DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC STATISTICS

Transcription

1 DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC STATISTICS ABOUT IMMIGRATION IN SASKATCHEWAN Prepared for the: Association for Financial Professionals Regina March 17, 2016 Doug Elliott Sask Trends Monitor th Avenue Regina, Saskatchewan S4N 1H

2 OUTLINE Terminology Impact on Demographics Historical patterns Recent trends Country of origin Age Labour Market Participation Income Trends Age Sex Duration Category The material was prepared by Doug Elliott from QED Information Systems Inc., a Regina based consulting firm and the publisher of Sask Trends Monitor. Unless otherwise indicated, these data are from Statistics Canada but the estimates and projections are the responsibility of Sask Trends Monitor. The data are current as of March Some figures will be revised in future releases. March 17,

3 TERMINOLOGY The term immigrant is generally used to describe those who are permanent residents of Canada but who were not born in Canada. Many but not all immigrants will eventually become Canadian citizens. The official term is landed immigrant. Non-permanent residents were not born in Canada but are temporarily living in the country. Included are: foreign students; temporary foreign workers; refugee claimants; and a handful of diplomatic residents. Many non-permanent residents will eventually become landed immigrants. The term foreign-born is sometimes used to describe landed immigrants and non-permanent residents. Unless otherwise indicated, the statistics in this material cover only immigrants. March 17,

4 MORE TERMINOLOGY Immigrants come to Canada under a number of different programs. The three main ones are describe below. The Family Class allows landed immigrants to bring their immediate family to Canada. There are a number of different kinds of economic immigrants. The most common for Saskatchewan are those who come under the Saskatchewan Immigrant Nominee Program. Refugees are those, like the Syrians, who are escaping persecution, war or severe human rights abuses. There are quotas for each of these categories. March 17,

5 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS

6 LONG TERM TRENDS 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Immigrants and Non-Permanent Residents in Saskatchewan, Percent of Total Population 1911 Pop = 492,000 Immigrants = 49.5% 2011 Pop = 1.1 million Immigrants = 7.6% Canada and Saskatchewan were both, of course, settled by immigrants. When the 1911 census was conducted, one half of the province s 492,000 residents were born outside of Canada, the equivalent of 244,000 people. The proportion declined steadily to 2001 when there were 51,000 foreign-born residents of Saskatchewan, 5.3% of the population. In 2011, there were 69,000 immigrants and 8,000 nonpermanent residents in the province. 0% The proportion will have increased since March 17,

7 INTERPROVINCIAL COMPARISON Canada Nfld NB PEI NS Sask North Que Immigrants as Percent of Total Population, % 1.8% 3.9% 5.2% 5.3% 6.8% 6.9% 12.6% In spite of the recent growth in Saskatchewan, the province had fewer immigrants than most other provinces in The same is true if one looks only at recent immigrants those who came to Canada between 2006 and In 2011, 2.7% of Saskatchewan residents were recent immigrants compared with the national average of 3.5%. Man 15.7% Alta 18.1% BC Ont 27.6% 28.5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% March 17,

8 RESIDENCE WITHIN SASKATCHEWAN Immigrants as Percent of Total Population, 2011 Saskatchewan 6.8% Immigrants tend to live in the larger urban centres in the province. Other Saskatchewan Yorkton Prince Albert Estevan 2.9% 3.6% 4.3% 4.4% Recent Immigrants (after 2006) Other Immigrants More than one in ten residents of the Regina and Saskatoon metropolitan areas are immigrants. Recent immigrants are more widely distributed among the smaller urban centres. Moose Jaw North Battleford Lloydminster (Sask) 5.5% 6.1% 6.5% Looked at another way, about three-quarters of recent immigrants lived in the Regina or Saskatoon metropolitan areas in Swift Current 7.9% Regina 10.5% Saskatoon 10.7% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% March 17,

9 TRENDS IN IMMIGRATION AFTER ,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 Direct Immigration Flows to Saskatchewan Saskatchewan introduced the Saskatchewan Immigrant Nominee Program (SINP), initially as a pilot project, in The flow of immigrants to Saskatchewan increased dramatically from the mid- 2000s onward. The number of immigrants coming to Saskatchewan after 2011 has averaged more than 10,000 per year. 6,000 This is the main reason for the province s growing population. 4,000 2,000 In 2015/16 the Syrian refugees will add approximately 1,000 to these flows / / / / / / / / /15 July to June: March 17,

10 NON-PERMANENT RESIDENTS 20,000 Number of Non-Permanent Residents in Saskatchewan About one-half of nonpermanent residents are temporary foreign workers. 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 The number of non-permanent residents declined in 2015 because of restrictions to the temporary foreign worker program. There are, however, an increasing number of foreign students in the province. 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, as of July March 17,

11 TYPE OF PROGRAM 12,000 10,000 8,000 Flows to Saskatchewan by Type of Program Economic immigrants Family class Refugees Virtually all of the recent immigration to the province has been among economic immigrants, a category that includes the SINP. 6,000 4,000 2, Calendar Years March 17,

12 COUNTRY OF ORIGIN 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 Flows to Saskatchewan by Country of Origin Asia and Pacific Europe & USA Africa and the Middle East All others In the period from 2006 to 2011, the single largest country of origin for Saskatchewan immigrants was the Philippines. Detailed data are not available after 2011 but the vast majority of recent immigrants are from Asian countries. 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Calendar Years March 17,

13 AGE DISTRIBUTION 25% Age Distributions of Immigrants Recent immigrants are much younger, on average, than other Saskatchewan residents. 20% 15% 10% immigrants provincial population More than one-half (56%) of the immigrants in the twelve months ending in July 2015 were in the 20 to 39 age group. The proportion is near 80% if you include their children. This has had a dramatic impact on the age structure of the province s population and is partly responsible for the increase in the number of school-aged children. 5% 0% plus March 17,

14 ECONOMIC IMPACTS

15 LABOUR MARKET ACTIVITY -EMPLOYMENT Recent Immigrants (in Canada less than 5 years) Other immigrants Employment Growth, 2010 to Employment grew by 42,700 between 2010 and 2015 the equivalent of more than 8,000 jobs per year. The majority of the employment growth (75%) was among immigrants and non-permanent residents. The proportions are still small. Canada-born residents accounted for 87% of employment in Non-Permanent residents employment in thousands Born in Canada ,000 8,000 12,000 16,000 20,000 March 17,

16 LABOUR MARKET ACTIVITY EMPLOYMENT RATES Recent Immigrants (in Canada less than 5 years) Employment Rates in 2015, 25 to 54 Years of Age 80.9% In the primary labour market age group, 25 to 54 years of age, the employment rate among immigrants is almost as high as it is for those born in Canada. Other immigrants 82.6% The low employment rates among non-permanent residents will be because of the large number of students and refugee claimants in this category. Non-Permanent residents 73.2% Born in Canada 85.7% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% March 17,

17 EMPLOYMENT EARNINGS $50,000 $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 Average Employment Income Among All Immigrants in Saskatchewan constant $2013 Statistics Canada uses income tax records to track income for immigrants over time. These figures represent the average employment income before taxes. The averages include only those with at least some employment income and are adjusted for inflation. Immigrants who landed in Canada before the mid 2000s had above-average employment incomes. Those who arrived later have incomes below the average. $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 Provincial Average All immigrants Year Landed in Canada The factors underlying this trend are complex. Recent immigrants may not have had a chance to find suitable employment. The nature of immigration has changed over time. March 17,

18 INCOME VS. YEARS IN CANADA $75,000 Average Employment Income Among Immigrants in Saskatchewan, 2013 This looks at employment income of Saskatchewan immigrants in 2013 according to the time they have spent living in Canada. $65,000 $55,000 SINP Principal Applicant provincial average $45,000 There is a dramatic increase in incomes during the first few years of residence. After that, increases are more gradual and even after many years, incomes are still below the provincial average. $45,000 $35,000 $25,000 All Immigrants Average incomes for the principal applicants under the Saskatchewan Immigrant Nominee Program (SINP) grow much more quickly. They are well above the provincial average after only three years in Canada. $15, Years Living in Canada March 17,

19 2013 INCOME BY CLASS OF IMMIGRANT SINP, spouses and dependents Skilled workers, spouses and dependents Average Employment Income in 2013 Among Immigrants in Saskatchewan, Landed in 2010 Refugees SINP, principal applicants Skilled workers, principal applicants number with empl income 245 1,450 1, This looks at a specific group of immigrants, namely the approximately 4,500 who came to Canada in 2010, were living in Saskatchewan in 2013, and had at least some employment income. The principal applicants under the SINP and other skilled worker programs had incomes well above the provincial average. Their spouses and children had much lower income. Incomes were also lower among those in the family class and among refugees. Family class 435 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 average income in 2013 (provincial average = $45,000) March 17,

20 2013 INCOME BY SEX Average Employment Income in 2013 Among Immigrants in Saskatchewan, Landed in 2010 The differential between men and women is just as pronounced among immigrants as it is in the Canadian born population. Both sexes 4,510 Women immigrants who came to Canada in 2010 had 2013 employment income that was 61% of the average for men. The provincial average was 65% in Women number with empl income 2,180 Men 2,330 $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 average income in 2013 (provincial average = $45,000) March 17,

21 2013 INCOME BY AGE AT IMMIGRATION Average Employment Income in 2013 Among Immigrants in Saskatchewan, Landed in 2010, by Age at Landing The employment income for immigrants across age groups in much the same way as it is for those born in Canada. 55 & older to to 44 1, to 34 1, to 24 number with empl income 365 Under $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 average income in 2013 (provincial average = $45,000) March 17,

22 RETENTION OF IMMIGRANTS TO SASKATCHEWAN 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Retention Rate (percent of those who landed in Saskatchewan who are living in Saskatchewan) arrival in Canada 2008 to to to 2001 The income tax records can also be used to track mobility. This shows that about a third of those who came to Canada in the late 1990s via Saskatchewan were still living here in The retention rate for those who arrived in the early 2000s started out higher but was, ten years after arrival, only 53%. 40% 30% Those who came after 2008 are on track to have a higher retention rate. 20% 10% 0% years since landing in Canada March 17,

23 ATTRACTION OF IMMIGRANTS Immigrants in Saskatchewan in 2013 by Original Province of Entry Atlantic <1% Quebec 2% Sask 76% Ontario 13% Manitoba 1% Alberta 4% B.C. 4% Saskatchewan has been reasonably successful in attracting those who immigrated to other parts of Canada. In 2013, 13% of the immigrant population in Saskatchewan originally landed in Ontario March 17,

24 SUMMARY The arrival of immigrants in Saskatchewan is arguably the most important demographic trend in the province over the past ten years. Unlike previous immigrants, many of whom were from Europe, the majority of recent arrivals are from Asia. The influx of immigrants has increased the number of young adults in the province. Most are coming under the Saskatchewan Immigrant Nominee Program. Three quarters of the employment growth over the past five years has been among immigrants and non-permanent residents. After three years in Canada, employment incomes of immigrants are near the provincial average above if they are the principal applicants under the provincial nominee program but below if they are refugees or spouses of principal applicants. The retention rate of recent immigrants is higher than it has been in the past. March 17,