Global Publishing Markets Mapping data, developments, and patterns of the publishing industry worldwide.

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1 Global Publishing Markets Mapping data, developments, and patterns of the publishing industry worldwide. A study for the International Publishers Association (IPA), supported by the London Book Fair and BookExpo America. Presented at the London Book fair, April 16, 2012

2 The goal of the survey Maping & understanding the role and the value of books and publishing in the global knowledge society

3 The guidelines of the survey A global survey of publishing markets By country and By region Ultimately: A map of global publishing Develop a grid for comparing and understanding the publishing industry: The market dynamics The differences between countries and regions The cultural background The wider context

4 What data? The key indicators Market indicators: Publishers annual revenues Market size at consumer value Number of titles published (new & re-editions) Number of copies printed Imports & exports

5 What data? The key indicators: References : Number of titles by million inhabitants of a country GDP per capita Exports & Imports

6 What data? The key indicators: Contexts: Number of titles by million inhabitants of a country Import / export balance GDP per capita Purchasing power parity

7 The sources Methodology: Data sources: 1. Publishers' revenues 2. Market value (at consumer prices) 3. Titles published (new & re-editions) 4. Selected exports data Professional organisations and government Professional media Expert estimates Projections & cross referencing

8 The status quo This preliminary version ( Beta ): 50+ countries Ca. 50 bn of publishers revenues Ca. 80 bn of market value 17 markets with over 1 bn value

9 Findings 2012: Samples & case studies Increase the number of countries Starting to record a history with data Profile regions (e.g. Asia, Arab countries) Compare sets of markets (e.g.emerging markets) Compare revenue developments & production statistics in US, Europe Use exports to map data poor countries Chart exports against domestic production Develop historic profiles

10 The largest book markets (01) Country Publishers revenues (m ) Market value (m ) Titles per 1 m inhabitants USA PR China Germany Japan UK France India (est. 2007) Italy

11 The largest book markets (02) Country Publishers revenues (m ) Market value (m ) Titles per 1 m inhabitants Spain Korea Brazil Russia Canada Australia (prel.) Poland Taiwan Netherlands

12 US & large EU markets: Sales Country Year Publ's Revenues (m domest. currency) Market Value (m domest. currency) Currency USA US$ US$ Germany EUR EUR UK GBP GBP France EUR EUR Italy EUR EUR Spain EUR EUR

13 US & large EU markets: Production Country Year Number of New Titles New Titles per 1 m Inhabitants USA Germany UK France Italy Spain

14 EU small markets: Sales Country Year Publ's Rev s (m domest. Curr.) Market Value (m domest. Curr.) Currency Belgium EUR EUR PubRev's / MarkVal m Hungary HUF *** / HUF 114 / 226 Netherlands EUR Poland EUR mzloty 697 / 1123 Slovenia EUR EUR

15 EU small markets: Production Country Year Belgium 2010 Number of New Titles New Titles per 1 m Inhabitants Hungary Netherlands Poland Slovenia Greece Serbia

16 Emerging Markets: Sales Country Year Publ's Rev s (m Domestic currency) Market Value (m Domestic currency) Currency Brazil m R$ m R$ China RMB RMB Russia USD USD USD

17 Emerging Markets: Production Country Year Number of New Titles New Titles per 1 m Inhabitants Brazil China (new) 245 ( new+reed.) Russia

18 Regional overview: Asia Country Year Pub rev s (m, local curr.) Market value (m local currency) Currency Pub Rev s / Market (m ) Number of titles published Number of titles per million inhab s PR China mrmb India US$ Japan my my S. Korea mwon mwon Taiwan mus$ NTUS$ Thailand mbaht Vietnam mvnd

19 Top global export nations (m local curr.) Target % UK World ,42% US World (- Can, UK) ,97% France World (07) ,5% Spain World %

20 Exports INTO emerging markets (local curr.) Target % UK Brazil ,61% US Brazil ,67% FR Brazil UK China ,13% US China ,62% FR China UK India ,99% US India ,13% South UK ,51% Korea South US ,82% Korea UK Malaysia ,15% US Malaysia ,27%

21 UK & US Exports into selected emerging markets (in ) ,00% ,00% 140,00% 120,00% 100,00% 80,00% ,00% 40,00% 20,00% 0,00% -20,00% 2005 ( ) 2011 ( ) % in ( )

22 UK & US Exports into selected emerging markets (in ) ,00% ??? 160,00% 140,00% 120,00% ,00% 80,00% 60,00% ,00% 20,00% 0,00% - -20,00% 2005 ( ) 2011 ( ) % in ( )

23 UK & US Exports into Arab countries (in ) 300,00% 250,00% 200,00% 150,00% 100,00% 50,00% 0,00% 2010/2011 ( ) % ( )

24 UK & US Exports into Arab countries (in )!!! 300,00% 250,00% 200,00% 150,00% 100,00% 50,00% 0,00% 2010/2011 ( ) % ( )

25 France France Germany Germany Netherlands Netherlands Sweden Sweden Spain Spain US / UK imports into EU main markets ,00% 60,00% 50,00% 40,00% 30,00% 20,00% 10,00% 0,00% -10,00% -20,00% -30,00% % ( ) UK US UK US UK US UK US UK US

26 France France Germany Germany Netherlands Netherlands Sweden Sweden Spain Spain US / UK imports into EU main markets ,00% 60,00% 50,00% 40,00% 30,00% 20,00% 10,00% 0,00% -10,00% -20,00% -30,00% % ( ) UK US UK US UK US UK US UK US

27 Country case study India Unique market environment: Strong role of English Strong market presence of UK publishers Many local languages High share of educational (90%?) over trade (10?) Prominent role of the Indian government in educational No official data Divide between private & public sector High fragmentation Patterns of emerging market (BRIC) New global players not yet arrived (e.g. Amazon) Imminent change by new game changing factors 60$ tablet (mid 2012) Flipkart

28 Country case study: Arab countries 300 m Arabic speakers, BUT High fragmentation by country Low literacy Low prestige of reading Low penetration of knowledge drivers Pragmatic constraints Censorship Political instability Piracy Lack of distribution infrastructure No data available, except: Some production Ca. 15,000 new titles & reeditions per yr. (est., excl. Maghreb) Imports Contraditory developments Growth of imports Decline of domestic sales 2 highly divergent trajectories: Gulf & Saudi Arabia All other Arab countries Drivers of change: Emergence of a (small) media savy elite Mobile reading English reading

29 Outlook Most wanted indicators & definitions Publishers revenues Market value Background on specific market features (pricing policies, government involvement esp. sn education, ave. prices trade) Import & export Number of new titles Number of copies sold Next steps in data research and in developing context : Broaden country base Develop data history Connect data by regions and clusters Introduce general economic indicators (GDP, PPP) Develop broader, reliable narrative

30 Partners Sponsors IPA London Book Fair BookExpo America Input partners National publishers associations Fellow experts Trade media

31 Thank you! Feedback and corrections are highly welcome! Contact:

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