SECURITY RISKS ADD TO ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY IN LEBANON

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1 N 46 July 2016 Page 3 Room rates tumble in Beirut as Gulf tourists keep away Page 4 Public debt sees slower growth, default risk rises Page 5 Trade deficit widens to $6.8bn through May on rising fuel imports Page 6 Negative impact from oil prices in 2016 World Bank Page 7 Latest data for Lebanon s key economic sectors Page 8 Key trends in the Lebanese economy SECURITY RISKS ADD TO ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY IN LEBANON Banks ramped up their lending through April Solidere expects land sales of $211m in 2016, announces $35m cash dividend Remittances from the GCC to decelerate in 2016 World Bank A series of blasts in June added to uncertainty over the prospects for the Lebanese economy in the second half of The country s main sectors, including real estate, construction, tourism, and public spending, all appeared to be picking up in the early months of the year, but their outlook for the rest of the year will now increasingly depend on the security situation. Political consensus over national security appears to be holding up well despite a crippling political crisis, but intensification of the conflict in neighboring Syria in recent months may cause occasional spillovers. The economy is still grappling with a political standoff that has left the country s top post vacant for over two years, and delayed much-needed infrastructure reforms and the development of the oil sector. As a result, Citi, a US-based investment bank, sees the Lebanese economy contracting by 0.5% in 2016 amid sharp deterioration in governance. At the same time, the bank warned of serious implications should the US introduce sanctions against Lebanese banks following the introduction of the Hezbollah International Financing Prevention Act, a scenario that the bank described as unlikely in the foreseeable future. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY WAS ACCELERATING BEFORE THE BLASTS Banks were ramping up their lending activity prior to the blasts in June, offering crucial fuel to the economy. Credit to the private sector rose by 7.3% yoy to $55.2bn in April, equivalent to $974.1m in production in the first four months of the year, the most for the period in four years. Value of real estate sales () Lebanon: foreign direct investment () Source: Cadastre, Economena, SGBL Research Source: UNCTAD, Economena, SGBL Research ext.11210

2 Total arrivals also increased by 9.9% yoy to 576,042 in the first five months, including 17.3% yoy to 147,095 tourists in May alone. The biggest momentum came from record Egyptian and Iraqi arrivals, helping offset a depressed level of arrivals from the Gulf Cooperation Council. Fiscal resilience and the government s strong liquidity position drove Moody s Investors Service in June to affirm Lebanon s sovereign B2 ratings despite continued political vacuum in the country. Government revenues were robust through March 2016, with tax income rising by 9.1% yoy to $1.67bn in the first quarter, its fastest pace in four years, reflecting renewed momentum in income, property and customs taxes. REAL ESTATE AND CONSTRUCTION IMPROVING Real estate transactions regained their footing in the first few months of 2016 with sales rising by 17.8% yoy to $3.43bn through May. Cement deliveries, a proxy for construction activity, grew by 19.6% yoy to 1.58 million tons by April, their fastest pace for the period in over a decade. The positive trend was confirmed by Solidere, the publicly-listed developer of Downtown Beirut, which announced land sales worth $158m in the first half of 2016, and stated that it expects sales to reach $211m by the end of the year. Solidere reported a net loss of $87.2m in after its land sales slumped to just $26.8m and provisions surged to $104.2m. The company reported a net loss of $87.2m in after its land sales slumped to just $26.8m and provisions surged to $104.2m. Despite its losses, Solidere declared in June $35m in cash dividends for shareholders, equivalent to $0.1 per share, citing resilient foreign operations and a positive outlook for HEADWINDS FROM LOW OIL PRICES AND THE GCC Real estate activity in Beirut still faces serious headwinds, led by waning demand from Gulf investors and their decreasing liquidity following the drop in oil prices. Foreign direct investment in Lebanon is already at a 14-year low, having dropped by 19.5% to $2.3bn in with few signs of a recovery in the near term. Low oil prices are also likely to take a toll on remittance inflows, deposit growth and export activity. Remittances to Lebanon fell by $240m to $7.2bn in, with those from GCC countries projected to decelerate in 2016 as fiscal buffers in Gulf countries erode and spending cuts ensue, according to the World Bank. Remittances may be further weakened by a possible mass dismissal of Lebanese expatriates from Gulf countries, according to the World Bank. Following a political spat with Lebanon, Saudi Arabia recently cancelled a three billion dollar weapons grant, and along with other Gulf countries, warned their citizens against unnecessary travel to the country. Measures taken by Saudi Arabia are likely to negatively impact confidence and increase political tensions in the short-term, but they remain economically manageable, stated the World Bank. Lebanon s balance of payments posted a deficit of $899.1m through April. Nevertheless, decelerating remittances will still place additional strain on the balance of payments, already under pressure due to lower inflows, according to the World Bank. Lebanon s balance of payments posted a deficit of $899.1m through April, adding to a cumulative deficit of $9.4bn over the previous five years. Growth in private sector deposits has slowed considerably in recent months, likely a result of weaker remittances and rising regional risks. Deposits grew by 3.7% yoy through April to $152.9bn, their slowest pace since the cedar revolution over a decade earlier. Banks took in $1.34bn more in deposit from the private sector in the first four months of 2016, less than half the amount they brought in during the same period in. Claims on the private sector (Jan-Apr, $m) Private sector deposits (April 2016, ) 2,667 1,880 2,289 LBP, 53.9, 35.3% FX, 99.0, 64.7% Source: BdL, Economena, SGBL Research Source: BdL, Economena, SGBL Research

3 TOURISM ROOM RATES TUMBLE IN BEIRUT AS GULF TOURISTS KEEP AWAY Gulf tourists down to 4.7% of total through May Room rates tumble to $129 in April, lowest in nearly a decade Tourism receipts may fall by 2% to $6.6bn in 2016 Average room rates at Beirut s 4- and 5-star hotels tumbled to $129 in April, their lowest level in almost a decade, as tourists from Gulf countries shunned from Lebanon for the fourth year in a row. Visitors from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are typically more likely to book pricier luxury hotel rooms than their Arab peers given their higher disposable income. GCC tourist arrivals fell by 32.7% yoy to 27,447 through May, just 4.7% of the total during the period and around a fifth of their level over the same period in In particular, the number of visitors from Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar continued to decrease at the start of the 2016, amid elevated political discord with Lebanon. GCC tourist arrivals fell by 32.7% yoy to 27,447 through May, around a fifth of their level over the same period in In contrast, arrivals from Bahrain, also a member of the GCC, rebounded to a 6-year high of 3,984 visitors in the first five months. More foreigners visited Lebanon in the first five months of the year, helping revive hopes for a rebound in the tourism sector during the coming summer season. However, two explosions in recent days, one targeting a bank in Beirut and one at a border checkpoint with Syria, are likely to dampen expectations, particularly for the Fitr holiday in the first week of July. Total arrivals rose by 9.9% yoy to 576,042 in the first five months, including fast growth of 17.3% yoy to 147,095 tourists in May alone. Much of the momentum came from record numbers of visitors from Egypt and Iraq, themselves struggling to cope with rising insecurity. Arrivals from Jordan rose for the second year in a row, but they remain at a third of their pre-syrian conflict levels. The conflict blocked transit routes for tens of thousands of Jordanian tourists who used to visit Lebanon by land every year. Meanwhile, higher tourist arrivals were offset by an increasing number of Lebanese tourists abroad. Lebanese tourists in Cyprus surged by 40.7% yoy to 10,592 visitors in the first five months of the year, their highest level for the period in over two decades. The number of Lebanese visiting Egypt also soared by 29.7% yoy to 18,077 in the first quarter of the year, despite multiple security incidents in the country. Lebanese tourists in Cyprus surged by 40.7% yoy to 10,592 visitors in the first five months of the year, their highest level for the period in over two decades. Indeed, imports of tourism services, including travel expenses by Lebanese people, are projected to cost the country $4.6bn in 2016, according to the Institute of International Finance, while tourism receipts are seen falling by 2% to $6.6bn during the year, leaving the economy with a $2bn tourism surplus. Tourist arrivals to Lebanon (Jan-May 2016) Average room rate at Beirut hotels ($) 370 Others 29% W. Europe 23% 320 Australia 4% GCC 5% Jordan 5% Egypt 6% 576,042 tourists N. America 13% Iraq 15% Source: CAS, Economena, SGBL Research Apr-10 Apr-12 Apr-14 Apr-16 Source: Ernst & Young, Economena, SGBL Research

4 GOVERNMENT PUBLIC DEBT SEES SLOWER GROWTH, DEFAULT RISK RISES Gross public debt rose by 3.2% yoy to $71.7bn through April Lebanon has $500m in Eurobonds maturing in 2016, $2.28bn in 2017 Credit Default Swaps touch 500 basis points in June Growth in Lebanon s public debt has slowed considerably in recent months even as the government presides over a prolonged economic slowdown. Gross public debt inched up by 3.2% yoy to $71.7bn through April, an increase of $2.2bn over the previous 12 months. Economic activity has slowed to a two-decade low, but government revenues continued to hold up surprisingly well through March Tax revenues rose by 9.1% yoy to $1.67bn in the first quarter, their fastest pace in four years, building on renewed momentum in income, property and customs taxes at the start of the year. Tax revenues rose by 9.1% yoy to $1.67bn in the first quarter, their fastest pace in four years. Fiscal resilience and the government s strong liquidity position drove Moody s Investors Service in June to affirm Lebanon s sovereign B2 ratings despite continued political vacuum in the country. The government's debt structure has improved, with a relatively high maturity of 4.5 years on government securities, lowering the borrowing requirements and providing some protection against future increases in global risk premiums and interest rates, stated Moody s. Lebanon still has a $500m Eurobond maturing in November 2016, to be followed by $2.28bn in non-paris 2 or Paris 3 Eurobonds in The government has typically rolled over maturing Eurobonds but requires parliamentary approval to raise additional amounts. Nevertheless, Moody s maintained a negative outlook on the country s ratings citing risks associated with the delay in policy action to reduce the fiscal deficit, including passing budgets, subsidy reforms and raising new revenue. Risks to Lebanon s financing capacity have also increased as a result of a slowdown in deposit growth, a large current account deficit and the elevated political and geopolitical risks, according to Moody s. Indeed, Credit Default Swaps, the cost to insure against default, surged to 500 basis points in the second half of June from around basis points at the end of. Although trending upwards, yields on local and foreign currency debt have yet to catch up with the Lebanese government s rising risk profile. The weighted average yield on Treasury bills reached 7.01% in April up from a low of 6.58% at the end of 2012, while average rates on Eurobonds inched up to 6.71%, their highest level in two years. Credit Default Swaps surged to 500 basis points in the second half of June from around basis points at the end of. The government has been increasingly shifting to foreign currency to keep its debt servicing costs in check, but those savings are offset by the issuance of longer-term local currency securities which typically carry higher coupon rates. By April 2016, the Lebanese government had $27.6bn in outstanding foreign currency debt, equivalent to 38.6% of gross debt. Gross public debt () f Source: BdL, World Bank, Economena, SGBL Research Yields on T-bills and Eurobonds 8.5% 9.0% Eurobonds T-bills 8.0% 8.5% 8.0% 7.5% 7.5% 7.0% 7.0% 6.5% 6.5% 6.0% 6.0% Apr-10 Apr-12 Apr-14 Apr-16 Source: BdL, Economena, SGBL Research

5 TRADE TRADE DEFICIT WIDENS TO $6.8BN THROUGH MAY ON RISING FUEL IMPORTS Fuel imports are rising again, widening the country s trade deficit Saudi Arabia remains top Arab customer with 11% of exports through May Balance of payments deficit swells to $899.1m through April Lebanon s trade deficit widened by $933.1m yoy to $6.75bn in the first five months of 2016 amid further weakening in export activity and resurgence in the country s energy import bill during the period. Exports fell by 12.8% yoy to $1.1bn through May, their lowest level since 2008, as sales to Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE alone plunged by over $106.1m over the period. Foreign sales of fertilizers and electrical machinery posted the sharpest downturn over the period, plunging by 88% yoy to $3.7m and by 25.9% yoy to $71.4m respectively. A five-year conflict in Syria has raised the cost of transporting goods from Lebanon to the main Arab export markets, and is expected to continue to pose a heavy drag on export activity despite a recently-enacted assistance program to facilitate maritime shipping, according to the Economist Intelligence. Even with more complex transportation logistics and slowing demand, Saudi Arabia remains Lebanon s biggest Arab customer, taking in 11% of exports, or $123.8m, in the first five months. The Gulf country topped the list of importers of Lebanese vegetable products with $4.03m through May, as competition from Syrian produce continues to falter. Saudi Arabia remains Lebanon s biggest Arab customer, taking in 11% of exports, or $123.8m, in the first five months. Recovery in oil prices may also help prop up demand in the Gulf in the next 12 months, providing some impetus for Lebanese export growth. Brent crude oil is projected to recover to an average of $52 a barrel in 2017, nearly 20% above its 2016 forecast level, according to the US Energy Information Administration. On the other hand, Lebanon s imports staged a comeback at the start of the year, buoyed by resurgent imports of fuel. Imports of mineral products, including fuel, rose by 65.8% yoy to $1.9bn through May on the back of an even faster increase in the quantity of imported oil, while the price factor was minimal. Purchases of foreign vehicles and pharmaceutical products, Lebanon s second and third largest import categories, also surged during the period. Imports of vehicles rose by 10.2% yoy to $673.6m, and those of pharmaceuticals by 9.9% yoy to $516.3m in the first five months, indicating resilient consumer demand. Imports of vehicles rose by 10.2% yoy to $673.6m in the first five months, indicating resilient consumer demand. A rebound in imports will likely support trade finance activities at Lebanese banks. Documentary credit opened for imports rose in April for the first time in over a year, pointing to a possible continued increase in imports. However, a widening trade deficit is likely to increase pressure on Lebanon s balance of payments which already posted a deficit of $899.1m through April, adding to a cumulative deficit of $9.4bn over the previous five years. Trade deficit (Jan-May, ) Top export destinations (Jan-May 2016) Others 54% South Africa 13% Saudi Arabia 11% UAE 10% Syria 6% Iraq 6% Source: Customs, Economena, SGBL Research Source: Customs, Economena, SGBL Research

6 NEGATIVE IMPACT FROM OIL PRICES IN 2016 WORLD BANK Real GDP growth to accelerate to 1.8% in 2016 Deceleration in remittances is main risk to growth Industrial parks and ICT offer untapped potential The negative impact of lower oil prices is expected to be a new development in 2016, stated the World Bank in its semi-annual Lebanon Economic Monitor. Remittances to Lebanon and service exports, particularly consulting, to the Gulf Cooperation Council countries are projected to decelerate during the year as fiscal buffers in Gulf countries erode and spending cuts ensue. Remittance inflows to Lebanon have already come in softer in recent years, falling by $240m to $7.2bn in, but the downtrend may become more severe in 2016 after public spending in Gulf countries adjusts more fully to the sharp decline in oil revenues. Decelerating remittances will place additional strain on the balance of payments, already under pressure due to lower inflows, according to the World Bank. Consumption too will be negatively impacted by lower remittances, offsetting the initial increase in real purchasing power from lower oil prices. Remittances may be further weakened by a possible mass dismissal of Lebanese expatriates from Gulf countries, according to the World Bank. Following a political spat with Lebanon, Saudi Arabia recently cancelled a three billion dollar weapons grant, and along with other Gulf countries, warned their citizens against unnecessary travel to the country. Measures taken by Saudi Arabia are likely to negatively impact confidence and increase political tensions in the short-term, but they remain economically manageable, stated the World Bank. CHALLENGES LOOMING FOR MONETARY POLICY The use of monetary policy by Banque du Liban to promote economic growth and to maintain the stability of the peg to the dollar at the same time is expected to become more challenging over the short to medium term, predicted the World Bank. In particular, BdL will face pressure to raise domestic interest rates in order to maintain exchange rate stability following the normalization of global interest rates. World Bank forecasts for Lebanon, June 2016 e 2016f Real GDP (% change) 1.5% 1.8% Real GDP per capita (% change) 0.5% 0.9% Nominal GDP () CPI inflation (% change) -3.7% 1.5% Money (M3) (% change) 5.1% 6.0% Government revenues (% of GDP) 21.6% 21.8% Government spending (% of GDP) 28.9% 29.2% o/w interest payments (% of GDP) 8.7% 9.1% Budget balance (% of GDP) -7.3% -7.4% Primary balance (% of GDP) 1.4% 1.7% Current account balance (% of GDP) -23.2% -21.3% Total debt stock () Debt-to-GDP ratio (%) 148.7% 154.1% Source: World Bank, Economena, SGBL Research At the same time, while a series of stimulus packages by BdL offering subsidized loans have helped boost economic activity, the Central Bank will need to pay more attention to household leveraging and repayment capacity. As a result, despite monetary policy being one of the few effective countercyclical policy tools during the current period of sluggish growth, it will likely become a less potent economic stimulant going forward, stated the World Bank. Meanwhile, public finances are projected to remain structurally weak in the absence of significant reforms. The fiscal deficit is seen widening to 7.4% of GDP in 2016 and to 8.7% of GDP by 2017, on the back of higher debt servicing costs due to pass through from rising global interest rates. INDUSTRIAL PARKS AND ICT OFFER POTENTIAL A recently-announced plan by the Ministry of Industry to develop industrial zones across Lebanon and clustering potential for the ICT sector could help the country reduce its dependency on financial inflows to finance its budget and trade deficits, according to the World Bank. In particular, industrial parks and special economic zones can help mitigate macroeconomic imbalances by raising net exports, reducing the current account balance and increasing foreign direct investment. However, the World Bank recommended that special care be taken in offering fiscal incentives which evidence suggests are ineffective and might instead lead to distortions such as the relocation of existing businesses to the zones rather than the establishment of new business. Lebanon s technology scene is also becoming increasingly attractive, stated the World Bank, with an estimated 160 startups operating in the country of which an estimated 30 have received equity funding of some type. The development of the ICT sector in Lebanon would be a step towards sustainable growth given it is less prone to external shocks than tourism and real estate, Lebanon s traditional growth drivers. Remittances and service exports () Workers' remittances Service exports Source: World Bank, Economena, SGBL Research

7 Key indicators Cleared cheques Real estate transactions Construction permits Cement deliveries Tourist arrivals Airport traffic Balance of payments Money supply: M3 BSE volumes Passenger car sales Hotel occupancy (average) Sqm, m Tons, m m m m % , , Apr , May n.a n.a. n.a , %Y/Y YTD , PYTD , Indices Consumer Confidence Index - ARA Consumer Price Index Purchasing Managers' Index BdL Coincident Indicator Apr May n.a. %Y/Y %YTD Trade Imports Exports Trade balance Port of Beirut volumes TEUs, m Feb Apr %Y/Y YTD PYTD Financial and monetary Commercial bank assets Claims on the resident private sector Claims on the non-resident private sector Claims on the public sector Resident private sector deposits Dollarization rate (average) Non-resident private sector deposits Dollarization rate (average) Private sector deposits with commercial banks Private loans / deposits Public sector deposits BdL foreign assets BSE market capitalization Gross public debt % % % Feb Apr %Y/Y YTD %YTD Public finance Revenues Value Added Tax Telecommunications Income taxes Customs Expenditures Transfers to EdL Debt service Primary balance Fiscal balance $m Jan Feb %Y/Y YTD YTD: year-to-date, PYTD: previous year-to-date. Source: MoF, BdL, BSE, ARA, Customs, Markit, EY, RHIA, CAS, Economena, SGBL Research PYTD

8 Exports to the GCC ($m, 12-month moving sum, y/y change) Lebanon s exports to the GCC have tumbled by over $168m in the 12 months through May The slump represents a significant negative shock to the economy equivalent to an estimated loss of 0.3% of GDP during the period Treasury transfers to municipalities ($m) The government transferred a record $502m to municipalities in the first quarter of Transfers to local authorities have been increasing steadily in recent years even when excluding their share of telecom revenues, placing more pressure on public finances May-13 May-14 May-15 May-16 Source: Customs, Economena, SGBL Research 0 1q07 1q10 1q13 1q16 Source: MoF, Economena, SGBL Research CPI for new rent (May 2016, %yoy) Rental prices have maintained their upward trend particularly outside Beirut despite sluggish economic activity. Rents increased by 1.86% in the 12 months through May 2016, including 4.9% in the Bekaa and 1.4% in Beirut. Alpha banks securities portfolio as of March 2016 () Banks are increasingly relying on Central Bank Certificates of Deposit to indirectly finance the state deficit. Local currency CDs made up 31% of the securities portfolio of Alpha banks, those with over $2bn in deposits, in the first quarter of Bekaa South Nabatieh 2.9% 2.8% 4.9% BdL CDs, USD, 5.6, 8% Others, 8.9, 13% BdL CDs, LBP, 21.6, 31% Mount Lebanon 1.9% National Beirut North 0.7% 1.4% 1.9% Lebanese Eurobonds, 17.0, 24% Lebanese T- bills, 17.0, 24% Source: CAS, Economena, SGBL Research Source: Bankdata Financial Services, Economena, SGBL Research TRAVEL THE WORLD AND WE LL COVER YOU SOGEMONDE THE TRAVEL INSURANCE