies

6 CONCLUSIONS Analysis of the eight countries led to the following observations between : countries (Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Israel) experienced a Gap deficit along with an increase to the real housing prices. countries (Austria, New Zealand) experienced a Gap surplus, yet experienced increases in the real housing price. It should be noted both of these countries receive heavy interest from investors. One country (Netherlands) experienced a Gap deficit while experiencing a decrease to the real housing prices. One country (Finland) experienced a Gap surplus while experiencing a decrease in the real housing price over the time period.

7 In conclusion, five out of the eight countries with a negative gap differential in dwellings completed and increase in households experienced an increase in the real housing price In order to further understand why the relationship does not always hold true, one needs to consider other factors that influence housing prices. These include interest rates, foreign investment, employment rates etc Dwellings Increase in Completed Households (K) (K) Gap Differential (K) % change in real housing price Supports Hypothesis? Denmark 148 (48) 6.5% Yes Finland % Yes Netherlands (44) -13.3% No Norway (28) 21.1% Yes Sweden (78) 36.9% Yes Austria % No Israel (39) 38.6% Yes New Zealand % No Source: National Statistic Agencies

8 HOUSING PRICES INCREASE IN HOUSEHOLDS Immigration had a heavy influence on the increase in households over the past three years, among the comparison group. The Nordic block experienced large influxes of immigrants, mainly from the Middle East, as a result of relatively lenient policies. According to the Swedish Migration Agency, Sweden received 160,000 asylum applications in 2015 alone, the second highest in Europe, in absolute numbers. During this three year period, Sweden had the largest overall increase, with a 2.07% average annual increase in number the number of households. Norway and Finland ranked fourth and fifth in asylum receipts per capita in 2015, among EU member states. Denmark, while having the most restrictive immigration policies in the Nordic block, had the eighth highest per capita asylum receipts in 2015, among EU member states. Israel experienced the largest overall growth rate

9 in households, with a 2.07% increase in number of households over the time period, and third in overall household additions with thousand during the same period. Immigration and a high birth rate, especially compared to Europe, over the last few decades have both contributed to Israel s increase in households. With the largest overall population, the Netherlands had the second largest increase in households, during the three year period with 152,000 additions. Nevertheless, the total dwellings completed lagged behind the increase in population. The country is currently experiencing a housing shortage that is expected to peak in 2018, as it will take time for the relevant parties to properly respond to the shortage. Austria s households have increased by 126 thousand, an annual increase of 1.12%. In the Pacific, while New Zealand has added 56.9 thousand households (6th place), it ranks 4th in overall increase, with a household growth rate of 1.13% over the last three years. INCREASE IN HOUSEHOLDS (THOUSANDS) , , , ,383 90,003 65,224 56,900 39,524 Sweden Netherlands Israel Austria Norway Denmark New Zealand Finland Source: National Statistic Agencies INCREASE IN HOUSEHOLDS 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2.2% 2.0% 1.2% 1.4% 1.5% 0.8% 1.0% 1.3% 1.3% 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.7% 0.7% 0.2% Israel Norway Sweden New Zealand Austria Denmark Netherlands Finland Source: National Statistic Agencies

10 DWELLING STOCK In order to assess the health and stability of the housing market, a country s dwelling stock should move in lock-step with the movement in households. The below graph portrays the number of dwellings completed in the selected countries between : DWELLING STOCK (MILLIONS) % % % 1.20% % % % % 0.70% 0.80% % 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% New Zealand Ireland Norway Israel Denmark Finland Austria Sweden Netherlands CAGR Source: National Statistic Agencies

11 COMMENTARY ISRAEL NETHERLANDS AUSTRIA SWEDEN FINLAND NORWAY DENMARK NEW ZEALAND In comparing the selected countries from , Israel had the greatest CAGR in dwelling stock, increasing by 1.55% over the three year period with 2.49 million dwellings reported by the Central Bureau of Statistics, in Israel has both high levels of immigration and large family units, which put constant pressure on the housing market. Although, the Netherlands has largest overall number of dwellings, it currently faces a housing shortage with a gap of about 79.6 thousand dwellings. The gap expected to peak at 200 thousand houses in 2018 ( Housing Shortage in Netherlands to peak in 2018, Europe Real Estate). With the third most dwellings as of 2016, Austria experienced a CAGR in its dwelling stock of 1.05%, the second largest increase from In 2016, Sweden had the second highest number of dwellings among the selected countries. The country is currently building at a rapid pace in order to meet housing shortages. Finland s dwelling stock increased by 0.8% over the past three years. Currently, Finland is the only Nordic country that is not considered in a housing crisis. Norway has experienced an increase in dwelling stock at a CAGR of 1.2% over the three year period. The housing market is influenced by increased investor appetite in the housing market, as investments in Norwegian oil & gas are declining. Denmark experienced a moderate increase in dwelling stock, with a CAGR of 0.49% over the three year period. Denmark s rapid rural-urban migration puts a tremendous strain on housing stock in large cities. In addition, extensive zoning regulations may restrict real estate development. New Zealand had the smallest population and number of dwellings. New Zealand also experienced increased amounts of immigration, which led to increased building in the country. Dwellings have increased by a CAGR of 1.32% over the time period with 1.8 million dwellings reported in 2016.

12 DWELLING COMPLETED DWELLINGS COMPLETED (Thousands) Denmark Norway New Zealand Finland Sweden Israel Austria Netherlands Source: National Statistic Agencies

13 COMMENTARY NETHERLANDS NEW ZEALAND ISRAEL DENMARK FINLAND NORWAY SWEDEN AUSTRIA The Netherlands experienced a CAGR of 14.16% in dwellings completed over the time period, with an increase of 10.5 thousand additional houses completed in 2016 compared to This jump indicates that the relevant parties are responding to the current housing shortage in the country. Dwellings completed have risen by 10.11% over the past three years. New Zealand is responding to a multitude of challenges that include immigration and foreign investment that are increasing housing prices. Israel has increased its dwellings completed by 1.84%. However, the dwellings completed have not held pace with the increase in households, as demonstrated in the next page. In conjunction with a decrease in stock, and the overall difficulty in allocating land for development in large cities, Denmark experienced the smallest increase in dwellings completed, with a CAGR of 0.92% over the time period. Dwellings completed have grown at a CAGR 1.55% over the last three years. Increased housing demand is a result of domestic demand and foreign investors. Dwellings completed have grown at a CAGR of 2.28% the time period. Norway faces similar challenges to that of Denmark and Finland. Although, Sweden experienced similar strains on housing supply as its Nordic neighbors, housing completions have boomed in the last three years, with 41,250 dwellings completed in 2016, a CAGR of 18.93%. However, despite the rapid increase, Sweden still faces a housing shortage, as depicted in the following page. Dwellings completed have risen by 1.73% over the last three years. As such, Austria has an ample supply of housing.

14 REAL PRICES Finally, the below table displays the overall trends in real housing prices (with a price index of 2010 as a baseline): REAL HOUSING PRICE INDEX WITH 2010 = Real Housing Prices Denmark Finland Netherlands Norway Sweden Austria Israel New Zeland Source: OECD Four out of the eight countries mentioned above with dwelling gaps to increase in households, have experienced increases in real housing prices, with some having the highest overall real housing prices.

15 COMMENTARY NEW ZEALAND ISRAEL SWEDEN NORWAY DENMARK NETHERLANDS AUSTRIA FINLAND The largest increase in real housing prices over the time period, New Zeland actually ranks second in the world in real home prices increasing. The country experiences rising immigration and swelling home prices especially in Auckland. The second largest increase in real housing prices over the time period, Israel ranks third in the world in real home price increase. Israeli home prices have been rising due to low interest rates, strong foreign and domestic investment, as well as increasing populations. With the second largest number of immigrants in Europe over the last few years, coupled with severe housing shortage where half a million people are on waiting lists to receive a flat, Sweden has the third highest increase in real housing prices in the survey, rising from in 2010 to 137 in Norway, ranking fourth in asylum seekers, has the fifth highest increase in real housing prices in The acute housing shortage in the cities has led to an overall increase in housing prices in the last few years. While the Netherlands has experienced a decrease in real housing prices from , it has experienced an increase from 81 to 87 index points between Austria has the fifth highest increase in real housing prices in 2016 due to insecurities caused by the financial crisis, unusually low interest rates and fear of inflation. As a result of these factors, real estate has become increasingly important for investors looking for returns. Real estate has become the most popular form of investment in Austria over the past few years, with a record of over 120,000 transactions in Housing prices have remained stable overall from , with the smallest standard deviation among the analyzed countries.

16 DWELLINGS COMPLETED VS. INCREASE IN HOUSEHOLDS Dwellings Completed Vs. Increase in Households % (48) % % (44) % (28) 37% (78) % % 320 (39) 41% % 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% Denmark Finland Netherlands Norway Sweden Austria ISRAEL New Zealand Dwellings completed Increase in Households Gap % Change In Real Housong Proce Source: National Statistic Agencies, OCED

17 COMMENTARY In order to determine how robust a country s ability to meet the increased demand for housing, the number of annual dwellings completed should be closely correlated with the increase in households. Five countries have experienced a deficit in the dwellings completed versus increase in households: SWEDEN DENMARK NETHERLANDS ISRAEL NORWAY Experienced a gap of 78,207 dwellings compared to increase in households. Currently, nine out of ten Swedes live in a municipality facing housing shortages. Experienced a gap of 48,315 dwellings compared to increase in households. Experienced a gap of 43,896 dwellings compared to increase in households. Experienced a gap of 39,058 dwellings compared to increase in households. Experienced a gap of 27,877 dwellings compared to increase in households. Three countries experienced a surplus of dwellings completed versus increase In households: FINLAND AUSTRIA NEW ZEALAND Unlike to other Nordic countries, Finland had a surplus of dwellings completed over the past six years. Austria had the largest surplus of dwellings completed compared to increase in households. Between , Austria completed an annual average of 48,461 dwellings. This is a notable increase compared to an annual average of 43,461 dwellings completed between In the past couple of years, real home prices growth in New Zealand has been of the highest in the world.

18 BDO Israel is a dynamic and business oriented accounting and consulting firm ranking amongst the five leading firms in Israel. Its part of the greater international BDO network which ranks worldwide as a pioneer in the accounting industry. The firm was established in 1983 and currently employs approximately 1,400 employees, including affiliates spreading over 8 branches in Israel. The firm operates business services desks in CIS Europe, India and China. BDO provides Audit, Tax and Consulting services, according to our client's desires and needs, operating in private and public sectors and serves over 300 domestic and international publicly traded companies and trust funds. Our diligence and professionalism enable the firm to undertake a multitude of tasks, while providing the fastest service at the highest standard. Yigal Toledano Partner Head of BDO Consulting Israel yigalt@bdo.co.il Moti Dattelkramer Partner Head of Corporate Finance practice BDO Consulting Israel motid@bdo.co.il Rotem Silberberg Manager Corporate Finance BDO Consulting Israel rotems@bdo.co.il

19

20 CONTACT US