Probing about the Root of Countryside Aging of Coastal Zones in ShangHai

Transcription

1 Probing about the Root of Countryside of Coastal Zones in ShangHai ZhangXiaoLi, ZhouJian Center for the Ocean Economy, ShangHai Ocean University, ShangHai, , China Received 19 March, 2014; Accepted 27 March, 2014; Published 17 July, Science and Engineering Publishing Company Abstract The paper mainly studied about the present situation and feature of aging in countryside of coastal zone in ShangHai by comparing. The result we got is that the rate of aging in countryside of coastal zone is higher than that that in total China, but is lower than those counties in center of ShangHai. There are 4 roots of aging in countryside of coastal zone. The first is that economic development and technical progression have brought out the decreasing of nature growth rate of. The second is that, at the beginning of China s reform and open to the outside, most from the counties of non coastal zone and the provinces out of ShangHai migrated to those counties, such as PuDong and BaoShan in near suburb. In recent years, many s migrated to NanHui and FengXian in far-suburb. Only a few s migrated to ChongMing and JinShan far from the center of ShangHai. The third is that, from the structure of age, the age of s who migrated to coastal zones are mainly yang. This brought out a lot of demographic gift in coastal zones in ShangHai, The last is for ChongMing county in coastal zone in ShangHai. By our study, as there were poor economic development and the poor condition of traffic. There were too many yang people migrated from ChongMing county to other counties, and these people are mainly yang and have high technology and knowledge. These are the reasons of ChongMing s high rate of aging. Keywords Coastal Zone; Nature Growth Rate of Population; Migration of Population The Definition of Coastal Zone in Shanghai In line with the definition released by State Oceanic Administration, the coastal zone is narrowly defined as county, county-level city, county-level district (including municipality and prefect-level city) with coastal line. Therefore, BaoShan, PuDong New Area, JinShan, FengXian, NanHui and ChongMing County are the coastal zone within ShangHai [1]. A total maritime area which surrounds these districts is up to 8000 square kilometer. With abundant maritime resources such as harbor waterway, wetlands, marine-related industries like fishery industry, coastal tourism, wind and tide, marine transportation, container port terminal, coastal tourism and fishery have been developed, which plays an important role in Shanghai s social economy development and people s happy life. Overview for the Present Condition and Features of Population in the Coastal Zone in Shanghai. TABLE 2-1 AGING POPULATION IN COASTAL AREAS IN SHANGHAI UNIT: 10 THOUSAND PEOPLE Total Population rate Permanent 2006 ( rate is in Shanghai) JinShan NanHui BaoShan FengXian PuDong ChongMing Total ( rate is in Shanghai) JinShan NanHui BaoShan FengXian PuDong ChongMing Total ( rate is in Shanghai) JinShan NanHui BaoShan FengXian PuDong ChongMing Total

2 International Journal of Sociology Study Volume 2, 2014 Overview for Population In accordance to the Shanghai Statistical Yearbook, Shanghai Suburbs Statistical Yearbook and the data of 6th national census, the agriculture and aging rate of Shanghai coastal zones from are summarized as follows. What s mentioning is that the data on NanHui is calculated on the proportion of the previous NanHui s accounting for the PuDong New. The data can be processed in this way because of the reason that the demographic statistic of NanHui district is comprehensive before it is incorporated into PuDong New Area. Besides, it is one of the important coastal areas in promoting the long-term development in maritime industry. TABLE 2-2 AGING POPULATION RANKING OF ALL DISTRICTS IN SHANGHAI NanHui JinShan SongJiang FengXian BaoShan QingPu MinHang Pudong New Area YangPu ZhaBei ChangNing PuTuo HuangPu JiaDing HongKou XuHui ChongMing County LuWan Jing An rate in NanHui SongJiang JinShan FengXian MinHang QingPu BaoShan PuDong New Area YangPu ZhaBei ChangNing PuTuo HuangPu JiaDing HongKou XuHui ChongMing County LuWan Jing An rate in NanHui SongJiang JinShan FengXian MinHang QingPu PuDong New Area BaoShan YangPu ChangNing ZhaBei PuTuo HuangPu JiaDing HongKou XuHui ChongMing County LuWan Jing An rate in Judging from the current collected data, the aging rate of all coastal areas is much higher than 10%, critical value set by UN. Current aging society in coastal areas is practically severe. Features Comparing with other s. On the perspective of aging, there exists distinct difference on aging rate of all districts in Shanghai. The aging rate of Shanghai in 2006, 2007 and 2010 is 20.2%, 20.8% and 21.6% respectively. rate ranking of all districts in Shanghai can be obtained from the table 2-2 From the table 2-2, following conclusion can be drawn: The aging rate of coastal area in Shanghai is lower than central areas like Jing An. The aging rate of coastal areas except ChongMing which ranks at the high-level for three consective years in Shanghai ranks top 8 among all the districts. Five out of the top 6 aging ranking are coastal areas. The non-coastal areas in Shanghai enjoy high aging rank except SongJiang, QingPu and MinHang. In 2007 and 2010, the other four coastal areas except BaoShan district, which ranks No.8, ranks top 5 in the aging ranking.2 The aging rate of coastal areas except ChongMing County in Shanghai is much lower Shanghai s average level. Comparing with other Provinces in China Here follows the aging rate comparison with other regions in China. We only take the data of 2010 only for convenience in analyses. First, from the perspective of the overall average level, the aging rate of Shanghai in 2007 is 21.6%. The average national aging rate is 9%. The age rate in Shanghai is much higher than average national level. Second, from the perspectivetion of comparing with each region in China. Shanghai s aging rate is highest in China reaching 21%. The aging rate of Chongqing is 12%, which is right after Shanghai. The aging rate of TianJin, LiaoNing, Jiangsu, ZheJiang, SiChuan, etc is 11%. Comprehensive speaking, the aging in Shanghai is more severe than any other region in China. Judging from the table 2-2 and table 2-3, the aging rate of the coastal areas in Shanghai is still higher than national average level though it is lower than aging rate of ShangHai. The lowest aging rate of coastal areas is 19.4% from table 2-2. Shanghai s and ChongQing s 116

3 aging phenomenon are two most severe areas reaching 21% and 12% respectively. The minimum aging rate of coastal areas in ShangHai is up to 19.4%. It is also a severe aging area. Region TABLE 2-3 NATIONAL AGING POPULATION RATE Population rate Region Population rate Nationwide 0.09 HuBei 0.1 BeiJing 0.1 HuNan 0.1 TianJin 0.11 GuangDong 0.07 HeBei 0.09 GuangXi 0.09 ShanXi 0.07 HaiNan 0.09 Inner Mongolia 0.08 ChongQing 0.12 LiaoNing 0.11 SiChuan 0.11 JiLin 0.09 GuiZhou 0.08 Hei LongJiang 0.09 YunNan 0.07 ShangHai 0.21 Tibet 0.07 JiangSu 0.11 ShaanXi 0.1 ZheJiang 0.11 GanSu 0.08 An Hui 0.11 QingHai 0.07 FuJian 0.1 NingXia 0.06 JiangXi 0.09 XinJiang 0.07 ShanDong 0.1 XinJiang 0.07 HeNan 0.08 Combining the analyses mentioned above and the related information, the aging rate of central Shanghai is higher than that of suburb Shanghai. The aging of coastal areas except ChongMing County is even lower among all the aging rate of suburb Shanghai. It is vise verse in inland areas. Because of the urbanization or tertiary education, a large number of rural youths and teenagers enter the secondary industry and tertiary industry of cities, which gives rise to remaining rural labor force tending to aging while this phenomenon is completely different in other coastal area in Shanghai, i.e rate in suburb area is lower than that of in central area. However, generally speaking, the aging rate of urban area is lower than that of rural area. The following section will explain it in detail. Underlying Reasons for Population of All Suburb Area in Coastal Zone Decreasing Birth Rate In 20 th century, persistent creative technology strongly pushes forward the world economy. Increasing income level and progress in medical technology contribute to the high survival rate and expanding to the average life span. Such progress results in low death rate, which reveals not only in the infant and low aging group but also in the senior citizen group [2]. Though the death rate of 1990s in Shanghai was stable with a slight increase, the overall death rate in the past six decade presents a downward trend. Therefore, the decrease of the death rate is a common feature in the social development. All coastal areas of Shanghai can t be exception. In addition, the birth rate in Shanghai drops dramatically wit the introduction of family planning policy. By 1993, a negative birth rate of Shanghai first appeared at that time and lasted for several consecutive years. TABLE 2-4 THE CHANGE OF INCREASE RATE OF POPULATION IN COASTAL AREAS, SHANGHAI AND WHOLE CHINA Natural increase rate(%) Region JingAn PuDong BaoShan JinShan NanHui FengXian ChongMing ShangHai Nationwide What s worth mentioning is that judging by the table 2-4 and China Statistic Yearbook, the birth rate of the urban Shanghai (taking JingAn as an example)is much lower than that of suburb area in coastal zone in Shanghai. The birth rate of suburb area in coastal zone in Shanghai is lower than that of inland China and average national level. Shanghai Municipal Government and all regions of coastal areas are restricted with National and Shanghai Family Planning Policy. The central Shanghai which opened up to outside world, built foreign concessions and traded with foreign countries is influenced by the urbanization, modernization, information and internationalization of foreign developed countries. The residents of urban areas are aware of the disadvantage of the high birth rate and its related consequence such as decreasing education, living standard and education cost. Therefore, the central city residents showed an earlier decline in natural growth and decline greatly. Before the reform and opening up policy, as the restricted conditions of transportation, communication and Shanghai s social economic development, such awareness of can only spread to a certain extent, to the suburbs of coastal area for maximum. It spends longer period of time to spread such awareness to distant inner mainland. Moreover, the social, economic, technological, cultural, historical difference 117

4 International Journal of Sociology Study Volume 2, 2014 toward presents a lag effect. Thus the rural residents of coastal area are affected by the impact of downtown Shanghai directly and quickly, therefore, they are aware of the risk brought by increasing and they carried out the Family Planning Policy thoroughly. The rural area of coastal area is later than the urban area but earlier than the inland area undergoing the rapid decline in the birth rate and sustainably growing life span. This is one of the reasons resulting the aging rate of coastal areas is lower than the urban area of Shanghai but higher than the average national level. Rising Migration Rate of Shanghai Caused by Shanghai Social and Economic Development. 1 Promote the increase of overall demographic dividend from migration Since 1950s, Shanghai s natural birth rate of tended to decline and in 1993 the natural birth rate of household became negative. However, the total of ShangHai still increased significantly year on year. Thus, since 1993, the growth rate of Shanghai household (as well as the resident ) is determined by external immigration. The following Table 2-5 reveals the information on permanent residents in Shanghai from 2000 to Judging from the table, the external permanent residents grow mildly after entering the 21st century. In 2005, it is up to 4.38 million, 147% of the From 2000 to 2010 period, the growth rate of the permanent resident is 17%, while during the same period Shanghai s resident increased only 5% and the external growth rate reached 73%, which nearly 15 times of the Shanghai residents growth speed. TABLE 2-5 SHANGHAI POPULATION GROWTH TRENDS UNIT: 10 THOUSAND Indicator Growth rate from 2000 to 2010 % Permanent residents at the end of year Household External staying for over half a year (Note: Data from the corresponding year of the "Shanghai Statistical Yearbook") The majority of the external are vigorous middle-aged or youths. According to the sixth census of the age structure statistics, the immigration of the aged over 50 accounted for only 6%, the immigration of the aged from years old accounted for 82.9% and the immigrated teenagers whose age under 14 is up to 11.4%, which is far more than the immigrated senior citizens. The immigrant workers who are under the age of 59 accounted for 23.13% of Shanghai s total, which eases the serious of aging caused by the decline of the birth rate. In a word, though the aging of Shanghai is serious ranking first nationwide, plenty of energetic external moved into Shanghai and added the demographic dividend for Shanghai. Different features of aging caused by the migration and distribution of in different districts Since adopting the reform and opening up policy, Shanghai has achieved rapid and sustainable economic growth, creating a lot of jobs conditions and favorable employment environment to attract a large number of migrants moving in. Meanwhile, the urban transformation, expansion and upgrading of industrial structure, spatial layout adjustments, and pushing forward the suburbanization of modern cities leads to changes of the migration of the city's. The dual function of the change of external and urban promotes the redistribution of the Shanghai s, which expands the development space for Shanghai, increase the comprehensive competitiveness of city and set favorable conditions for inter-coordination of urban economy and society and sustainable development. It also sets the different features of aging in coastal areas in Shanghai. In the 21st century, immigration of external and the migration of the urban are constantly reshaping the redistribution of the Shanghai s, which affects the features of the aging society of coastal areas in Shanghai. Spatial analyses Shanghai of migration in Since mid-1980s, Shanghai proposed to adjust industrial layout and released the policy on expanding the industrial to the suburbs area. Under the support of a series of policies, The big industrial companies (especially those polluting enterprises),central Shanghai has moved to the suburbs area one after another with the expanding tendency of suburbanization of. The 1990s is not only a vital period of Shanghai s construction and rapid economic development but also an important period of 118

5 reducing the in central Shanghai as the main feature of the modern urbanization accelerating and development, when the reconstruction of the old city of Shanghai and mass construction of the new suburb areas are conducted in large scale. Cross-district migration, especially the migration of proliferation from central area to suburb area, is persistently active with the demolition as main reasons. Since 2000, the large-scale reconstruction and revamping boom started in the 1990s tends to be stable. Population migration tends to be mild with the easing of industrial layout adjustment within the Inner Ring. Entering the new century, with the easing of reconstruction and the demolition of Shanghai, migration from urban area becomes stable or slightly decline. With the development of the Shanghai railway transportation and the economic growth in suburb area, migration especially the proliferation of the suburbanization remains to be continued. Spatial features of immigration of external. From the perspective of the immigration scale of external examining the layer of the central area, edge of the central area, suburb area and outskirts. The external immigrants moved to the suburb areas and outskirt, accounting for 46.5% and 26.7% respectively, TABLE 2-6 MIGRATION POPULATION RANKING OF ALL DISTRICTS UNIT: 10 THOUSAND Immigrant in 2000 Immigrant in 2003 Jing'An 4.64 Jing'An 4.25 LuWan 4.85 LuWan 5.12 ChongMing 5.40 ChongMing 5.41 JinShan 6.08 JinShan 7.52 HuangPu 9.43 HuangPu NanHui ZhaBei FengXian HongKou HongKou NanHui ZhaBei ChangNing ChangNing FengXian QingPu YangPu SongJiang XuHui YangPu PuTtuo PuTuo QingPu XuHui SongJiang JiaDing JiaDing BaoShan BaoShan MinHang MinHang PuDong PuDong (Note: Data from 2004 "Shanghai Statistical Yearbook") 73.2% in all. Only 26.84% of the immigrants choose to move to the non-suburb area. 5% or so of them choose to move to central area. The immigrants from outside Shanghai prefers to move to PuDong New Area, MinHang, JiaDing and BaoShan and SongJiang and QingPu in western Shanghai with 280 thousand immigrants and accounting for above 6% % and 13.37% of immigrants prefer to move to PuDong New Area and MinHang. On the contrary, few people prefer to move to central area like LuWan, Jing An. Outskirt area like JinShan and ChongMing have few immigrants originally. Secondly, from the perspective of immigration rate examining the layer of the central area, edge of the central area, suburb area and outskirts, the immigration rate of moving to the suburb area and outskirts is 35.13% and 28.17% respectively while the immigration rate of moving to the central area and the edge of the central area is 19.69% and 17.83% respectively, all under 20%. The immigration rate of moving to JiaDing, SongJiang, QingPu, MinHang, FengXian and PuDong are all over 30% and the immigration rate of moving to the JiaDing and SongJiang is 48.72% and 42.31%, which ranks top 2. The statistic mentioned above reveals the fact that the choice of the inhabitant area for immigrants is related to the urban planning on key new city s construction in Shanghai. Most immigrants choose to move into the newly built area with more opportunities. In a word, the immigrants moving into Shanghai will benefit the TABLE 2-7 THE CHANGE OF GROWTH RATE OF THE POPULATION DESITY IN DIFFERENT DISTRICTS AT DIFFERENT PERIOD % PuDong HuangPu LuWan XuHui ChangNing Jing An PuTuo ZhaBei HongKou YangPu BaoShan MinHang JiaDing JinShan SongJiang QingPu NanHui FengXian ChongMing (Note: Data from the corresponding year of the "Shanghai Statistical Yearbook") 119

6 International Journal of Sociology Study Volume 2, 2014 key new city s construction in Shanghai. Comparing with the result of the census conducting in 2000, the basic spatial model of the choice of the inhabitant area is stable. The immigrants prefer to move to the rural areas especially the suburb area. Some partial changes mainly presents as follows: The people prefer to move to MinHang and JiaDing instead of the PuDong and BaoShan in line with the survey conducted in The immigrants who move to BaoShan fell 6.49% comparing with the survey conducted in 2000 while the immigrants who move to JiaDing rise 2.25%. Table 2-7 shows the change of density of different districts at different time periods. We can infer from the table that from 1999 to 2003, the increment of density of all districts in Shanghai basically locates in suburb area like MinHang, PuDong, BaoShan and JiaDing or the outskirt like NanHui and SongJiang with the planning of the new city construction. Meanwhile, the density declined in central area like Jing An, LuWan and HuangPu and the outskirt like JinShan and ChongMing which are under performance in economy. During the period of 2003 to 2007, density of PuDong and BaoShan increases the fastest, followed by SongJiang and ChongMing while the density decreased in central areas like LuWan, Jin An and HuangPu and outskirts like JinShan and ChongMing. MinHang, which is locates at the edge of the central area, gradually enter the phase of the decentralization and presented a negative growth in density because of the booming in The change of the density of 6 coastal areas at certain period in Shanghai has been individually listed to illustrate the problems conveniently. TABLE 2-8 GROWTH RATE OF THE POPULATION DENSITY IN COASTAL AREA % Regions BaoShan PuDong NanHui FengXian JinShan ChongMing (Note: Data from the corresponding year of the "Shanghai Statistical Yearbook") Table 2-8 illustrates the increment of the density at different periods. PuDong which is among the 5 districts and one county coastal area in Shanghai and BaoShan which is a suburb area in Shanghai are the areas where more people flooded in because of the decentralization of the central area and the low living cost. The growth rate of the density in PuDong and BaoShan reached 17% and 64% respectively from 1999 to The number of the people who wants to move into the outskirts likes NanHui and FengXian is even larger with fast increase of density because of the new construction of the new city and lower living cost. The growth rate of density in NanHui and FengXian reached 7.8% and 2.2% respectively. The economic development level and the attractiveness of the employment of NanHui and FengXian is lower than those of PuDong and BaoShan because of the far distance to central area. Therefore, the density of NanHui and FengXian is lower than PuDong and BaoShan. JinShan and FengXian belong to the outskirt areas in Shanghai. The density of JinShan and ChongMing drops instead of increases because of excluding JinShan and ChongMing out of Shanghai economic development, their farther distance to central Shanghai and low employment attractiveness. The density of JinShan and BaoShan presents tends to be negative. That means in the past 10 years, the total of these two districts became fewer and fewer. The conclusion that intensified downward trend of JinShan and BaoShan can be drawn. The immigration of the in ChongMing, in particular, are serious because of the inconvenience of the transportation and legging economic development. The growth rate of the density from 1999 to is -7.7%. Analyses of the industry distribution for immigrant. From the previous analyses, the density of the coastal areas including PuDong, BaoShan, NanHui and FengXian is sustainably increasing and the density of JinShan and ChongMing is reducing. TABLE 2-9 CHANGE OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF RURAL EMPLOYMENT IN Year Region ALL DISTRICTS UNIT: 10 THOUSAND Bao Shan Pu Dong Jin Shan Nan Hui Feng Xian Chong Ming Agriculture Industrial Agriculture Industrial Agriculture Industrial (Note: Data from the corresponding year of the "Shanghai Suburb Statistical Yearbook") Meanwhile, the conclusion that the number of the rural employment of coastal areas who are devote 120

7 themselves to agriculture is reducing while the number of the rural employment of coastal areas who are devote themselves to the secondary industry and tertiary industry like industry, construction and public transportation is growing rapidly can be drawn from table 2-9. Two sides information can be concluded here. (1) The who move into the coastal area is non-agriculture or non-agriculture production (2) The agriculture-related employment of coastal rural areas shifts to the secondary industry or tertiary industry such as industry, construction and public transportation because of the urbanization. In terms of the basic requirement of education background toward the secondary industry and tertiary industry like industry and construction and the current condition of the rural labor force of coastal areas, especially those senior citizens, the of moving to the coastal area and shifting to secondary and tertiary industry must be those teenagers with certain education level and professional skills. TABLE 2-10 THE INDUSTRY DISTRIBUTION FOR IMMIGRANTS WHO MOVE Category INTO SHANGHAI UNIT: 10 THOUSAND Total 15~34 years old 35~64 years old Over 65 years old Total All professions Institution staff Commercial service staff Catering service staff Life service staff Staff of agriculture and farming Manufacturing staff Construction staff Operation staff Recycled staff Other (Note: The date is extracted from the 6th census of Shanghai) The age structure of the who move to the suburb The s who move to the suburb are mainly between 20 to 59 years old. The proportion of immigrant whose age are between 20-29, 30-39,40-49 and are 19.5%, 12.6%, 27.7% and 16.8% respectively. People whose ages are between are preparing for getting married and the shelters are eagerly needed. People whose ages are years old are the period of getting more income and adding more family members and more living space is needed. People whose ages are years old are the period getting success in his/her career and the most frequently to change the shelters [4]. Therefore, the immigrants flowing to Shanghai and more suburb flowing to non-agriculture coastal area are two main reasons resulting in the low proportion of the aging. The outing of agriculture employment of coastal areas aggravates the aging of the coastal areas. That means urban areas share more dividend from the Shanghai s immigrant while the aging of rural area becomes worse. Conclusion After concluding the previous analyses, comprehensive reasons including the development of social economic development, progress in scientific technology, the decline of the birth rate and migration of the give rise to the aging of central Shanghai higher than that of coastal area in suburb, outskirt and other regions outside Shanghai in order. The aging rate in rural coastal area is higher than urban coastal area. The urban coastal area benefits from the dividend brought by immigration. The central Shanghai is aware of the disadvantage of the over which is earlier than the suburb area and outskirt because of its special history and politics background and close contact with many countries in trade so that the aging rate of urban area is higher than that of suburb area and outskirt in turn. Therefore, the negative growth rate appeared in central Shanghai, suburb and outskirt in order and the growth rate is lower than average national growth rate, thus it becomes the source of the current aging in coastal rural area in Shanghai. The main features of the cross-district migration and migration of external are concluded as follows by occasion of the reform and opening up and the economic development. The of central area tends to be saturated so that few people move to central Shanghai. PuDong New Area and BaoShan belong to suburb areas. Many immigrants move to outskirts like NanHui and FengXian for the gradually increasing living cost, easing development speed and the new developing policy though the city revamping, transportation and living cost especially the price of shelters are low at the beginning of the reform. Few people intend to move to JinShan and ChongMing because of their poor public transportation and economic conditions. From the perspective of age structure, most of them are youths. From the perspective of the occupation distribution for those 121

8 International Journal of Sociology Study Volume 2, 2014 immigrants, they are devoting themselves to the secondary industry, tertiary industry or non-agriculture. The agriculture employment is decreasing due to the urbanization. Therefore, aging in rural coastal area is increasingly serious due to the emigration of the large number of and urban coastal area will benefit more from the dividend brought by immigration. ChongMing is a special district where the aging rate is always in high level among the districts of Shanghai. That is because ChongMing is a suburb city which is far away from urban centers with poor economic development. In addition, the traffic between ChongMing and other districts is inconvenience because a river separate ChongMing from urban centers. Therefore the aging rate which caused by natural growth rate is much lower than that of urban centers, suburban districts and other suburb districts before reform and opening up. As the change of reform and opening up policy as well as household registration system, the economic development has great improvement in urban centers. Meanwhile, the development gap between ChongMing and other districts became much more significant because the positioning of ChongMing was ecological island built by protecting environments in that time. Thus, the income level and living standard decreased greatly. Under such circumstance, there are few people from other cities or districts moving into ChongMing. Furthermore, many young labor forces with skills and culture quality immigrate from ChongMing through various ways. As a result, the density decreases yearly, the proportion of senior citizens becomes higher and the higher so that aging rate ultimately pop out. Coastal rural area and non-coastal rural area are all suburb areas in Shanghai before comparing them with single economic developing structure before introducing the reform and opening up policy. The economic development of rural coastal area depends on the resource of inland mostly. The ocean resource had little contribution to these districts. With the development of reform and opening up policy, more and more immigrants flood to Shanghai. The resource shortage of Shanghai shows up and then it constrains the economic development greatly. In this time, the investment and improvement of Pudong WaiGaoQiao port area, PuDong international airport and BaoShan port push forward the economic development of these two districts. Then the constriction of Nanhui YangShan deep-water port and LinGang New city also makes a huge push to the NanHui s economic development. And JinShan tourism resorts push forward the economic development of JinShan as well. The utilization of ocean resource has not been applied in FengXian and ChongMing so that the economic development is still at the bottom of coastal area. For the increasing intensity of marine resource utilization, there is still big room for the economic development in coastal areas. And the shortage of high-level talents is still significant. Thus, the aging rate of coastal areas will be higher than national average level but lower than that of the central area in a short time. However, when the s of coastal areas are saturated, the aging rate of rural coastal areas will be so high that it will do harm to the production of Shanghai s agriculture. Furthermore, the aging rate will worsen the social economic development greatly when the dividend disappears. So the aging rate problem needs to be solved as soon as possible. ACKNOWLEDGMENT The study was collaboratively supported by social science fund of ShangHai and 085project of Education Committee of ShangHai. The number of the project is 2009JG023-BJB210. The reason the study cited data of 2010 was mainly that the dated from 6 th census of was very authority. REFERENCE Chen XinDe etc, Pension: policy and practice[m], Beijing, Peking University Press,2010: Gao XiangDong, etc, Suburbanization of Shanghai s and its tendency[j], Journal of East Normal University (Social Science Edition), 2003(3): Marine information center of SOA, China Marine Statistic Yearbook, Beijing, Ocean Publication, 2009: Wang GuiXing, etc, Study on emigration of Shanghai s and its redistribution[j], Population Study, 2010(1): Zhang XiaoLi earned her master s degree in mathematics from XinJiang University in 1995 and a PhD in econometrics from South West Traffic University in She is a professor and vice- director of the Center for Ocean Economy at Shanghai Ocean University. Her 122

9 main areas of research are econometrics, environmental economics, industrial economics, and ocean economics. She is currently a visiting scholar at the Center for the Blue Economy at the Monterey Institute of International Studies. 123